7-3 yesterday, thanks to getting the lines early. Had four bets that won by a combined 2.5 points. That sounds lucky, but the OSU, Auburn, and Mississippi State games would have been horrible, horrible mooses if they didn't cover. And UVA -1.5 shouldn't have just covered by the hook, either. Whatever, I'll take it.
Booked for Wednesday:
George Mason -2.5 ODU +3.5 Central Florida -1.5 Southern Miss -1.5
Wednesday is an amazing day for ML parlays. Might have 3 coming in the morning. So many relatively short lines for home teams, which is always great. Potential teams: App State, Bonnies, St. Joe's, Tennessee, Akron, Delaware, Drake, Wichita State, Michigan State, Kansas, Long Beach St.
Thoughts to come. Good luck everyone!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
271-222-11
7-3 yesterday, thanks to getting the lines early. Had four bets that won by a combined 2.5 points. That sounds lucky, but the OSU, Auburn, and Mississippi State games would have been horrible, horrible mooses if they didn't cover. And UVA -1.5 shouldn't have just covered by the hook, either. Whatever, I'll take it.
Booked for Wednesday:
George Mason -2.5 ODU +3.5 Central Florida -1.5 Southern Miss -1.5
Wednesday is an amazing day for ML parlays. Might have 3 coming in the morning. So many relatively short lines for home teams, which is always great. Potential teams: App State, Bonnies, St. Joe's, Tennessee, Akron, Delaware, Drake, Wichita State, Michigan State, Kansas, Long Beach St.
i just need one sloop....ive made up my mind..im going to parlay 1000 on san diego state to whatever other team u tell me...and please tell me what u think of san diego state tomorrow
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i just need one sloop....ive made up my mind..im going to parlay 1000 on san diego state to whatever other team u tell me...and please tell me what u think of san diego state tomorrow
Southern Miss (22-5, 9-3 C-USA) is coming off it's worst loss of the season (@Houston), and heads to Texas tomorrow to face a UTEP team that has been surprisingly tough and gritty this year, despite being the youngest team in the conference. I'm really not surprised at all that Southern Miss lost that game the other day; Houston had been nails at home this year, and that was the biggest home game for them of the entire year. Houston was 11-5 at home heading into that matchup, and 3 of those losses were by 2 or less points. I'd posted it as a lean, but the blowout loss to Memphis at home was very troubling. Was kicking myself all of Saturday for not taking that bet.
Anyway, hindsight is 20/20. The reality is, Southern Miss only has 5 losses this year, and they come @ #70 Denver (7 points), #57 Murray State (9 points, neutral court, but it went to overtime), @ #19 Memphis (2 points), @#131 UAB (10 points), @ #210 Houston (2 points).
Denver's extremely tough at home this year (13-2), and teams have to deal with elevation issues. Plus, that was lightyears ago. Murray State is obviously dangerous (also a game played months ago), as is Memphis at home. UAB was a revenge game. And Houston was probably just them getting lazy and not taking the matchup seriously enough. All VERY rational losses.
So now they head on the road to UTEP. Southern Miss hasn't lost back-to-back games all season. Very important that they're playing UTEP in this spot: UTEP just earned their first road victory of the entire season on Saturday. Even more shocking, that was a 2-point win at MEMPHIS. This is the youngest team in the conference, and I'm fully expecting a letdown against an angry Southern Miss team that's coming off their worst loss of the season, and already feels that they get zero respect.
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Southern Miss (22-5, 9-3 C-USA) is coming off it's worst loss of the season (@Houston), and heads to Texas tomorrow to face a UTEP team that has been surprisingly tough and gritty this year, despite being the youngest team in the conference. I'm really not surprised at all that Southern Miss lost that game the other day; Houston had been nails at home this year, and that was the biggest home game for them of the entire year. Houston was 11-5 at home heading into that matchup, and 3 of those losses were by 2 or less points. I'd posted it as a lean, but the blowout loss to Memphis at home was very troubling. Was kicking myself all of Saturday for not taking that bet.
Anyway, hindsight is 20/20. The reality is, Southern Miss only has 5 losses this year, and they come @ #70 Denver (7 points), #57 Murray State (9 points, neutral court, but it went to overtime), @ #19 Memphis (2 points), @#131 UAB (10 points), @ #210 Houston (2 points).
Denver's extremely tough at home this year (13-2), and teams have to deal with elevation issues. Plus, that was lightyears ago. Murray State is obviously dangerous (also a game played months ago), as is Memphis at home. UAB was a revenge game. And Houston was probably just them getting lazy and not taking the matchup seriously enough. All VERY rational losses.
So now they head on the road to UTEP. Southern Miss hasn't lost back-to-back games all season. Very important that they're playing UTEP in this spot: UTEP just earned their first road victory of the entire season on Saturday. Even more shocking, that was a 2-point win at MEMPHIS. This is the youngest team in the conference, and I'm fully expecting a letdown against an angry Southern Miss team that's coming off their worst loss of the season, and already feels that they get zero respect.
i just need one sloop....ive made up my mind..im going to parlay 1000 on san diego state to whatever other team u tell me...and please tell me what u think of san diego state tomorrow
Moslo,
I'm sorry man; I wish I could help you out...really do...but that's a TON of pressure. I'd feel really horrible knowing that I'd been responsible for losing you that much money. Hope you understand. This sport is just so unpredictable, and I've started to flat bet. Even when you feel great about something, you still never know. My advice is, don't chase, don't make huge bets, don't try to get it all back in one day; just split your bankroll up and take it slow.
But If I have the time tomorrow, I'd be happy to let you know what I think of any game if you want me to take a look.
I will say this: I do not like the San Diego State pick. I always thought they were a little overrated, and I'm not surprised by their performances as of late. They've lost 4 of their last 6, and while UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado State were all excusable, the loss @ Air Force, who just fired their coach less than 10 days ago, who had lost 7 of 8 games coming into that one, is extremely troubling. Plus, they're facing a Wyoming team that still thinks they're on the bubble, and is looking for revenge.
Very difficult to tell the true identity of Wyoming. They're very much like Georgia State. They started out hot by playing the 10th easiest non-conference schedule, then started tanking a bit....but...they still might be dangerous? It's so hard to tell. I wasn't very impressed when I watched them play UNLV, though. (UNLV is a definite road fade for me from here on out.) But still, I still didn't know....maybe Wyoming was playing great defense in that game. Maybe they are better than I think. But also a great chance that Wyoming is as bad as I think. And great chance SDSU is better than I think they are. But there's just too many variables, and this is a rematch game. I'd avoid, but that's just my opinion.
Good luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by moslo35:
i just need one sloop....ive made up my mind..im going to parlay 1000 on san diego state to whatever other team u tell me...and please tell me what u think of san diego state tomorrow
Moslo,
I'm sorry man; I wish I could help you out...really do...but that's a TON of pressure. I'd feel really horrible knowing that I'd been responsible for losing you that much money. Hope you understand. This sport is just so unpredictable, and I've started to flat bet. Even when you feel great about something, you still never know. My advice is, don't chase, don't make huge bets, don't try to get it all back in one day; just split your bankroll up and take it slow.
But If I have the time tomorrow, I'd be happy to let you know what I think of any game if you want me to take a look.
I will say this: I do not like the San Diego State pick. I always thought they were a little overrated, and I'm not surprised by their performances as of late. They've lost 4 of their last 6, and while UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado State were all excusable, the loss @ Air Force, who just fired their coach less than 10 days ago, who had lost 7 of 8 games coming into that one, is extremely troubling. Plus, they're facing a Wyoming team that still thinks they're on the bubble, and is looking for revenge.
Very difficult to tell the true identity of Wyoming. They're very much like Georgia State. They started out hot by playing the 10th easiest non-conference schedule, then started tanking a bit....but...they still might be dangerous? It's so hard to tell. I wasn't very impressed when I watched them play UNLV, though. (UNLV is a definite road fade for me from here on out.) But still, I still didn't know....maybe Wyoming was playing great defense in that game. Maybe they are better than I think. But also a great chance that Wyoming is as bad as I think. And great chance SDSU is better than I think they are. But there's just too many variables, and this is a rematch game. I'd avoid, but that's just my opinion.
Central Florida is a game back in the C-USA standings right now, and faces Kazemi (aka...the drainin' iranian!) and the Owls in Houston on Wednesday night. UCF has struggled on the road this year, going just 3-5....but 4 of those 5 losses were decided by 5 or less points.
UCF has dropped 7 games this year: #21 FSU, #30 Harvard, #185 Louisiana Lafayette, #68 Marshall, #78 Tulsa, and #53 Southern Miss (2x). Other than the 1 point loss at ULL, all of those losses are against extremely good teams, and most of them were away. The away games were against teams with a combined 58-11 record at home; all very good teams at home. Rice has already been beaten 5 times at home this year.
Rice has beaten just 4 teams in the top 200 this entire year. Not very impressive for a team that's in the C-USA. And none of them are better than #111 Texas A&M. Beating UCF would easily become their biggest win of the season.
UCF matches up extremely well with Rice. Kazemi does pretty much everything for their team; he's big inside, he shoots from wherever, and he grabs a ton of rebounds. But Rice has gotten slammed by big, physical teams (i.e. Tulsa, UAB, Memphis) that play great defense, and that's UCF in a shell. They're #45 in the country at rebound rate, and #55 in effective height. I think they'll be able to contain Kazemi, and that's the key to winning this game. I'll make the square play at -1.5.
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Central Florida is a game back in the C-USA standings right now, and faces Kazemi (aka...the drainin' iranian!) and the Owls in Houston on Wednesday night. UCF has struggled on the road this year, going just 3-5....but 4 of those 5 losses were decided by 5 or less points.
UCF has dropped 7 games this year: #21 FSU, #30 Harvard, #185 Louisiana Lafayette, #68 Marshall, #78 Tulsa, and #53 Southern Miss (2x). Other than the 1 point loss at ULL, all of those losses are against extremely good teams, and most of them were away. The away games were against teams with a combined 58-11 record at home; all very good teams at home. Rice has already been beaten 5 times at home this year.
Rice has beaten just 4 teams in the top 200 this entire year. Not very impressive for a team that's in the C-USA. And none of them are better than #111 Texas A&M. Beating UCF would easily become their biggest win of the season.
UCF matches up extremely well with Rice. Kazemi does pretty much everything for their team; he's big inside, he shoots from wherever, and he grabs a ton of rebounds. But Rice has gotten slammed by big, physical teams (i.e. Tulsa, UAB, Memphis) that play great defense, and that's UCF in a shell. They're #45 in the country at rebound rate, and #55 in effective height. I think they'll be able to contain Kazemi, and that's the key to winning this game. I'll make the square play at -1.5.
bro im not chasing ..im up big thats why i want to throw down that parlay...u know ur shit about these schools so just give me the best one..i got faith in u
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bro im not chasing ..im up big thats why i want to throw down that parlay...u know ur shit about these schools so just give me the best one..i got faith in u
Old Dominion, much like the other top CAA teams, seemingly found its stride once conference play began, despite a disappointing non-conference schedule. They've won 12 of the last 15, and those losses were @ VCU (12-1 at home), @ George Mason (15-1 at home), and vs. VCU again; cream of the crop of the CAA. This is a team that has lost to most of its good competition, but is still hanging tough, and is coming off a very impressive outing @ Missouri State.
I faded Georgia State when they played Drexel in the 2nd conference game of the season back on January 2nd. My rationale was that they played the #330 non-conference schedule, and they had not beaten a top-200 team heading into that game. I got burned, and Georgia State won.
Two days later, Georgia State beat VCU on their home court. That handed VCU their only loss at home this year out of 13 games. Both were very big wins, and I was ready to believe in Ron Hunter's new team.
However, I'm once again in extreme doubt of this team's ability. They still lack quality wins, and they're horrible on the offensive end of the basketball, which has resulted in them losing almost half of their games since that VCU contest. They dropped a bad one to Northeastern, and lost to Delaware twice. Delaware's tough at home, but still....eh. And the 2nd time around, they only beat Northeastern by 2. They only beat JMU by 3. GMU, Drexel, and VCU losses all excusable though.
Just seeing a lot of fluff out of this team. They've still only beaten 4 top-200 teams on the year, and 2 of those were the aforementioned Drexel and VCU, which was almost 2 months ago. The others were #192 Northeastern, and #167 UTSA. UTSA was a great win, but still, it was a bracketbuster game at home for an unfamiliar opponent. Eh. ODU looked great the other day, and their defense is certain to give GA St. trouble. I'll take the 3.5, but I don't know if I'll need them.
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Old Dominion, much like the other top CAA teams, seemingly found its stride once conference play began, despite a disappointing non-conference schedule. They've won 12 of the last 15, and those losses were @ VCU (12-1 at home), @ George Mason (15-1 at home), and vs. VCU again; cream of the crop of the CAA. This is a team that has lost to most of its good competition, but is still hanging tough, and is coming off a very impressive outing @ Missouri State.
I faded Georgia State when they played Drexel in the 2nd conference game of the season back on January 2nd. My rationale was that they played the #330 non-conference schedule, and they had not beaten a top-200 team heading into that game. I got burned, and Georgia State won.
Two days later, Georgia State beat VCU on their home court. That handed VCU their only loss at home this year out of 13 games. Both were very big wins, and I was ready to believe in Ron Hunter's new team.
However, I'm once again in extreme doubt of this team's ability. They still lack quality wins, and they're horrible on the offensive end of the basketball, which has resulted in them losing almost half of their games since that VCU contest. They dropped a bad one to Northeastern, and lost to Delaware twice. Delaware's tough at home, but still....eh. And the 2nd time around, they only beat Northeastern by 2. They only beat JMU by 3. GMU, Drexel, and VCU losses all excusable though.
Just seeing a lot of fluff out of this team. They've still only beaten 4 top-200 teams on the year, and 2 of those were the aforementioned Drexel and VCU, which was almost 2 months ago. The others were #192 Northeastern, and #167 UTSA. UTSA was a great win, but still, it was a bracketbuster game at home for an unfamiliar opponent. Eh. ODU looked great the other day, and their defense is certain to give GA St. trouble. I'll take the 3.5, but I don't know if I'll need them.
My guess is that George Mason still thinks they're capable of getting an at-large bid. And they should, because they deserve it. But the reality of the situation is that RPI is the most important stat, and the CAA's best were crippled this year by dropping their important non-conference games. In my opinion, it's not fair to hold it against these teams (less Drexel, who has a ton of upperclassmen), since the CAA is so incredibly young this year, and it's natural to expect them to get off on the wrong foot.
Anyway, Mason has won 21 of their last 25 games, is tied for first at 14-2 in conference, and within their last 25 games, their losses are @ #20 UVA, vs #128 Duqusne, @#48 Drexel, and @#147 Delaware.
The home-court record of the away-game teams is 35-4, and none of those losses were to top-100 teams.
I'm going to pardon Mason for those losses, because they were obviously in extremely tough environments. And now they head to Northeastern, who is only 6-5 at home this year. (That's more losses than the other three teams combined.)
So yeah....they head to Northeastern, who's lost 5 of their last 6 (one win comes to Towson, lol) and 7 of their last 10. Northeastern only has three wins to top-150 teams this year: #82 Georgia State (overrated), #147 Delaware, and #120 Vermont (lost to Binghamton tonight, lol).
I'm obviously not intimidated. If I do lose this bet, I strongly believe it will be by the short spread, and see no way of them losing straight up. Although Mason has VCU to look ahead to, they absolutely, positively cannot afford to drop this game for their 2nd worst loss of the season if they want any shot of an at-large bid. And, they're tied for first place at 14-2 right now with Drexel at the top of the conference. Drexel is going to annihilate JMU tomorrow, but there's still a chance of them losing at ODU on Saturday. Mason might lose to VCU, but losing to Northeastern is definitely not an option if they want the CAA crown.
Pearson is the conference player of the year (heard it here first), and this team has been quoted by their coach that they "prefer playing on the road" because they dont have the feeling of duty owed to their fans or some BS. Find it hard to believe they don't win + cover, but would love to hear some thoughts from the other side.
GL.
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My guess is that George Mason still thinks they're capable of getting an at-large bid. And they should, because they deserve it. But the reality of the situation is that RPI is the most important stat, and the CAA's best were crippled this year by dropping their important non-conference games. In my opinion, it's not fair to hold it against these teams (less Drexel, who has a ton of upperclassmen), since the CAA is so incredibly young this year, and it's natural to expect them to get off on the wrong foot.
Anyway, Mason has won 21 of their last 25 games, is tied for first at 14-2 in conference, and within their last 25 games, their losses are @ #20 UVA, vs #128 Duqusne, @#48 Drexel, and @#147 Delaware.
The home-court record of the away-game teams is 35-4, and none of those losses were to top-100 teams.
I'm going to pardon Mason for those losses, because they were obviously in extremely tough environments. And now they head to Northeastern, who is only 6-5 at home this year. (That's more losses than the other three teams combined.)
So yeah....they head to Northeastern, who's lost 5 of their last 6 (one win comes to Towson, lol) and 7 of their last 10. Northeastern only has three wins to top-150 teams this year: #82 Georgia State (overrated), #147 Delaware, and #120 Vermont (lost to Binghamton tonight, lol).
I'm obviously not intimidated. If I do lose this bet, I strongly believe it will be by the short spread, and see no way of them losing straight up. Although Mason has VCU to look ahead to, they absolutely, positively cannot afford to drop this game for their 2nd worst loss of the season if they want any shot of an at-large bid. And, they're tied for first place at 14-2 right now with Drexel at the top of the conference. Drexel is going to annihilate JMU tomorrow, but there's still a chance of them losing at ODU on Saturday. Mason might lose to VCU, but losing to Northeastern is definitely not an option if they want the CAA crown.
Pearson is the conference player of the year (heard it here first), and this team has been quoted by their coach that they "prefer playing on the road" because they dont have the feeling of duty owed to their fans or some BS. Find it hard to believe they don't win + cover, but would love to hear some thoughts from the other side.
bro im not chasing ..im up big thats why i want to throw down that parlay...u know ur shit about these schools so just give me the best one..i got faith in u
send me a PM
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Quote Originally Posted by moslo35:
bro im not chasing ..im up big thats why i want to throw down that parlay...u know ur shit about these schools so just give me the best one..i got faith in u
So glad to see Stuckey on these as well. I was listening to oddsmaker (oddswriter, bookie, whatever you call it) Todd Furhman on the ESPNs Behind the Bets podcast yesterday, and he admitted that there's a very good chance we get value betting against Michigan State right now due to the public's short-term memory of how good this team is. He said it's extremely rare that we see a power-conference team like Michigan State go 8-3 against the number in their past 11 outings, and he indirectly said that it's more likely to dissipate to .500 and we're going to see inflated lines on the Spartans from here on out. I think this is a prime example. He said this would be true for the Knicks as well b/c of the Jeremy Lin craze right now, and said there's great value in betting against the Knicks w/ Melo's return, as they need to learn how to share the load, and the public would be going bonkers over the Knicks. So true, as the Nets covered and won yesterday.
Obviously that's one example and a small sample size, but I think both of these games are games that the public will have short-term memory on and hop all over MSU and Wichita. This is the same reason I took Colorado State tonight; New Mexico basically came out of thin air for those who are unfamiliar with CBB after their two huge wins last week, and I think the bracketbuster game w/ Davidson was huge publicity for the Shockers, and we're going to see everyone on them tomorrow. This also makes the motivation factor higher for Illinois State and MInnesota, who will want even more badly to beat these big teams on their home courts.
We saw Michigan State get a relatively easy cover the other day at Purdue, but Vegas made a poor line on that game b/c of the uncertainty of the Boilermakers w/out 2 star players. There's no unknown variables like that in their game on Wednesday, and I think we see a cover by a good illinois state team that is nails at home.
Michigan State will not continue to cover at this high rate, and neither will any other huge power-conference team. I think this is the one that they drop.
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illinois state +6 minnesota +6
So glad to see Stuckey on these as well. I was listening to oddsmaker (oddswriter, bookie, whatever you call it) Todd Furhman on the ESPNs Behind the Bets podcast yesterday, and he admitted that there's a very good chance we get value betting against Michigan State right now due to the public's short-term memory of how good this team is. He said it's extremely rare that we see a power-conference team like Michigan State go 8-3 against the number in their past 11 outings, and he indirectly said that it's more likely to dissipate to .500 and we're going to see inflated lines on the Spartans from here on out. I think this is a prime example. He said this would be true for the Knicks as well b/c of the Jeremy Lin craze right now, and said there's great value in betting against the Knicks w/ Melo's return, as they need to learn how to share the load, and the public would be going bonkers over the Knicks. So true, as the Nets covered and won yesterday.
Obviously that's one example and a small sample size, but I think both of these games are games that the public will have short-term memory on and hop all over MSU and Wichita. This is the same reason I took Colorado State tonight; New Mexico basically came out of thin air for those who are unfamiliar with CBB after their two huge wins last week, and I think the bracketbuster game w/ Davidson was huge publicity for the Shockers, and we're going to see everyone on them tomorrow. This also makes the motivation factor higher for Illinois State and MInnesota, who will want even more badly to beat these big teams on their home courts.
We saw Michigan State get a relatively easy cover the other day at Purdue, but Vegas made a poor line on that game b/c of the uncertainty of the Boilermakers w/out 2 star players. There's no unknown variables like that in their game on Wednesday, and I think we see a cover by a good illinois state team that is nails at home.
Michigan State will not continue to cover at this high rate, and neither will any other huge power-conference team. I think this is the one that they drop.
(both spartans/shockers really are as good as everyone thinks they are, dont get me wrong, they're both awesome teams. just dont think they cover, awesome spot to take the home dogs)
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(both spartans/shockers really are as good as everyone thinks they are, dont get me wrong, they're both awesome teams. just dont think they cover, awesome spot to take the home dogs)
sloop let me say your are the shit homie real talk out of all these wanna be cappers i must admit you got the gift man..keep it up ive made sooooooo much doe off of your picks it should be banned lol..keep it coming!!!! and yes I took Minn 2mar feel like msu cant keep it going and this is def a great spot for them to take a L!
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sloop let me say your are the shit homie real talk out of all these wanna be cappers i must admit you got the gift man..keep it up ive made sooooooo much doe off of your picks it should be banned lol..keep it coming!!!! and yes I took Minn 2mar feel like msu cant keep it going and this is def a great spot for them to take a L!
George Mason -2.5 ODU +3.5 Central Florida -1.5 Southern Miss -1.5
Illinois state +6 Minnesota +6 Tennessee/Drake/Vanderbilt ML parlay Drexel/Delaware/VCU/Long Beach ML parlay Drexel/Delaware/VCU/Akron ML parlay
final.
i think UCSB comes ready to play after getting smeared by Long Beach the first time around, but there's too much talent on that team to lose at home. delaware will obviously win at towson, but no way I lay the points. Drexel is nails at home, and JMU's shorthanded, tiny, and just....bad. VCU? Probably not going to see a full effort w/ a lookahead, but if they get down there's no way Shaka will let them lose. Drake has a lookahead, but the Salukis are dreadful on the road, they've only won twice and they're both against awful teams. Drake is nice at home, should win this one regardless of the lookahead, as they haven't lost to a team nearly as bad as the Salukis all season. Akron should get a revenge game from Bowling Green, but the fact is that Akron is basically immortal at home, they havent lost to a bad team since November, and Bowling Green hasn't had an impressive win since November when they beat Temple.
was going to throw 2 units on the parlay, but figured long beach would be the one that might snub me, so going to diversify my risk a little and bring akron into the mix.
alright, that's the last post from me until game time.
GOOD LUCK ALL!
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George Mason -2.5 ODU +3.5 Central Florida -1.5 Southern Miss -1.5
Illinois state +6 Minnesota +6 Tennessee/Drake/Vanderbilt ML parlay Drexel/Delaware/VCU/Long Beach ML parlay Drexel/Delaware/VCU/Akron ML parlay
final.
i think UCSB comes ready to play after getting smeared by Long Beach the first time around, but there's too much talent on that team to lose at home. delaware will obviously win at towson, but no way I lay the points. Drexel is nails at home, and JMU's shorthanded, tiny, and just....bad. VCU? Probably not going to see a full effort w/ a lookahead, but if they get down there's no way Shaka will let them lose. Drake has a lookahead, but the Salukis are dreadful on the road, they've only won twice and they're both against awful teams. Drake is nice at home, should win this one regardless of the lookahead, as they haven't lost to a team nearly as bad as the Salukis all season. Akron should get a revenge game from Bowling Green, but the fact is that Akron is basically immortal at home, they havent lost to a bad team since November, and Bowling Green hasn't had an impressive win since November when they beat Temple.
was going to throw 2 units on the parlay, but figured long beach would be the one that might snub me, so going to diversify my risk a little and bring akron into the mix.
alright, that's the last post from me until game time.
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