1. Georgia -12.5(-110) *1.25/1.14 units
Here's how I'm looking at this one. Missouri has had only 3 road games this year:
Won@Tulane(-10.31 adjEM)
Won@Northwestern(-10.46)
Lost@Illinois(+9.66) by a score of 75-66
This will be their first true road test being an SEC game. And this Missouri squad is young and inexperienced, rated 344th out of 351 teams in terms of experience. They are lacking depth at the Forward position, one transferred a couple weeks ago, and another recently got injured(both backups) Another is questionable today, another probable(both backups).
Georgia bangs down low, they slash and drive to the hoop. They draw 20.5 fouls per game. If Missouri finds themselves in foul trouble with their front court starters they are toast.
For Georgia, losing to South Carolina in their last game made "this" game that much more important to them.
"That's why the other night, letting one slip away was so big," senior Kenny Paul Geno said, "Instead of being 2-0 in the SEC, you're 1-1. Saturday's game is even bigger. You never want to be under .500"
And where is Missouri mentally after losing 5 games in a row?
Kim Anderson quote after being asked about the challenge in playing Georgia: "I probably won't talk about it much," he said after the 88-77 loss to Louisiana State, "I don't want to give them something else to worry about. Just go out there and play"
Sounds rather deflating from their coach.
Is there anything Missouri does well? Yes, they guard the perimeter well. They allow 6.7 tre's per game and hold their opponents to 29.9% from the arc. But Georgia's game is not from the arc. They make only 5.2 per game(324th in hoops) Like I said they cut and slash to the hoop. This game will be won or lost down low. So having a good perimeter defense is like trying to hit a long range target with a shotgun, it's useless here.
Georgia has a 51% 2pt percentage, Missouri has a 47% 2pt percentage.
SOS is gonna play in this one I believe. Missouri has faced the 326 rated oppD this year by KP. Georgia has the 44 adjD. That's a big gap. A few of Georgia's losses have come against super tough schools. The Tigers have lost to a couple scrub schools.
Laying 12.5 pts feels like a lot, and it is. That's the only thing keeping me from making this a 3 unit play cause any crazy thing can happen for a brutal backdoor.
Other than that I think Georgia should spank the Tigers
Saturday Hoops Baby! GL!
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