Second Round NCAA Plays

let's go Jordan

Yep, like that one too.

how confident are you on new mex?

(Live) Vanderbilt ML +210 (0.5 units)

Pretty confident. Hoping to see a +2 pop up somewhere before tip-off so I can add another unit on the Lobos.

I think that Baylor number is to large at 8. Last time they played in Baylor it was 8. Think Col is in peak mode right now so why not a play on them. Any thoughts welcome

Finals:

Colorado +8 vs. Baylor (1 unit)
New Mexico +1 vs. Louisville (1 unit)

Out for the evening. Good luck all.

(Live) Georgetown -6.5 (1 unit)

Not happy about taking an inferior line but everything I hoped to see from Georgetown has been playing out. The sagging defense is going to force NC State to win the game from the outside and that's fine with me. Keep in mind as well that Sims has sat for the past 7 minutes and the Hoyas have looked fine.

Last 5 games at home for Oregon 96 94 90 78 82 This game could hit 180 total. Reminds me of Indiana and Iowa.  Mich St. St. Louis last game was like a scrimmage for St. Lets see some defensive today under 124. Im enjoying watching Purdue play as they are not just a few players but a team now. Thats it unless you can tell me why I like Lehigh today just something about that X team that tells me they will have problems today. Hell of a shot by Hollaway at the end last game.

Crazy how quickly the momentum changed in this game. Totally agree though --- Sims being out was huge, and if they can limit the turnovers and continue to defend in the half court, things should be fine. I still think you have a decent shot at covering that number. I took GT -4 2h myself.

Agree with your leans on both totals. Haven't looked into Oregon-Iowa much, but the pace there should be blistering. I don't foresee Michigan State being bothered by the snail pace of Saint Louis as the Billikens play like your traditional Big Ten team. Both coaches are defensive wizards and I've noticed Michigan State will usually play to the pace of the opponent. Like that one a little more than Oregon-Iowa.

As far as the other game, I'm on Xavier. LOVE Lehigh and have been a big fan of them over the last two years. McCollum is obviously phenomenal but Mackey McKnight doesn't get enough love. He's a very solid point guard. My issue with Lehigh today is a possible emotional letdown coming off of the Duke upset. Letdowns are hard to fathom in the NCAA tournament as every game is do-or-die, but beating Duke was the biggest win in program history while Xavier kind of expected to be in this position at the beginning of the season. Sure, McCollum can take over games at the end, but Xavier has two guys who can do the same thing and have the experience of playing in multiple tournament games. Guessing it's a close game for most of the way with Xavier pulling away at the very end to win by 5-8.

Hey bud. Only thing I can play on the SLU-Sparty game is the under. I worry about Saint Louis' ability to hit enough jumpers to hang around and in a game that will likely be played at a scary slow pace, any deficit of more than a few points will seem like an uphill climb. The good news is that their help defense is insanely good and Appling will have a tough time finding driving lanes. Not sure if they have an answer for Draymond Green. My guess is they start Conklin on him, which could be a nice battle. Tough, tough game, IMO.

I'm going to be on Ohio against South Florida. Yeah, I'm going to torture myself one more time by betting against USF. But Ohio does something that South Florida hasn't seen in awhile: press and trap. The Bobcats are second in the country in turnovers forced and South Florida has a habit of coughing the ball up at a high rate. They've been playing a ton of "relaxed" defenses as of late (Temple, Cal, Notre Dame, Nova) and haven't been forced to try and protect the ball since the Louisville game. Ohio also has a point guard who can crack the stifling USF defense and find some open shooters. Temple doesn't have a player like that and it cost them in the second half when the shooters had no room to breathe.

Lean Cincy, but I don't really know why. I picked them in my bracket so that will be enough of a reason for me to root for them without betting it

Prop Adds

Kwamain Mitchell Points + Assists Over 16.5 (0.75 units) +105
Creighton-North Carolina Over 13 Three Pointers Made (0.75 units) -115

JFen great write up on USF..just cant stand their digusting offense and the fact they go scoreless for 4 or more min every game..GL tho buddy 

Posting this here as it's my only NIT/CBI/CIT play for today.

Bucknell @ Nevada Over 133 (1 unit)
Couple things here. Bucknell's offense is fairly versatile and runs through 6'11 post player Mike Muscala. Their ball movement is superb and only by applying intense on-ball pressure can you disrupt their rhythm and flow. That is NOT what Nevada brings today as they play a relaxed defense which allows a significant number of three point attempts. They've talked extensively over the last two days about helping on Muscala and not letting him score at will from the low block. I'd assume he gets matched up with Dario Hunt, who will have the same problem the Arizona "bigs" had the other night in that they simply aren't tall enough to bother Muscala's refined post game. He had his way with Jesse Perry and Solomon Hill and I don't think Nevada has a defender who can give him trouble. On the other side, Nevada's offense is equally versatile with an NBA point guard in Deonte Burton, a sharpshooter in Malik Story, and do-it-all forward Olek Czyz. The Bucknell defense is solid across the board and is the best in the country at limiting offensive rebounds, which is a big part of Nevada's offense. It'll be interesting to see who gets the better of the glass at the end of the floor. Bucknell forces the 4th fewest turnovers in the country and relies on solid positioning and helpside rotation. Like Nevada, they allow a high number of threes, which is likely going to be problematic against a Wolfpack team that shoots 37.4% (#48) from distance. Pace won't be great, but two very efficient offenses with little defensive pressure should lead to some points being scored.

3/18 Current Card
Lehigh vs. Xavier -2.5 (2 units)
Bucknell @ Nevada Over 133 (1 unit)
Saint Louis vs. Michigan State 1H Under 57 (1 unit)
(Live) Georgetown -6.5 (1 unit)
(Prop) Kwamain Mitchell Points + Assists Over 16.5 (0.75 units) +105
(Prop) Creighton/North Carolina Over 13 Three-Pointers Made (0.75 units) -115

If Xavier moves to -4.5, I'll buy back a unit on Lehigh to create a small middle opportunity.

Lean:
Ohio +2

Always love hearing your thoughts on the A-10. I like the under as well in that game, but I'm just so bad at capping totals. I have to think St. Louis will slow this game down to stand a chance, and MSU will not mind playing an ugly grinder.

my book has Xavier -3.5 caught in the middle, not sure how to play this?

Thanks for your input as I always value your opinions. Congrats on the under and I like the position you are in Nevada Bucknell. BOL tonite Im sure if you have time I will have another question for you.

good call on the nevada over

We gotta tuff break on Mitchell..he should of had atleast 5 assists not to mention his missed free throws .. GL tonight

Up to you. Not much of a middle as the game would have to land directly on 3. I'd be interested in buying back half of my bet if either of my books went to 4.5, but that does not appear likely.

Yep, always hurts to lose by half a point. One of the reasons I took the play in the first place is that I knew he would be the guy who would look to score if they were trailing towards the end of the game. It happened, but he just didn't do quite enough in the first 34 minutes.