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#1
Kansas is a hot public play after destroying Sparty 90-70. Can we expect a repeat against Purdue? I think we are more likely to get something different, and that's because of the match-up. One aspect of which is Purdue's dominance in the interior. The score in the Michigan State is actually quite deceiving. For one, Jackson had an amazing game. I attribute this to the emotion that was pushing him because of his ties to the Michigan State players and to Miles Bridges' awful defense. Two, Nick Ward, Sparty's big man, was in foul trouble during the game. As their primary rebounder and rim protecter, he had to overextend himself against the better rebounding of Kansas and got a lot of fouls early on. Sparty was actually competitive with Kansas while he was on the court. At one point in the second half, the announcers mentioned that Sparty was -18 points without Ward on the court. They lost by 20, the spread was 8.
So the interior play, I think, is an enormous factor for evaluating this game against the spread. I expect Purdue's big men, Swanigan and Haas, to have a big game against a relatively soft interior of Kansas. Lucas will be last week's Ward, he should get in foul trouble against Purdue's strong interior. Let's look at some of Kansas' last big 12 games: at Baylor, Lucas had 4 fouls, and had just 8 points and 7 rebounds. Being in foul trouble, he could not be as aggressive as he was against Sparty, where he had 10 points and 11 boards, and maintained a more significant presence inside. Against WVU the game before, he likewise had 4 fouls (8 points, 13 boards), and against the tall Red Raiders he had 4 fouls, (13 points and only 5 boards). Against Purdue, I expect Lucas to get into foul trouble. Even with Lucas, I expect Purdue to dominate in rebounding and second chance points. According to SBR: Versus Big 12 opponents pulling down more than 34.5 boards per game on the year, Kansas was 1-6 ATS (5-2 SU), failing to cover by 5.5 points per contest. The Boilermakers' 55.1 team total rebounding percentage ranks 11th nationally. The rebounding differential has proven to be an edge in Kansas games and I think it will be one against Purdue. Kansas is simply outclassed in the interior.
A major concern for a Purdue backer is Kansas' front court. Purdue has the 17th best defensive efficiency but they do not steal the ball and do not otherwise force turnovers. Mason, Jackson and Graham will definitely get their chances and they definitely have the talent to succeed. In Purdue's worst losses, they have had trouble guarding those guard/forwards who are able to drain threes but also drive to the basket. In their loss at Iowa, Jok scored 29, in their loss at Nebraska, Mcveigh scored 21, in their last loss vs Michigan, Wilson scored 26. Purdue's worst losses have tended to come on the road and usually also as large favorites. They tend to play down their opponents. On neutral court, I think they have proven to be able to hang with the most offensively potent and guard-centered teams. They beat Notre Dame earlier in the season, they took Michigan to overtime, they beat Iowa State, shutting them down from the perimeter, as ISU had to claw its way back from an enormous deficit to still lose by 4, going overall 7/23 from behind the arc.
One concern, still, is the home court advantage for Kansas. This advantage is factored into the line, as KenPom has Kansas winning by 3, and the line is 5. Kansas, however, is just 7-13 ATS at home. They tend to be overvalued at home, maybe they don't give their best performance at home (like San Diego Toreros, like the St. Louis Cardinals in baseball? I don't pretend to understand sports psychology). Whereas Purdue has held its own on neutral territory, including winning its last regular season road game at Northwestern.
So, I think Purdue can stay within the spread. I don't see this as a large wager because I think Kansas definitely wins this one SU--I love the x-factors Jackson and Mason to ensure that they advance. But I think, in sum, it telling how consistently poorly ats Kansas has done in the Big 12 against the dominant rebounding teams, how competitive Sparty was when Ward was on the court, how poor ats Kansas is with home court advantage, and how Purdue enjoys a mental advantage when they are not large favorites. I think the public could bet this up to 5.5 or 6. Purdue scraped by at the end against Iowa State while Kansas lit the floor against Michigan State. This discrepancy in appearance could augment the value for Purdue. Maybe Jackson has a bit of a let-down after lighting up his old buddy Miles Bridge. But even if he doesn't, I feel pretty confident that they can stay within three possessions.
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