SOUTH CAROLINA vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE - National Championship! The Letdown Spot is officially Square

Record: 9-15

This is an interesting spot. I looked at it from several different angles and those angles support both sides. It's up to you to choose the right angle. I went with one I thought best.

Angle #1

1. Does the classic "Letdown Spot" help us here?

The Letdown Spot Angle = A team is so emotionally high after a big victory, it doesn't prepare sufficiently and hasn't come down psychologically for the rigors of the following game and will lose it outright, even to modest competition.

So we have this angle in three parts IMO:

Part A:

A) Mississippi State just snapped the longest winning streak in basketball history and two days later faces a in-conference nemesis that is a #1 seed.

This helps us. This is classic capping. Most people stop here and take the GameCocks. Miss State is not playing an average team (and this angle says you can lose to average competition) it is playing an excellent team that knows it.

Result? Miss State should lose. 

Now let's look at the second aspect of this angle

Part B:

B) The books know squares will bet this way so they gave themselves points to compensate for it.

This is interesting. The line is -3.5 South Carolina even AFTER a team just beat the greatest basketball team ever in its sport. The books clearly were prepared for Mississippi State action and therefore expect a very tight game Miss St can win and/or cover in a nail-biter. So the 3.5 looms large here.

With this line, we can officially say this spot, this letdown theory, is no longer unique and books and squares know it well and it is in the line. That is just conjecture but this line has to say that in part.

Result? Miss State should win and/or cover because we agree that the books win more often than not and have set a sharp line.

Part C:

C) History

Correlation is not causation and this is only a sample size of two. But it is interesting.

I looked back at the 1974 Notre Dame team that ended UCLA 88 game win-streak to see what they did the next game.

Amazingly they BEAT an excellent Kansas team that won its conference that year straight up by 2. Now I don't know what the line would have been but if, like MSU, they were getting points, they obviously cover.

I also looked back at the team that beat the Huskies women's team in 2010 to end their 90 game win streak.

That was Stanford. Not only did they beat Cal by 33 the next game (which almost certainly was an easy cover), they won their next twenty four in a row, losing in only the Final Four.

So these two significant streaks sit against us. But they could simply be anomalies. I was very surprised ND won against Kansas the next game though. That was a shocker. Having said that, this was just something I was interested in and it sits against us.

Result: Miss St can win outright.

So that is the Letdown spot dissected and you can take it several ways.

But here is what does it for me:

Angle #2

2) In Women's College Basketball, if something happens over and over, expect it to continue to happen.

111 wins. If you bet the UConn ML 111 times against them you lost. Yes you lost the 112th time but 111 times before that is almost infinite in sports compared to that one loss.

What is the streak here? These are conference rivals.

Conference rivals, just like division opponents are familiar with each other.

So what do we expect? Mississippi State and SC to be neck and neck in terms of heads of match-ups.

Well guess what?

That is not the case. Mississippi State has lost their last TEN in a row against South Carolina.

What can we conclude from that? It's not 111 and could never be but like UConn we can moderately conclude that Mississippi State has not found a way to beat South Carolina in over a half decade and continues to struggle against them. And they will continue to until something changes. But not much has changed.

And this is the angle I'm embracing WITH the potential for the square letdown spot to help us here.

Mississippi State went through the toughest bracket beat Baylor (TOP quality) and UConn, who they were supposed to be fed to, both number 1 seeds and now they face ANOTHER number 1 seed.

The Letdown Spot says they can lose to average competition.

Here they face TOP SEED competition that has beaten them TEN in a row. That's a major trade-off in terms of the angle.

Now I love fading streaks. But you fade them when you have a strong inclination the angle will lose or else you'll lose your shirt. I don't think SC will lose here.

Finally, a little wrinkle angle that can help SC.

Angle #3:

3. The addition by subtraction Angle

South Carolina lost its leading rebounder and double-double machine Allisha Gray in the conference tournament. They've gone small since and have won out, with other players continually filling her role. So MSU will have to game plan for a reconstructed team in a mere 1 day off and off the biggest win ever in women's college basketball.

In addition, and this is key, most teams play zone against MSU. South Carolina has the defenders to play one on one and it's worked well with 2 wins over them this year, one by 3 and one by 10.

SO,

I am taking the following angles from above:

Angle #2 saying that 10 in a row should go to 11 in a row ESPECIALLY in women's college basketball

Angle #3 - Addition by subtraction.

Angle #1A - Taking on the classic letdown spot but realizing this letdown spot is against GREAT competition and knowing this angle is buffered by Angle #2 and Angle #3.

So now it's time for the pick. Do I simply disregard all this given my recent record?

I can't do it. I think that beating UConn, even if they lose the Championship, will be like winning it all anyway. And I have the above to back me up. This doesn't smell like UCF because UCF is sure as hell no South Carolina in their respective sport. UCF can lose to anyone on any given day, even South Florida. So you can't go home unhappy after that win against UConn as compensation.

Not crazy about the line that is rising so the books can backdoor this one so I have to lay the points

The pick:

South Carolina -3.5 over Mississippi State

True but I kept the comparison to basketball.