Posted:
#1
52-37-3 +15.03
Finally a play I'm feelin the double down on. Only 4th double donker of the year so far, am 3-0 at least tho
Played this around 530 and thought I posted it before running out the house but apparently the recaptcha got me
2.2 / 2
St MAry's -4 @ lmu
I really like this spot here, both teams with a week to prepare, one team coached by the proven randy bennett, whose team has shown improvement of late and appears to be ascending. The other coached by Mike Dunlap, who has yet to prove he can even coach a team to a .500 conference record, and whose team has not appeared to be getting better at all.
I just dont see this proving to be some kind of "statement game" for lmu that they are contender for top tier of conference. They're 13-3 and will likely still have a sub .500 conf record. They've shown a pretty ugly floor lately, with a terrible loss to riverside and getting blown away by pepperdine and ucla (the alford ucla). Their best player Batemon had to play the full 40 minutes in a home game against a weak portland team in their last game.
This is not a great mary's team, but they looked to be getting it in gear starting with 2nd half of san fran game and aside from an early season 16 pt loss to utah st, they are at worst always very competitive. They've had numerous close losses to respectable teams.
I see 2 scenarios for this game, 1) mary's comes out strong and controls the game and pulls away. 2) It's a tight game only this time Mary's gets over the hump down the stetch and pulls it out against a team they shoot significantly better than and protect the ball much better than. LMU, even at home, is not wku @ diddle, san fran in san fran, or lsu on neutral court (recent close mary's losses). They're undefeated at home because they faced mostly weak teams. Just a very mediocre team that doesnt shoot well and has been showing signs of stagnation. In this scenario there is a chance mary's could win and not cover, in which case I will be utterly devasted, but I gotta take my chances there. I did hope this line would come out at -2 or -3, but I'll be surprised if mary's doesnt play well enough here to get this done.
will add a few tomorrow , gl bros
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