Posted:
#1
I'll be making a large play on this game -- I'm gonna hit the UNDER 136.5
rather hard for me (3 units). For point of reference, I try to limit
my plays to 1-3 units, with probably 90% of my plays being anywhere from
1 to 2 units.
Why the UNDER 136.5? I'll tell you why I think there is significant value to this number:
First -- UCLA has been really starting to click on the defensive end the last 3 games, all home games. The stats tell it obviously on first glance as they gave up 54, 59, and 50 points to Oregon, St. Johns, and USC respectively. Howland has finally got this team to understand that if you bring it on the defensive end of the ball, you can win games, and UCLA has the athletes to actually play pretty good team defense. UCLA is phenomenal on the glass as they have 3 of the top 12 rebounders in the conference (#3 Nelson, #4 Honeycutt, and #12 Smith average a combined 23 boards a game) while OSU's top rebounder averages 6.5 a game for 10th in the conference. UCLA should be able to effectively control the glass against Oregon State and should be able to limit second chance opportunities.
Second -- Oregon State has to know that the only chance they have to win this game is limit the number of possessions, cut down on their turnovers (which should eliminate a lot of UCLA fast break points if they are successful in being patient and making smart passes), and make UCLA work for the rock. UCLA could have trouble today offensively as Oregon State runs a 1-3-1 zone which, if anyone has followed Ben Howland's tenure at UCLA, just seems to absolutely flummox him in terms of his ability to counter-punch with a set offense than can beat a 1-3-1. Remember when UCLA was loaded, absolutely loaded with NBA talent a few years ago and they still lose to West Virginia twice when they were running the 1-3-1 exclusively? UCLA has scored 65 (@ WVU on 2/11/07), 56 (vs. WVU on 1/21/06), 69 and 79 vs OSU in 2008-2009 when Craig Robinson first arrived and the talent was very bare in Corvallis, 62 and 65 in 2009-2010 once Robinson got OSU playing the 1-3-1 regularly, and of course 62 points this year. Outside of Robinson's first year, UCLA has averaged an even 62 points per game against a 1-3-1 zone in the last five times they've faced one. That, as much as it pains me to say, speaks to a coaching deficiency more than anything else. This isn't the first time that UCLA sees a 1-3-1 zone, but it will be basically the only time they have shredded one if they can get to 74ish points. I'll take my chances that they don't do it again... history repeats itself for Howland's UCLA teams against a 1-3-1 zone. If you've followed them like I have since Howland arrived, you know this to be true.
Third --
"On Thursday, the Beavers lost to Southern California because they had too many turnovers and could not convert on the turnovers they created.
Oregon State's last 6 game totals: 123, 116, 124, 126, 142, 122. Five of six go wayyyyy under this total while only one goes over by 6 points.
Last time these two teams played earlier this year, they scored a combined 119 points. So what has changed now that gets books to release a line 17 points higher? Well first, the original game total on Jan 13 was 144 (in retrospect, that may be one of the worst lines of the year in the Pac-10) so we are actually getting a smaller line, but can the books really jump any more than 8 points on the second game?
Oregon State's last 6 games has them averaging 58.5 points per game, and that's somewhat skewed by their 68 point effort against Washington. Other than that, they'd had scoring nights of 56, 55, 56, 57, and 59. If they stay in that 56-60 range against UCLA today, I think this total definitely goes UNDER.
Neither team is particularly strong from the line, with both shooting under 68% from the line as a team.
Everything says UNDER to me in this game... so how do we lose this bet? A few ways: (1) Either team gets ridiculously hot from the arc or (2) the Pac-10 refs decide they want to play touch basketball and we get more than the 42 FTs we got in the January game between these squads.
Fourth -- let's talk important trends.
OSU is 6-0 UNDER in their last 6, a staggering 25-6 UNDER in their last 31 games as a dog between 7 and 12.5, 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage over .600, and 12-4 UNDER in their last 16 road games.
UCLA is 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 home game, 4-1 UNDER in their last 5 games following a SU win, and 8-3 UNDER in their last 11 overall.
Good luck to everyone, curious as to others' thoughts as always
Why the UNDER 136.5? I'll tell you why I think there is significant value to this number:
First -- UCLA has been really starting to click on the defensive end the last 3 games, all home games. The stats tell it obviously on first glance as they gave up 54, 59, and 50 points to Oregon, St. Johns, and USC respectively. Howland has finally got this team to understand that if you bring it on the defensive end of the ball, you can win games, and UCLA has the athletes to actually play pretty good team defense. UCLA is phenomenal on the glass as they have 3 of the top 12 rebounders in the conference (#3 Nelson, #4 Honeycutt, and #12 Smith average a combined 23 boards a game) while OSU's top rebounder averages 6.5 a game for 10th in the conference. UCLA should be able to effectively control the glass against Oregon State and should be able to limit second chance opportunities.
Second -- Oregon State has to know that the only chance they have to win this game is limit the number of possessions, cut down on their turnovers (which should eliminate a lot of UCLA fast break points if they are successful in being patient and making smart passes), and make UCLA work for the rock. UCLA could have trouble today offensively as Oregon State runs a 1-3-1 zone which, if anyone has followed Ben Howland's tenure at UCLA, just seems to absolutely flummox him in terms of his ability to counter-punch with a set offense than can beat a 1-3-1. Remember when UCLA was loaded, absolutely loaded with NBA talent a few years ago and they still lose to West Virginia twice when they were running the 1-3-1 exclusively? UCLA has scored 65 (@ WVU on 2/11/07), 56 (vs. WVU on 1/21/06), 69 and 79 vs OSU in 2008-2009 when Craig Robinson first arrived and the talent was very bare in Corvallis, 62 and 65 in 2009-2010 once Robinson got OSU playing the 1-3-1 regularly, and of course 62 points this year. Outside of Robinson's first year, UCLA has averaged an even 62 points per game against a 1-3-1 zone in the last five times they've faced one. That, as much as it pains me to say, speaks to a coaching deficiency more than anything else. This isn't the first time that UCLA sees a 1-3-1 zone, but it will be basically the only time they have shredded one if they can get to 74ish points. I'll take my chances that they don't do it again... history repeats itself for Howland's UCLA teams against a 1-3-1 zone. If you've followed them like I have since Howland arrived, you know this to be true.
Third --
"On Thursday, the Beavers lost to Southern California because they had too many turnovers and could not convert on the turnovers they created.
The Beavers shot 40.4 percent from the field and were 1 of 11 from the 3-point line.
"The first part of the Pac-10 season we weren't playing defense like we should have been and our offense was better," Robinson said. "Now that were playing better D, it's like our offense is not playing as well."
That's not gonna get easier when playing a UCLA team that has held opposing teams in Pauley the last three games to an average of 54.3 points per game.Oregon State's last 6 game totals: 123, 116, 124, 126, 142, 122. Five of six go wayyyyy under this total while only one goes over by 6 points.
Last time these two teams played earlier this year, they scored a combined 119 points. So what has changed now that gets books to release a line 17 points higher? Well first, the original game total on Jan 13 was 144 (in retrospect, that may be one of the worst lines of the year in the Pac-10) so we are actually getting a smaller line, but can the books really jump any more than 8 points on the second game?
Oregon State's last 6 games has them averaging 58.5 points per game, and that's somewhat skewed by their 68 point effort against Washington. Other than that, they'd had scoring nights of 56, 55, 56, 57, and 59. If they stay in that 56-60 range against UCLA today, I think this total definitely goes UNDER.
Neither team is particularly strong from the line, with both shooting under 68% from the line as a team.
Everything says UNDER to me in this game... so how do we lose this bet? A few ways: (1) Either team gets ridiculously hot from the arc or (2) the Pac-10 refs decide they want to play touch basketball and we get more than the 42 FTs we got in the January game between these squads.
Fourth -- let's talk important trends.
OSU is 6-0 UNDER in their last 6, a staggering 25-6 UNDER in their last 31 games as a dog between 7 and 12.5, 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage over .600, and 12-4 UNDER in their last 16 road games.
UCLA is 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 home game, 4-1 UNDER in their last 5 games following a SU win, and 8-3 UNDER in their last 11 overall.
Good luck to everyone, curious as to others' thoughts as always
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