Purdue v.s. Sparty....

Season:        69 - 69; with Texas and La. Tech pending

Sparty Bets:  12 - 6

Michigan State -2.5....I heard from a very reliable source that as of right now, Lucas is expected to play sparingly.  IMO, that alone will be the spark to really re-energize this team.  However, I'm betting this as if he has no direct impact on the game itself, other than the emotional lift.  I certainly don't expect 15 points and 6 assists from him.  As long as Izzo's experiment with Chris Allen at point guard is over with, Sparty should be fine Tuesday night.  Lucious had his fair share of TO's v.s. Illinois, but back at the Breslin, he should be more comfortable.  Hell, even the walk-on Kebler played decent Saturday when they called on him.

The main reason I see Sparty covering this is REBOUNDING.  It's very likely they out-rebound the Boilers by 15 boards.  Purdue is getting out-rebounded on the season and MSU averages 9 more rebounds a game then their opponents.  Last year at the Breslin, Purdue shot 17-60 and got outrebounded 42-26.  Those numbers right there are how Izzo wins games, defense and rebounding.  I don't think Painter can outcoach Izzo.

In Purdue's 3 game losing streak, they were outrebounded by an average of 7 boards per game.  They got dominated on the glass by Northwestern, a team that Michigan State destroyed on the glass this season.  I know it ain't pretty, but that's how Sparty has made 5 of the last 11 Final Fours. 

I did a little research, in the last 12 seasons or so, MSU has had 15 different scenarios where they lost two straight games.  In those games that followed, MSU went 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS.  And when the scenario was coming home off B2B road losses, they were 6-1 both SU and ATS. 

One positive that came from the Illini game, was Draymond Green is becoming an absolute beast down low.  You can pretty much pencil him in for a double-double against PU.  And ask yourself this:  Do you really want to bet against Izzo at home off B2B losses in the heart of the Big Ten race?  I think Sparty pulls away in this one and then Purdue returns the favor in a few weeks.

Good luck ya'll !!!

* I'm heading to Orlando Thursday and I'm gonna just take four full days off from gambling to relax and spend time with the fam.  For Saturday's game, I'd lean towards taking Penn State +the points.

the loss of lucas will be big - i think he will play but wont have much of an impact.

The rebounding aspect is spot on.  MSU should control the boards.

control of the big ten on the line, so both teams will come out energized  this is going to be a great game, and I'll leave it at that

Totally disagree with you. Purdue is far superior defensive team in my opinion than Illinois. Kramer is a great defender and will give Lucious and everyone else fits running the point. Also MSU will have a tougher time with Johnson than they did with the weak Illinois big men.

Purdue knows if they win tomorrow they will control their own destiny to win the title. So I expect Purdue to bring their A game and if Lucas can only do token minutes than I like the Purdue moneyline

I like UNDER 138.5 right now, with a smaller lean on Sparty.  They are not happy about losing on Saturday and won't drop two straight. 

Both teams possess solid players, coaching, etc.  This will be close, but I say MSU by 3-6 or 7, depending on how close PUR can really keep it. 

I see tight, defensive play that will lead to multiple one and done possesions.  The tempo may start fast, but will slow quickly and before you know it, we get our typical Big 10 62-53 decisions. 

I see Sparty controlling most of the way at home, with the late FT shooting to keep it out of reach of the small number.

Thoughts?

person SAYS MAKE

Are you saying this game means more to PU than it does to MSU?  It's of equal importance, if anything more important to Sparty because they still have to go to Mackey.  How do you make up for getting outrebounded by at least a dozen in a very hostile environment and likely making less than 25 FG's with a coaching disadvantage?

I can definitely see the under cashing!!

heart

ben

buck

I like it a lot more now, lol. 

person SAYS MAKE

Lucas is hurt...so yes it means more to Purdue...its a golden chance to win at Breslin...which doesn't happen often. MSU of course is going to play hard. They know they need to win this. I just think Purdue sees the blood in the water and will attack and win.

How do you make up a rebounding disadvantage? Its called turnovers partner. If you really follow MSU basketball you know that MSU kills itself with them. And when your missing your star player it makes keeping to's down alot harder.  Can MSU win? Of course they can...if Allen-Summers and Morgan play better than they did in Champaign they should win. But if Lucas can't go or plays little and MSU struggles from the perimeter I think Purdue with Hummel and Johnson will be to strong.

Talk me out of the under chief and I will buy you mICKEY mOUSE EARS.

Accept my friend request would love to meet up while I am down here.

No, I don't.  I've been bluffing the last 5 years on this site.  Purdue commits their fare share of tunrnovers also.  In fact, PU's assist/TO ratio is 1.30 and Sparty's is 1.23 and typically the road team has more TO's than they average and the home team has less than they average.  I know Sparty will commit their fare share of TO's, but they've always done that and still been able to win games like this. 

I can't talk you out of the UNDER, because I like it also.  I'm really trying to stay away from playing the side and total in the same game, it never seems to pan out for me.  But I will say this, Purdue has given up 70+ in each of their last 4 road games and look at these opponents (Wisky, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana), not exactly the most efficient offenses in college basketball.  That's what was the deciding factor for me to stay away.  But overall, I do think this would stay under, I'm just more confident that Sparty covers.

I may have a couple of hours of free time Saturday night, but other than that I'm booked solid with a wedding, reception, dinners, Disney, etc.  How's the weather? 

Fellas,

This was good stuff. I am convinced with my pick of MSU!!! This will be a good one. BOL

Agreed. 

, I just a read an article on a local forum around here with Sparty players saying this game is of extreme importance and they're excited to get back home.  Regardless of the outcome, we're gonna get a great effort out of this team.

If Lucas doesn't play this will be a tough game to win. All of the pressure is on State to hold serve here. And without your star player that makes accomplishing that very very difficult. MSU averages 17+ turnovers a game in their losses. It was the main reason they lost to Illinois on Saturday. MSU rebounded and shot well but turned it over 18 times. Kramer is arguably the best on ball defending guard in the Big Ten. He is going to hawk and force turnovers.

Certainly I hope State wins...but this is a really bad spot for them

If that logic actually worked, we'd all be millionaires!!!!

Adding one more:

Wake Forest -6

Was gonna bet Vandy, but stayed away.