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#1
Two winning days in a row, had to cut things short in the afternoon yesterday because I wasn't around and the same might happen today but I have a good idea of what I like.
Big Ten Tournament - Quarter-Finals
Northwestern Wildcats +13
It's never ideal to go against Ohio State and their 15-13 ATS mark on the season because not many teams finish the season with winning spread records but the Buckeyes are playing their first game of the tournament in the 12:00pm spot and like we have seen all week with teams that had a bye or a double bye, the tops seeds that have been sitting all week mostly come out flat when the lights come in an early game like this. Look no further than Kansas against Oklahoma State yesterday. These large spreads are a bit ridiculous in my eyes so I will continue to back the underdogs. Also keep in mind that Ohio State has a lot of freshmen and although it has not showed all year long in terms of composure and in terms of the way they have played and laid a beat down on teams, this is a neutral court, these are uncharted waters for some of these guys like Sullinger, Kraft and Thomas so it will be interesting to see. What I do know is that Northwestern looked damn good against Minnesota in the first round of the tournament yesterday and they have won 4 of their last 6 games. What makes them a dangerous team is desperation because they have never made the NCAA's and their only way in is winning this tournament.
Ohio State has impressed me all year and again I have been burned going against them quite a few times. They are averaging a whopping 81.8 points per game in their last five games and shooting an incredible 52.8% from the field in those games (something I highly doubt they can sustain into this tournament on a neutral court after sitting all week). Northwestern is not on the same planet as the Buckeyes when it comes to offense and ability to score points but they have two characteristics of an underdog and that is free throw shooting ability (some 80%+ their last five games and the ability to shoot the three ball). It's also worth noting that Ohio State has allowed their last five opponents to shoot 46.3% from the field and those opponents have made 37.4% of their three point shots in those games. That to me is a concern because again the Wildcats love shooting the three ball and they gave the Buckeyes all they could handle the first time they played each other.
The line for this game looked a bit sketchy when I first saw for the simple fact that Northwestern almost beat Ohio State in their only meeting of the season and they seem to match up well with them and again it should be noted that Northwestern did win 6 games away from home this season and Minnesota's size was not a problem at all yesterday. These two teams met in this tournament last year and Ohio State ended up winning by five points and although it's just a gut feeling, I don't see them coming out and being as hot as they have been shooting the ball with the long layoff and the pressures of an early game. Northwestern is a well coached team that plays well on neutral courts (4-0-1 ATS in their last five) and although Ohio State has been on fire against Conference opponents and it has been a bad idea to go against them in Big Ten play all year, Northwestern is the one team that has bothered them in the past (5-2 ATS against the Buckeyes the last seven meetings) and they looked good enough for me yesterday to back them today and keep this in single digits with their perimeter shooting.
Northwestern plus the points.
Big Ten Tournament - Quarter-Finals
Northwestern Wildcats +13
It's never ideal to go against Ohio State and their 15-13 ATS mark on the season because not many teams finish the season with winning spread records but the Buckeyes are playing their first game of the tournament in the 12:00pm spot and like we have seen all week with teams that had a bye or a double bye, the tops seeds that have been sitting all week mostly come out flat when the lights come in an early game like this. Look no further than Kansas against Oklahoma State yesterday. These large spreads are a bit ridiculous in my eyes so I will continue to back the underdogs. Also keep in mind that Ohio State has a lot of freshmen and although it has not showed all year long in terms of composure and in terms of the way they have played and laid a beat down on teams, this is a neutral court, these are uncharted waters for some of these guys like Sullinger, Kraft and Thomas so it will be interesting to see. What I do know is that Northwestern looked damn good against Minnesota in the first round of the tournament yesterday and they have won 4 of their last 6 games. What makes them a dangerous team is desperation because they have never made the NCAA's and their only way in is winning this tournament.
Ohio State has impressed me all year and again I have been burned going against them quite a few times. They are averaging a whopping 81.8 points per game in their last five games and shooting an incredible 52.8% from the field in those games (something I highly doubt they can sustain into this tournament on a neutral court after sitting all week). Northwestern is not on the same planet as the Buckeyes when it comes to offense and ability to score points but they have two characteristics of an underdog and that is free throw shooting ability (some 80%+ their last five games and the ability to shoot the three ball). It's also worth noting that Ohio State has allowed their last five opponents to shoot 46.3% from the field and those opponents have made 37.4% of their three point shots in those games. That to me is a concern because again the Wildcats love shooting the three ball and they gave the Buckeyes all they could handle the first time they played each other.
The line for this game looked a bit sketchy when I first saw for the simple fact that Northwestern almost beat Ohio State in their only meeting of the season and they seem to match up well with them and again it should be noted that Northwestern did win 6 games away from home this season and Minnesota's size was not a problem at all yesterday. These two teams met in this tournament last year and Ohio State ended up winning by five points and although it's just a gut feeling, I don't see them coming out and being as hot as they have been shooting the ball with the long layoff and the pressures of an early game. Northwestern is a well coached team that plays well on neutral courts (4-0-1 ATS in their last five) and although Ohio State has been on fire against Conference opponents and it has been a bad idea to go against them in Big Ten play all year, Northwestern is the one team that has bothered them in the past (5-2 ATS against the Buckeyes the last seven meetings) and they looked good enough for me yesterday to back them today and keep this in single digits with their perimeter shooting.
Northwestern plus the points.
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