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System Clarification and System Play Alert Tomorrow (Feb 25th)

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by padre16:

senor kine,

is Canisus at +4 a sys play?



No, plays are against home teams that are ranked 180 or worse by Kenpom and are more than 6 pt favorites
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by bigstork311:

And sorry for the spelling I is aint no be and don't be claiming to be a gooder speller lol, just kidding but I know I spell a bunch of crap wrong mostly cause I just try to type it fast. And don't really care. Like above I was trying to say I saw a few people ask if the home team is -4 if it is still a play if it was first he would have listed it was a play and 2 more importantly he clearly states the line has to be -6.5... I mean how much clearer can it be???


Thanks for the support Stork, I am sure cappers means well and we definitely don't want people coming on the board and bs'ing us with their records and such, but trust me when I say I would never do that.  Good luck today
 
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Posted: #78

good luck my man

 
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Posted: #79

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Thanks for the support Stork, I am sure cappers means well and we definitely don't want people coming on the board and bs'ing us with their records and such, but trust me when I say I would never do that.  Good luck today

 

No problem KP, Just annoys me cause there are so many assholes on this site  you should be one of the last people they should worry about.  For the most part most people are cool but the few jerk off's out there really screw this site up. But whatever  lets just make some $$$ thats what it is all about

 
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Posted: #80
It looks like we have 5 plays using Vegas lines for tomorrow.
 
Subject to change based on the public and tonight's kenpom adjustment:
 
Northern Illinois +9.5
UL-Lafayette +6 or +7 right now
Tennessee St +7.5
UNO +7
Pepperdine +9
 
A handful of other favs are in the -2 to -4 range. I guess we have to wait until for the public tomorrow to move the lines.
 
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Posted: #81

don't get caught in the back-and-forth w the dumbasses. you just do your think.

appreciate your work.

 
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Posted: #82
yo kine whats up man? riding the Idaho state train tonight...lets get it ...choo choo!
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by tmpeus78:


Here is the system: 
If a team ranked 180 or higher in Kenpom's ranking is FAVORED AT HOME by more than 6 points, BET AGAINST that team.

The reason I chose the ranking 180 or higher is basically because it is the bottom half of crappy team's in the country.  Those teams, in my humble opinion, don't deserve to give as many points just because they have a home game as good team does (although Vegas disagrees with me and gives them plenty of credit for being home).  I chose over 6 as that is a three-possession lead and many crappy teams don't win by that very often (hence why they are crappy), and for it to be that big of a spread they would have to be playing a pretty crappy team themselves.  

Here is how the system did on Saturday: I have listed the Kenpom ranking of the home team and line, the margin of victory and where or not the system won:

#189 Citadel -10 LOST by 6 (system win)
#200 Loyola Maryland -8 LOST by 1 (system win)
#178 Davidson -12.5 won by 3 (system win)
#201 Manhattan -8 won by 16 (system loss - but Towson only suited 7-guys and was missing their best player)
#217 Ball State -13 won by 16 (system loss)
#214 Rice -7 LOST by 11 (system win)
#227 Samford -7 won by 6 (system win)
#205 Georgia St -9 won by 15 (system loss)
#197 Central Michigan -11.5 won by 6 (system win)
#209 Radford -9.5 won by 8 (system win)
#267 UC Irvine -14 won by 1 (system win)
#214 Cal St Fullerton -20 won by 4 (system win)
#253 Jacksonville St. -11.5 LOST by 4 (system win)
#233 Evansville -7 LOST by 2 (system win)
#198 Louisiana Lafayette -11 won by 2 (system win)
#234 Northern Arizona -7.5 won by 3 (system win)
#188 Boise St -12.5 LOST by 8 (system win)
#247 Hawaii -7 LOST by 13 (system win)

There were 18 games that qualified and the system went 15-3 including 7 straight up moneyline wins at +200 or more.

This is a system that I will be using exclusively next season in the middle of next February and wanted you fellas to be aware (I choose February as well as that is when most crappy teams are folding up shop and calling it a system and mailing in performances - add any other cliche you like)


Thank you taking the timwe and effort to explain this. My question is if a +180 team is favored by 5 1/2, do you buy up the 1/2 point to get it to 6? Or do you pass?
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



As the system is currently stated, it is a play as long as it is -6.5 or more.  Now if the line opened at -9 and got bet down to -7, you might want to layoff, but it is still a system play, you have to decide for yourself if there is still value.  Same goes for injuries (such as with this game today).  My argument would be that you will ALWAYS find a reason to not bet on the teams this system has us betting.  The Greensboros, Radfords, and Illnois Chicago's of the world are not very attractive to bet, but as we have seen these last two weeks, there are tons of value with these teams in the right situations.


Great.  Let's make some god damn money
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Just reposted it,

1. Must be ranked 180 or worst on Kenpom
2. Must be home
3. Must be -6.5 or higher
4. Must be from a conference that always have lines (see pg 2 of this thread for way too much info on that)
5. Bet against this team


This is regardless of who they're playing?
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by callmetim:



Thank you taking the timwe and effort to explain this. My question is if a +180 team is favored by 5 1/2, do you buy up the 1/2 point to get it to 6? Or do you pass?


Pass and it has to be OVER 6 so 6.5 or more
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by callmetim:



This is regardless of who they're playing?


Yes, but they would have to be playing someone sucky to be favorite by more than 6
 
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Posted: #88
What time is Idaho state supposed to show up for this game?
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by zanman822:

What time is Idaho state supposed to show up for this game?
    
 
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Posted: #90
idaho state       
 
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Posted: #91
No Gilcrest and looks bad boys - still a chance - Portland St still sucks too -
 
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Posted: #92
how much time is left in the game?
 
 
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Posted: #93
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