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Sports Investing Philosophy 101...

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Posts: 56

packersbackers

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 52832

Posted: Mar. 25, 2019 - 8:04 PM ET #26

Smack...i have bookmarked this thread and will read it later and refresh it over time. an_cheers

Also, i would add that covers has a few hidden gem cappers all over this site...the trick is to find them, befriend them, and learn from them...everyone here can learn how to improve at sports capping once they remove all ego driven motivation, and accept the humility of taking a total misread losing wager, amd trying to understand what went wrong, if anything, so that we dont repeat the same mistakes in the future.

Great thread buddy...a lot of wisdom will come out of this space over time.

Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious

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ROBERTMH

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2018

Posts: 1392

Posted: Mar. 25, 2019 - 8:13 PM ET #27

DAMN GOOD WRITE UP AND TRUTH BE TOLD BY YOU!!!

an_cheers

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smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Mar. 25, 2019 - 8:33 PM ET #28

Appreciate all the comments, gentlemen...

If any little part of this benefits anyone even a little bit, it is well worth the time and effort...

I absolutely hate to see the new guys make all the same mistakes that I did...history repeats itself way too often in every area of life...maybe we can slow it down a bit here...

In this age of data collection and tracking...if you don't think the books track each and every player in multiple metrics and ways...you are fooling yourself...it's just one small step to customize lines for individual players and I personally believe it happens on a daily basis on select players in select ways...

If you are not aware of it...you won't even be watching for it...

PM for the skinny on the down low

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skoonr3

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2018

Posts: 6660

Posted: Mar. 25, 2019 - 8:38 PM ET #29

On 5D I punch a Line IN ...and all of a sudden...espec 2H its a diff line and I hit the button submit.....DING there a hook on it I didnt think I agreed to....busted me a few times till I wised up and refreshed and started all over and got thee expected line....uhhh yep here....

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redtear2989

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2016

Posts: 919

Posted: Mar. 25, 2019 - 11:26 PM ET #30

Very well written and I couldn't agree more. As much I enjoy capping, I'm a somewhat undisciplined better who can go on tilt and as such didn't place a single wager this season on CBB. My heterosexual life partner, Mikey, asked me if that helped me cap better this season and I truly believe it did because it took emotion out of the equation and ss smack said, you are you're own worst enemy and letting your emotions dictate your wagers will only hurt your bankroll. Being self-aware of when you're on tilt and disciplined betting is paramount to having any level of success.

A post like this has been needed for quite some time, I applaud you for the time and effort that has gone into it. Bravo.

an_clap

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smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Mar. 26, 2019 - 12:26 AM ET #31

Parlays, Teasers and other Exotic bets...

In a single word...bad...

A bad idea for a beginner gambler...why?

These bets are more difficult to win because the require you to pick more than one winner to win the bet...two, three, four...or more...all must win/cover for the bet to pay out...

They do pay out better odds but the books have no problem offering these payouts to the exotic player as they know these players are often gamblers and will lose much more than they win over time...

BUT...and I know this...exotics are hard to resist...

If you do choose to play them...a few important guidelines and suggestions are in order...

Look for good money lines and make a money line parlay wager...a money line wager means that the teams you select only have to win the game...there is no point spread to cover...many times this is the best choice for a parlay wager...

Start with two teams...the more you play, the harder it is...pick your two best wagers and then...

Drop your standard wager DOWN...if you would normally have played these two teams for 1% of your bankroll...play the exotic with half that amount...or a quarter... .5% or .25%...if you do hit it, the extra odds on the payout will make up for the lower wagered amount...

The more teams you play, the lower your wager amount and risk should be...

Again, bankroll management MUST be in play at all times and DOUBLY so with exotics...don't get carried away and NEVER fall in love with a wager so much that it takes you out of your limits...

Finally, track your exotic wager record...it's not hard to do...you should actually be tracking all of your wagers and win/loss records to determine if you are sticking to your bankroll management plan and if not, where are you making your mistakes..

If you are honest with yourself, you will see with your tracking that exotic bets are much harder to hit and your winning percentage vs straight bets will be much lower...

In summary...stick to straight bets as a beginner and build your bankroll...take a shot at an exotic on rare occasion when you feel you have a high +EV opportunity with 2 teams...emphasize money line parlays at first as the teams selected only have to win the game, not cover a point spread...

And...should you take a big shot and win a 4, 5 or 6 teamer...immediately buy a lottery ticket for $1 as you might be an odds on favorite to win something huge that day...