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System Alert for Sunday March 7th

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Posted: #76
This is off topic (and I am embarrassed to post this pick), but I have been pretty solid betting awards this year.  I hit Tim L to win the Cy Young, Colt McCoy to not win the Heisman, Nate Robinson to win slam dunk title, hit a grammy win with Beyonce.

Anyway, if you have matchbook there is -212 on Sandra Bullock to win the best actress Oscar, I already have 1-unit on it and would be very surprised if Meryl Streep upsets her.  -212 is pretty nice value on someone who has won a ton of honors this award season already and is a solid favorite and the Academy has a history of rewarding someone as an almost "lifetime acheivement" award in these types of situations. 

I will now attempt to regain my manhood by studying more college hoops
 
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Posted: #77
Kine I would really appreciate your thoughts on the Fairfield  vs  Niagara game.  Can't understand why a team that beat another by 6 points, granted at home, are 1 1/2 point underdogs.  Already locked in Fairfield large so hopefully you won't have an obvious reason that I missed.   The opener at Legends was -5 Fairfield, which really threw me for a loop when I saw + 1 to  +1 1/2 and even + 2 everywhere else.  Didn't find any injuries or suspensions so just wondering what gives.  Did I fall into a trap or is this just because Nia. always seems to be in the finals of this tourney?  Thoughts appreciated and thanks for the N Ill. win.  Keep up the good work.
 
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Posted: #78
ESPN simulations has Niagara by 4
Kenpom has Fairfield by 1

I think Fairfield wins a tight one, but the uptempo of Niagara has me a bit worried because if they get out to a hot start, it could change the dynamic of the whole game.  I watched the Niagara game they played at home when they blew out Siena so I have seen what their best is and its scary.  That was also a nice win against a tough Iona team last night so their confidence should be high.  This is going to be a close, tough game probably decided at the end.  If that is the case, I would rather be backing Fairfield
 
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Posted: #79
 
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Posted: #80
with you on sandra bullock! 

 
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Posted: #81

Professor!

I know the system worked in Februrary.  I have a couple of questions, please let us know what you think.

1.. How early can this system be applied, a few weeks after the beginning of the season, or January etc.

2.  Do think, this system will be will ever change?  or do you think Vegas will adjust, have you ever compared the Vegas lines vs kenpom's lines when using the system?

3.  Do you have other systems for other sports?  anyone who reads this can answer to help us all

Thanks!

 
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Posted: #82
YOUR system did it again !!!!    well done ...
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by pinerider:

Professor!

I know the system worked in Februrary.  I have a couple of questions, please let us know what you think.

1.. How early can this system be applied, a few weeks after the beginning of the season, or January etc.

2.  Do think, this system will be will ever change?  or do you think Vegas will adjust, have you ever compared the Vegas lines vs kenpom's lines when using the system?

3.  Do you have other systems for other sports?  anyone who reads this can answer to help us all

Thanks!



1. I chose mid-Feb because the games that we are betting with this system are all sucky.  The home team has to be 180 or worse and to have that team a more than 6 point favorite they have to really be playing someone sucky.  The thing with these sucky teams are they, for the most part, they are just playing out the string of what is a terrible season and we are trying to take advantage of the teams "giving up on the season" so to speak.  You could use this strategy of taking the road dog when playing a mediocre team anytime and I feel like it will be successful, but mid-Feb seems like the sweet spot to catch those teams ready to quit.

2. The system will be ever-changing and we will try to see if we can pro-create some siblings so that its not lonely!  Vegas doesn't need to adjust because people still bet Northern Illinois -11 against Toledo (epic ATS loss) and then bet Eastern Michigan -8.5 against that Northern Illinois team that they think sucks (epic ATS loss).  This is a fairly contrarian system as most people don't like the plays.  I wouldn't worry about what kenpom says the final score will be - we can gauge enough value from the rankings themselves.

3. None yet, besides my "Do anything Gamehunter tells me to do in baseball" system. 
 
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Posted: #84
Another fantastic play from KP, you're the man
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by piljoo:

with you on sandra bullock! 



Hahaha - hopefully it is a nice ride!
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

ESPN simulations has Niagara by 4
Kenpom has Fairfield by 1

I think Fairfield wins a tight one, but the uptempo of Niagara has me a bit worried because if they get out to a hot start, it could change the dynamic of the whole game.  I watched the Niagara game they played at home when they blew out Siena so I have seen what their best is and its scary.  That was also a nice win against a tough Iona team last night so their confidence should be high.  This is going to be a close, tough game probably decided at the end.  If that is the case, I would rather be backing Fairfield
Thanks Kine, at least I feel a little better knowing you see it the way I do.  Saw Fairfield in person at Rhodys home "pit" the Ryan Center and thought the coach did an outstanding job of controlling the tempo of that game.  Have to believe that Rhody's got every bit as much fire power as Nia does, that's why I like the Stags in this one.  Another of my larger plays so hopefully we're both right.  BOL and keep up the good work.
 
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Posted: #87
Wow Kine, just looked at the box score of the Rhody game which was played early in the year.  For the life of me I can't believe the final was 89 - 84 Rhody, a Fairfield cover.  Just didn't, until I refreshed my memory, remember that kind of game.  I think it was how efficient they were that made it look a little more casual than the final score would indicate.  Still not worried because at least I know now they can stand up and take some punches and still hang in,  in a high scoring game.  Again BOL
 
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Posted: #88
Nice one Kine.
 
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Posted: #89
 
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Posted: #90
GOOD GOING KP WITH SYSTEM PICKS. N.ILL,ALSO I HIT LONG ISLAND,AND LATER HOPEFULLY AMERICAN+9.BOL TO YOU
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



1. I chose mid-Feb because the games that we are betting with this system are all sucky.  The home team has to be 180 or worse and to have that team a more than 6 point favorite they have to really be playing someone sucky.  The thing with these sucky teams are they, for the most part, they are just playing out the string of what is a terrible season and we are trying to take advantage of the teams "giving up on the season" so to speak.  You could use this strategy of taking the road dog when playing a mediocre team anytime and I feel like it will be successful, but mid-Feb seems like the sweet spot to catch those teams ready to quit.

2. The system will be ever-changing and we will try to see if we can pro-create some siblings so that its not lonely!  Vegas doesn't need to adjust because people still bet Northern Illinois -11 against Toledo (epic ATS loss) and then bet Eastern Michigan -8.5 against that Northern Illinois team that they think sucks (epic ATS loss).  This is a fairly contrarian system as most people don't like the plays.  I wouldn't worry about what kenpom says the final score will be - we can gauge enough value from the rankings themselves.

3. None yet, besides my "Do anything Gamehunter tells me to do in baseball" system. 
Amen to that Bro. Can't wait for bases.
 
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Posted: #92
Great job this weekend, Kine

It's too bad I missed it, was visiting with the parents back in CT all weekend.

Looking forward to Championship Week
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by riccio14:

Great job this weekend, Kine

It's too bad I missed it, was visiting with the parents back in CT all weekend.

Looking forward to Championship Week


Good luck to you as well, I always look for your threads.  The utah st/nmsu under from yesterday would have been right in your wheelhouse! 
 
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Posted: #94
American is still a play for later? Sorry if that is a dumb ?.
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by firaman761:

American is still a play for later? Sorry if that is a dumb ?.


It is not a system play
 
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Posted: #96
Sorry found the game for later against Leheigh (sp). BOL Hope it hits.
 
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Posted: #97
No system play gotcha.
 
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Posted: #98
Thank you KP. Played some of your plays over the weekend and worked out well. St Louis and No Illinois were the money plays for me.
 
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Posted: #99
Thanks for the NIU pick.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Good luck to you as well, I always look for your threads.  The utah st/nmsu under from yesterday would have been right in your wheelhouse! 


Thanks

I don't have time tonight to do a full write up, but I'll be on the Portland/St Mary's Over 140. I know that Portland plays at a relatively slow pace, but I love how efficient both teams are on the offensive end. And with both teams desperately needing to get to the WCC finals, I can see a close game with plenty of end game fouling.
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