Oh Smitten Oh Smitten!! After a bad day always comes my finest!! Sharpie bet 800k on this play!!

Crazy to think the heavier ML doesn't cover! 

Actually, this isn't that simple. I've seen this scenario before in the NFL, college football. Odds makers will increase the juice on a particular side of the spread because:

-there is A LOT more money on that side of the spread

-want to charge bettors more for taking a side (thereby discouraging taking that side with a heavier juice price). They will lower the juice on the opposing spread to create 50/50 action.

-THEY DON'T WANT TO MOVE THE SPREAD. (Most likely important reason)

Just because the juice is higher on a same spread doesn't necessarily equate to an increased probability of a team covering.

Flawed system, just like any system

Supposedly overpaying on the vig compared to the vig on similar lines is a fools errand

And does not signal in any way a "W"

Two ways I would look at this:

1. If the ML is higher on Auburn, but the lines are the same.... That would mean that the books are wanting you to take Auburn. They are not bumping it to -9 for a reason. This would make me think Sparty -8.5

2. The ML is higher on Auburn, but the line is the same as Sparty. This could lead me to think that there is more value in Auburn - 8.5.

So which is it? Am I a pessimist or an optimist??

I must say, good debate about line theory though.. Very thought provoking.. 

Ole Miss 1-8 on the road this year and Auburn is undefeated at home. I think that is suffice too. 

Iowa also a losing record on the road this season and we have a 24 ranked team as almost dbl digit favs over an 18 ranked team. We all know what's fresh on everyone's mind is the comeback iowa performed to beat Minnesota on the road. I think MSU rolls tonight.

How ab a 5 point tease. Get Auburn and Mich St at minus 3 each. I love that! 

I also think CLEMSON ML is a great play, I'm a Georgia Tech fan. I think Clemson rolls. 

I also like Kentucky -6 and over 129 LARGE.

ALABAMA ML

BAYLOR-14 LARGE

UNC ML LARGE

Wake Forest 1H +7 LARGE

BOL to everyone tonight. I'm already locked and loaded on every play I just mentioned.

9 plays total!!

Another thing to look at is how the teams are playing currently. At 10-6, the Spartans and Hawkeyes are in the midst of a four-way tie for second place in the Big Ten standings. However, these two teams have been trending in opposite directions as of late. Michigan State has dropped four of its last six conference games while Iowa has won four of its last six. 

you are correct it’s not that simple but otoh it is especially if both games start at different time slots where the first game would have a final before the second one begins.  At that point you would use Pattern behavior as your tool and nail the bitches 90+% of the time.  

For example... last season in NFL  I will give you just one example   There are hundreds of them tho    Go to week 16!!   Look at all the home favorites that were -8     

At 1pm et you had the falcons cover with the lower ml

Now at 4pm you had 3 games   1 with the identical ml as the falcons   The other 2 the same ml but both being completely over inflated!   The results were both teams with lower ml won   Both teams with higher ml lost outright!    

There is a way to decipher without using Pattern behavior (needing an outcome of one to know what the outcome of the other will be) and that is knowing how to use the money lines and the first half spreads!   

In today’s case the spreads for the money line are identical   However the computation of the first half money lines simply don’t add up   

and this is what I love doing brother.  I want to discuss with everyone.  Get people looking beyond the stat sheets and into deeper learning of the lines 

Kent State -10 ml -548

Ball Sate -10 ml -558

Based on this, Ball state should cover and Kent State should not?

Notice how the annoying Hating Plague has spread?

#2 is what I believe.   It’s not 100% by any stretch but it’s been proven over and over again that Auburn today is a trap for the let’s fade the public bettors. Meaning the let’s fade the public bettors are believing Betts f against auburn is the play and they get it up their asses