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Posted: #1

kansas-7.5

gl bgk

 
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Posted: #2
You're a great capper BGK, and I look at your posts a lot.  Gonna step out here though on the other side (got KSU +8 1/2 earlier).  I think Kansas is playing some terrible ball right now, and with only a 48 hr turnaround, I don't think them laying 8 or 8 1/2 is at all justified, irrespective of the situation.  KSU is a road-tested, veteran team who has played in many, many big situations.  I like the 'dog tonight, rather large.  BOL.
 
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Posted: #3
Kansas 
 
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Posted: #4
On the other side as I just don't feel KU will cover
 
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Posted: #5
Kansas is definitely a sharp pick tonight. Who wants to back them right now? Especially against an interstate rival, who is currently ranked higher. People are probably salivating getting KSU +7.5. Good luck bgk
 
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Posted: #6

spartucus- line would have been 11 or 12 a month ago

 

 

 
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Posted: #7

old dominion vs delaware under 139.5

gl bgk

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by biggiantkiller:

spartucus- line would have been 11 or 12 a month ago

 

 



I forgot to write that, but I stated it in another thread right after I commented here. Line would without a doubt be double digits even 2 weeks ago.
 
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Posted: #9
But it's not 2 weeks ago.  All seasons, irrespective of sport, ebb and flow unless you're talking about a team in the 3rd or higher standard deviation (either way).  Neither of these teams fit that mold.  I understand the sharp play here, most definitely.  But sharp plays are generally model-based situations, such as this one.  I certainly take that into account (like my TCU +16 play tonight...total sandwich game for OU), but I think the current state of any particular team is the more important of the criteria, assuming it's not a one or two game outlier.
 
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Posted: #10
Kansas is money tonight
 
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Posted: #11

I have no idea on this game. Can the momentum of the Phog be enough to turn around the current state of Jayhawk basketball? Part of me feels like if KU was going to show any sign of a pulse, it would have been in their last game after Self completely shredded them in front of the media following the TCU loss.

Problem is, Frank the Tank hasn't done jack with his teams when they've went into Phog Allen in this intrastate rivalry.

GL BGK

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by vdstrading:

But it's not 2 weeks ago.  All seasons, irrespective of sport, ebb and flow unless you're talking about a team in the 3rd or higher standard deviation (either way).  Neither of these teams fit that mold.  I understand the sharp play here, most definitely.  But sharp plays are generally model-based situations, such as this one.  I certainly take that into account (like my TCU +16 play tonight...total sandwich game for OU), but I think the current state of any particular team is the more important of the criteria, assuming it's not a one or two game outlier.

Teams also have bad games, small bad stretches, etc. You have to stand back and say, "is this team as bad as they're playing?" The answer here is no, Kansas is a great team on a bad run. Kansas is just as good of a team now as they were 2 weeks ago, they simply hit a cold run and played a bad couple of games. Do they bounce back today, I think so but there's no definitive answer. What we can take from this is if they didn't have that bad run, this spread would be 4+ points higher, therefore there is clear value based on these facts alone.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus10:


Teams also have bad games, small bad stretches, etc. You have to stand back and say, "is this team as bad as they're playing?" The answer here is no, Kansas is a great team on a bad run. Kansas is just as good of a team now as they were 2 weeks ago, they simply hit a cold run and played a bad couple of games. Do they bounce back today, I think so but there's no definitive answer. What we can take from this is if they didn't have that bad run, this spread would be 4+ points higher, therefore there is clear value based on these facts alone.

100% man.  Without that (small) losing streak, this is an easy Kansas -12+ spread.

Don't play based on the streak.  Make your plays based on the team(s) at hand and what they're capable of.

So, what do we know... we know that the Jayhawks are solid at home.  We know that they have completely dominated Kansas St. in previous matches (9-1 in last 10 against Kansas St; 8-2 ATS; 5-0 at home; 5-0 ATS at home).

Sure, Kansas St. could pull off the win (and still an upset in my eyes), but this is a great spot for Kansas to get back on track.  There is definitely value in Jayhawks at home -8.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by PINNACLE:

I have no idea on this game. Can the momentum of the Phog be enough to turn around the current state of Jayhawk basketball? Part of me feels like if KU was going to show any sign of a pulse, it would have been in their last game after Self completely shredded them in front of the media following the TCU loss.

Problem is, Frank the Tank hasn't done jack with his teams when they've went into Phog Allen in this intrastate rivalry.

GL BGK


Frank the Tank is in Columbia.  Bruce Weber is the coach now and has done well over the years in very hostile environments in the Big 10.
 
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Posted: #15
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus10:


Teams also have bad games, small bad stretches, etc. You have to stand back and say, "is this team as bad as they're playing?" The answer here is no, Kansas is a great team on a bad run. Kansas is just as good of a team now as they were 2 weeks ago, they simply hit a cold run and played a bad couple of games. Do they bounce back today, I think so but there's no definitive answer. What we can take from this is if they didn't have that bad run, this spread would be 4+ points higher, therefore there is clear value based on these facts alone.

Sure, but they're not 22-1.  They're 19-4.  If they were 22-1, I wouldn't be taking KSU +8 1/2.  I agree with your assessment re: perceived value from 2 weeks ago.  But, there is also something to be said for "the trend is your friend."  1 game is an outlier, 2 games raises and eyebrow, and 3 games starts a trend.  I'm a derivatives trader, and I put a lot of stock in that statement.  Someone said above that if Kansas were to answer the bell, it would have been after Self publicly undressed them after the TCU loss.  Hence, why the KU-OU line moved 2 full points in Kansas's favor on Saturday.  But, Kansas still showed the same sloppy tendencies, lack of emotion, and poor execution that has recently plagued them.  In short, they didn't answer vs. a team that is offensively challenged, to put it nicely.  Thus, I'll take the 8 1/2 tonight.  Might be wrong, but we'll see around 11 EST.  Good luck to all.
 
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Posted: #17

vdstrading --

Wow. I can't believe I totally for got about that. Adds a completely different dynamic to the matchup. I may have to reconsider.

Thanks

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by PINNACLE:

vdstrading --

Wow. I can't believe I totally for got about that. Adds a completely different dynamic to the matchup. I may have to reconsider.

Thanks


No problem.  Good luck whichever way you go tonight.  
 
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Posted: #19
you want to buy low and sell high. been making some change on k-state since there sub-par start to the season. liked this team when know one did earlier the year. its not who you play but when you play themevery game or situation is unique in its own way.the ability to be open-minded and see multiple angles on games is imperative in sportsbetting. gl bgk
 
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Posted: #20

william mary+1

oklahoma-15

gl bgk

 
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Posted: #21
Good Luck tonight.....
 
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Posted: #22

3 leans  missed early line on these games

alcorn st+6   opened at 9

wofford+3.5

idaho st-16.5 opened at 18.5

small edges on these games gl bgk

 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by mrMarcus:


100% man.  Without that (small) losing streak, this is an easy Kansas -12+ spread.

Don't play based on the streak.  Make your plays based on the team(s) at hand and what they're capable of.

So, what do we know... we know that the Jayhawks are solid at home.  We know that they have completely dominated Kansas St. in previous matches (9-1 in last 10 against Kansas St; 8-2 ATS; 5-0 at home; 5-0 ATS at home).

Sure, Kansas St. could pull off the win (and still an upset in my eyes), but this is a great spot for Kansas to get back on track.  There is definitely value in Jayhawks at home -8.



I love the discussion here and people are entitled to their opinions on the game but just to be clear I want to get this straight.....

Given that Kansas did actually win their last 3 games:

You think the #10 ranked team in the country with the best conference record in the big 12 (8-2)......, with both losses by a combined 10 points.......looking to get avenge a home loss to Kansas would be catching 12.5 points just because of recent dominance and given the assumption Kansas won their last 3 games and is 22-1?

I wish you guys would be my bookie with those beliefs. If thats the case you believe that Oklahoma is just as good as Kstate because thats exactly how many points Oklahoma was catching at Kansas.

With that said the spread is right where it should be....In fact the line opened INFLATED at 8 by a point

If you are on Kansas you are basically saying that home court and history is gonna be enough to rid this team of its chemistry woes and make them dominate Kstate. I cant be so sure Kansas is even the better team right now and highly doubt they magically fix their issues against the one of the best teams in the country and win by DD

BOL though


 
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Posted: #24

if kansas was 22-1 the line would be 12 or so. kansas st or no betif k-state had struggled this last month the line might be 14 or 15. obvious bet on k-state but public would be all over kansas thinking the blowout. your value is a few points in sportsbetting. k-state has know value in this situation gl bgk

 
 
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Posted: #25
I hear ya BGK....good possibility that my read on this game is off. BOL on all other wagers
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