$$$ PURDUE @ Minnesota Write-up & Wednesday Plays $$$

NCAABB YTD: 171-150-14 (+24.95 units)

Tuesday Record: 5-3 (+4.91 units)

PURDUE (23-3, 11-3) @ MINNESOTA (16-10, 7-7)

This has trap play written ALL over it.  The Barn is no easy place to play.  There are 3 keys I see for this game.

#1) Minnesota needs a good start – This is relatively an easy assumption.  If Minnesota can get the crowd into the ball game early and can get the Gophers confidence up early with a big run, then that would bode well for Minnesota.  The Gophers have always been a team that finishes like the way they start a game.  They are a team that is almost the same from start to finish.  If the Gophers play with heart, determination, and with a lot of energy, expect the Gophers to give Purdue all they can handle.

Though, if Purdue gets off to a big run early in the game, takes the Williams Arena crowd out of the game, then I think things could go south for Minny.  Purdue has been the official “road warriors” of the Big ten.  They have gone into Assembly Hall, the Breslin Center, and Value City Arena and come out with huge victories.  This is a team that will not get rattled, and this is a team that gets off to great starts on the road.  If Purdue jumps out early on the Gophers, it could be game over.

#2) Handling the Pressure – When you go up against a Tubby Smith team, how you handle their pressure defense will be a huge factor.  In the last time these two teams hooked up, Purdue had a LOT of turnovers, and were lucky to be winning the game the way they were playing.  Minnesota did have a lot of success early in the game forcing Purdue into mistakes, and Purdue can’t afford to turn the ball over like they did in Mackey earlier this season, especially when this game will be played in Williams Arena.

Minnesota, without a doubt, is going to pressure Purdue just like they did back in January, but they have to be very careful.  Playing that pressure defense is risk-reward.  If Minnesota doesn’t get back defensively, with Purdue breaking down their pressure, then they will give up a lot of easy transition buckets.  I don’t think Minny will do it for 40 minutes, that is obvious, but they got to pick and choose their times correctly if they want to be successful.

#3) Keaton Grant – Purdue is a hard team to beat with Lewis Jackson healthy, and with the big 3 making big time shots.  Though, Purdue is almost impossible to beat if Keaton Grant joins into that mix as that fourth or fifth consistent scorer for Purdue.  Grant, after being benched for Kelsey Barlow, has finally awoken from his shooting slump.  Grant is shooting 50% from three point range in the past 2 games, and is averaging 14 points in that same time span.  If Keaton Grant continues his great play, along with the others doing their job, Purdue will not go down at Minnesota.

As for the Gophers, I would let Grant shoot.  I would test him early on in the game, or whenever he gets in, and to make sure he is fully back.  I would love to think that Grant is out of his slump, but the past 2 games could have been a fluke.  Though, if Grant is continuing that great play, then I will start to guard him more aggressively on the perimeter.

In the end, the line is low, given the toughness it is for a Tubby Smith team, revenge game, a big home court advantage, and with Michigan St on deck for Purdue.  Purdue wins this game, but VERY close (4 points or so).  To be safe, my pick is:

PURDUE ML (10 units)

And I want to remind everyone to BET WHAT THEY CAN AFFORD.  Just because I’m going big on this play doesn’t mean everyone else should as well.  I’m up over double what this play will be, so if I lose I can still move forward.  Tread lightly people and be smart with your money is the best advice I can give you.

Other LEANS for Wednesday:

Ohio ST. -7

Dayton/Temple Over

PITT +1

ST John’s 1H

St Louis +4.5

Texas A&M +7

Oklahoma St +9

Maryland -5

San Diego St +8 (Looks Real Nice)

South Florida +13

ECU/SMU – See LuDawg

There are a TON of games I’m liking tomorrow, going to be a lot of work to trim it down.  Purdue is the only certain play right now.

BOL

 that was one of my best plays ive had in a while - it was only a one unit play, thats not the reason.  But able to see the matchup and understand why the line was so low with the public still hammering N.M. made it a very good play.

your Longhorns -9 tomorrow?  gotta be kidding me! only first glance though

Quote Originally Posted by FoCo:

Great Fade on the CSU game..... I am impressed I will tail you from this day forward

Never tail without looking into games yourself.  Big rule when gambling

but thanks for the love

Quote Originally Posted by cgonzo84:

Hey bro, FoCo, beat me to the LOVE...I know you were on the RAMS early  last night and stuck to your guns! Congrats!  Looking into this Purdue game as we speak!

ur boys played with a lot of heart tonight, im sure it was a good game to be at...if i remember correctly u were at the game

and they have struggled at times on the road...one game comes to mind was @ iowa when they were down late in the 2nd half before winning by just 8

i still think that they are a far superior team though

i would've bought it down to at least -1 or PK... i got -160 ML

its not going to be a cake walk like most people think.  But the line will def. grow as the day goes on.  Early indication has 98% on purdue, went from opening at -2 to -3 already

texasfan - ok. st has kansas on deck at home, so ur boys may be the better play.  But i cant lay much on Texas bc they are like UNC right now and play like crap a lot

I considered the ML but didnt want to give up 40or 50 basis points, they will win or lose by 6-8 pts and i'm hoping your boys come through