SI Group's CBB Friday "12-5 ATS Last Two Days, More Winners today" ***ANALYSIS INSIDE***

Over the course of the last five games, Boston College is averaging 10.6 more points per game than Clemson, they are shooting the ball almost 10 percentage points better than Clemson and they are finally starting to come around and play like a desperate team. Clemson have been winning games but how in the world can someone feel comfortable betting on the Tigers as a 3.5 point favorite knowing they have made only 39.7% of their shots from the field their last five games? I get it, Boston College is not the most effective defensive team in the Conference but they neutralize perimeter shooting (it’s not like Clemson have any three point shooting threats) and they actually do a very good job on the defensive boards as their last five opponents have brought down only 26.0 rebounds per game, which is well below the NCAA average. Seeing how Clemson is shooting so poorly from the field and Boston College protect their basket so well, I don’t see how Clemson will recover from all the one and done opportunities in this game. I can’t back them with the way they are playing. 

These two teams met twice already this season and the home team won both times by at least six points but the difference is that Boston College exceeded expectations both times and are 2-0 ATS in both meetings. Now we move to a neutral court and how can you now love the team with the better spread record and the team that won 10 ACC Conference game this season (Clemson only won 7) or the team that won 7 games away from home (Clemson won only 5). This line is an absolute joke, what a mistake by the boys in the strip. Boston College is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Clemson is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games played on a neutral court and i have a hard time understanding this line still.

Boston College plus the points.

One of two things is going to happen in this game. Illinois is either going to win by 20+ points or Michigan will take an early lead in this game, hold that lead for the most part and then let Illinois make a comeback of sorts and bring this baby down to the buzzer. Either way I think Michigan matches up well enough in this one to have a shot and they are playing some desperate basketball right now. Both teams have won five games away from home this season and Illinois is the only team to actually win on a neutral court but the Wolverines have a very impressive 18-8 ATS record on the season and they have just as many Big Ten Conference wins as the Fighting Illini. Illinois have been as inconsistent as it gets the last three weeks going 5-5 SU in those games and four of those losses were on the road (lost at Purdue, at Ohio State, at Michigan State and at Northwestern) with their only road win coming at a pathetic Minnesota team. Michigan on the other hand have won seven of their last 10 games, they beat Minnesota, Iowa and Penn State on the road and have been one of the better Big Ten teams down the stretch of the regular season. I’m not missing out on this. 

When it comes to scoring points, Illinois has a big advantage and when it comes to size, I think the Fighting Illini can dominate this game having shot 48.6% from the field in their last five games. Michigan on the other hand score only 63.8 points per game their last five games and shoot 44.0% from the field but the Wolverines do such a good job slowing down the pace of a game to the point where opponents like Illinois who are used to control tempo and producing offensive rhythm, are left to change game plans to adapt to this defense. The Wolverines have allowed only 61.0 points per game in their last five games and their opponents have shot only 40.1% from the field which is why they have won 7 of their last 10 games. One of the problems Michigan has it that they allow a ton of rebounds and second chance points but Illinois bring down only 30.8 rebounds per game.  Michigan’s last five opponents have made only 27.5% of their three point shots and for a team that relies so heavily on their ability to make perimeter shots, I would say Illinois struggles to find their offensive identity in this game.  

Nobody really knows anything about the Patriot League or the teams that play in this Conference but for those who don’t know, Bucknell is the cream of the crop and Lafayette is a team with a losing record on the season but as the #6 seed, Lafayette is the worst ranked seed to ever reach the Championship Game in this Conference Tournament and they are not here to get their asses handed to them by the home team. Make no mistake about it, there is a huge difference between a team (Lafayette) who are 13-18 SU on the season and a team (Bucknell) who are 24-8 on the season but in the two games Lafayette have been lined (both in this tournament) this season, they are 2-0 ATS. They had to beat Holy Cross and American University on the road in the first two rounds and won both games straight up as an underdog. I know they only have 13 wins on the year but 5 of those 13 wins have been in the last 10 games they have played and two of their losses were in overtime. Bucknell  beat Lehigh by only two points in their Semi-Final matchup and I don’t know that they take Lafayette seriously. 

I want to back Bucknell because they are so good at home but Lafayette is playing some damn good basketball right now and they are scoring 75.0 points per game their last five games and shooting 44.4% from the field in those games. Bucknell is averaging 74.2 points per game and shooting 44.8% from the field in those games so we’re pretty even there. Both teams love perimeter shooting and both teams can hit three point shots by the bucket but at the same time both teams have tremendous perimeter defense and I don’t think three point shooting will be too much of factor. You can praise Bucknell all you want for holding opponents to 60.6 points per game and 36.1% shooting from the field in their last five games but the reason Lafayette is in this Championship game in the first place is because they too have been shutting opponents down defensively allowing 42.3% shooting from the field in their last five games. Both teams have size, both teams have perimeter shooting and both teams can play defense which means we are in for one heck of a Championship Game and I think the points are too much.