Posted:
#1
Been posting plays elsewhere, but haven't done any writeups in a long time. Felt like spewing some nonsense, and this seemed like the appropriate place.
Underdogs typically dominate this day every year. I recall two years ago having my best day of the season on this particular day. You'll notice a consistent theme - players want to get home for Christmas. The books have gotten better at adjusting, but some of these still look a little heavy.
Northern Illinois +18.5
I'm a big fan of fading teams who just played their "best" game. Notre Dame started slow, but kicked it into high gear in the middle of the first half and mopped the floor with Purdue. That was an important game in a big-time environment with all four schools (Indiana, Butler) bringing major fan turnout. Now, they turn around 48 hours later for a game with a mid-pack MAC team in a half-empty building. Like many private schools, ND relies heavily on student support to fill its gym. Most of the students are not from the area and have already gone home for break. The players will be heading home after the game for a four-day layoff with their families. NIU is no world-beater, but they compete their a$$es off, and Montgomery is an Izzo disciple who demands constant effort. They'll bang the crap out of the offensive glass (41.9%, 9th in the country) and catch an ND team that doesn't put any pressure on the ball (NIU turns it over a ton). IF ND carries over its hot shooting, this one might be a rout, but I'll take my chances with the spot and a hopefully lax Irish squad.
Tennessee-Martin +16.5
Similar theme here, though Butler is off a loss on Saturday in a tremendously intense, physical, and exhilarating with in-state rival Indiana. While the Dawgs have traditionally responded well after losses, it's hard to envision an optimal effort here 48+ hours removed from a draining effort in their most highly-anticipated non-conference game. Meanwhile, UT-Martin looks like a totally different team from what we've seen the past several years. Schroyer is an excellent coach, but even the most optimistic observer would have been hard-pressed to see him turning it around this quickly. The Myles Taylor injury hurts, but DeVille Smith (former UNLV starter) is doing an excellent job running the point and he's surrounding by a cast of upperclassmen (12th oldest team in the country). Only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that it's the fourth game in seven days for UTM.
Dartmouth +8.5
Dartmouth ML +400
Not a lot to say here. Hoped to get 10+, but I've been looking for a spot to fade Penn State and this should be it. Chambers in doing a helluva job and has accumulated a good deal of talent. He's got long-standing Philly ties (he was Jay Wright's top assistant at nOVA for years) and has cultivated those relationships in order to bring in legitimate B1G kids. That said, this group is in uncharted waters right now. At 11-1, they've already set a school record for non-conference victories and only lowly Dartmouth stands between them and a full week of adulation from friends and family at home. Problem is, this Dartmouth team is a rather uncomfortable opponent. They refuse to be sped up (#335 tempo) and run a methodical offense through a legitimately skilled, Euro-style big man (Maldunas). They've played a dogsh*t schedule, but this will be the "super bowl" of their non-conference slate. I'd be shocked if there's more than 3,000 people inside the Bryce Jordan Center (capacity: 20,000). Place will be a morgue. Combine that with Dartmouth's style, and Penn State might be in for a grinder.
East Tennessee State +19
I'm always hesitant to fade VCU at the Siegel Center, but exceptions can always be made. Couple things to point out here. First, that win over Cincy on Saturday afternoon was gigantic. This team badly needed a signature road win, and VCU not only got its win, but played a fantastic all-around game in the process. They banged home 15 (!!!) of 31 threes, and stifled the anemic Cincy "offense" at the other end of the floor. Shaka's offenses are always reliant on the three-ball, but this was impressive even by their standards. Like many other heavily-favored home teams playing tomorrow night, I question the level of focus here, especially after a dominant win on the road against a high-quality opponent just two days ago. For ETSU, their game plan is pretty simple. They'll sit back in a zone and let VCU bomb away from deep. Of course, this can two ways: either VCU's hot shooting carries over from Saturday, or the numbers even out and the Rams fire up a bunch of ill-advised scud missiles. At the other end, ETSU has a slew of ballhandlers to deal with the VCU press (40th fewest turnovers in the country) and have had nearly a full week to prep for Havoc. ETSU's interior defense is awful, but VCU should be content to bomb away from the perimeter. Oddly enough, ETSU was the opponent two years ago when Troy Daniels buried 11 threes in a single game. Not relevant, just thought it was interesting.
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