SJU/Penn detailed write-up

Alright...interesting situaiton here. Hawks had a HUGE upset win saturday at home against Dayton. Hagan Arena was completely sold out and we somehow managed to beat Dayton, 60-59. Honestly, I don't think this game against Penn can come at a worse time. Penn is pretty damn awful this year, but keep in mind that this is a rivalry game, and weird things tend to happen at the Palestra. Some things to bear in mind:

Forget the fact that St. Joe's is on "the road." We get half of the tickets (it was included in my season tix package) and the majority of the 7000+ people there will be rooting for St. Joe's. Penn has absolutely no student section, while we will bring upwards of 1000 kids. It's only a 15 minute drive from our campus. SJU played all of its home games at the Palestra last year, and took Nova to the wire there earlier this year. This is a de facto home game.

By far the biggest weakness for SJU is rebounding. We are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation. Against Dayton, however, it wasn't much of an issue and the bigs did a great job keeping Wright/Searcy/Huelsman etc. off the glass. Penn's only inside player is Jack Eggleston, who's certainly no slouch. I don't really see the Quakers being able to dominate on the glass, which should help the SJU cause. However, the strength of this SJU team is the backcourt. Garrett Williamson, a 6'5 guard, runs the offense and is arguably the best defender in the A-10. He had 15 points against Dayton and made the game-saving block with 3 seconds left to preserve the win. Our other guards, Darrin Govens (SR), Tay Jones (FR), Justin Crosgile (FR) and Chris Prescott (SO) are all streaky 3-shooters who can get hot at any time. Defensively, SJU has struggled at times this year, but I'm not sure Penn has the horses to exploit the weaknesses, particularly from behind the arc. In the event the cover comes down to free throws, SJU shoots 73% from the line. Williamson, Govens, and PF Idris Hilliard are all 75% or better. Hilliard could have a big night, and is probably our most complete player despite being only 6'7.

Bottom line, if you can get the spread at somewhere around 7, take it. If it starts creeping up to 8.5 or 9, be careful. This is a mismatch on paper, but SJU has been known to play down to inferior competition. Penn will come ready to play, much like it did against Temple. Ignore the "road" label on SJU. I also like the under 144, as these games are often physical slugfests and Penn will try and stall the pace as much as possible. 

If you have any questions about SJU I'll do my best to answer them.  

Normally I'd be real careful with movement like that, but unless Vegas knows more about this team than I do it shouldn't be a big deal. I just talked to Chris Prescott who is one of the first guys off the bench and he said they're definitely not looking past Penn. Strange as it sounds I like the Hawks a lot more after this move. My initial feeling was a 8-10 point win, and I still feel that way

Hawks will win this by 9 or so.  Penn's terrible, and no more "at home" than SJU will be. 

JFEN, can you explain to me why SJU spent a fortune to turn its high school gym into a somwhat nicer, and only nominally larger, high school gym?  They should have moved back to the Palestra for good (LaSalle should too) and only playewd up on Hawk Hill against the Albrights and Riders of the world.  

Quote Originally Posted by IvanJoyderpus:

im looking at this game just cannot figure out wht justifies this line move ???? whats the deal

I agree.  Line movement that I don't understand always scares me.  Here, I can find no reason to think UP plays this close.  Maybe it's folks thinking that SJU is off of a game in which they over-achieved on national (sort of) television.  Maybe.  I don't think the Hawks are very good, but I know how bad Penn is.  I also like this to land 15 point under the posted total.  Quakers will probably win 92-90.