Oakland / Indiana Total

I haven’t had the time to post regularly in the forum like previous years, but had a few extra moments this afternoon and thought I’d share some thoughts on a total I like tonight beyond the 140 characters that another platform allows for.  (For those that do remember my write ups, you’ll know that my handicapping is very statistical based)

First post of the season

Play: Oakland / Indiana Over 153

If there is one thing consistent with Oakland under Greg Kampe, it’s that the Grizzlies want to play fast, and will trade defensive intensity for offensive firepower. Looking at the last 4 years, Oakland has never ranked lower than #31 with respect to pace nationally, never averaged less than 1.046 ppp, and always allowed 1.040 ppp or more.  With respect to offensive and defensive efficiency, nothing has changed this year (1.079 adjO and 1.074 adjD).

Where we do get some “value” tonight I believe is with the pace rating -- as early season statistics place Oakland just below the national tempo average of 68.5 ppg at 68.2 ppg. However, they have played to 74 and 72 possessions vs their L2 D1 opponents. And now tonight, they should get every opportunity to get out and run as they visit Assembly Hall and face an IU team currently ranked 19^th in pace nationally (this will actually be the fastest paced team Oakland has faced thus far this season).

But it isn’t only pace that there is to like in this game as the strengths and weaknesses of each team would also point to an abundance of scoring opportunities. First, the Hoosiers get to the FT line a ton as they rank #13 in FTA/FGA, and get nearly 30% of their offense from the charity stripe (#9). This doesn’t bode well for an Oakland team that struggles to play defense without fouling (#309 in FTA/FGA) and gives up 25.5 (#70) of their points on the defensive end at the FT line.

But let’s go one step further. If an IU possession doesn’t result in a FT attempt, or made shot, (or turnover) then what? Well on missed shots, only 2 other teams in the country rebound the ball on the offensive end better than the Hoosiers.  This is significant with respect to not having empty scoring possessions – but even more significant when you consider that Oakland ranks in the bottom 50 nationally for giving up offensive rebounds.

All these factors point to a high scoring night for Indiana, a team who already is averaging 89 ppg at home and has already eclipsed the century mark 3x in 9 games this season.  And with the expected pace of the game to have 70+ possessions (KenPom predicts 73), it shouldn’t be too much to expect Oakland to score 65+ points themselves tonight.

Good luck if you decide to make a play

Very valid counterpoint (which are always welcomed).

But it is difficult for any team to start the season on the road at UNC and UCLA, especially teams with the height/length that those teams have. The Gonzaga game, despite only scoring 67 points, was a very efficient game for them since there were only 59 possessions.

In fact, after those initial games for Oakland, their pts per possession in the L6 have been a very respectable 1.14, 1.04, 1.00, 1.19, 1.28, 1.01

Good to see you posting bud. GL this year!