Ok so I decided to try and dig into the 7/10's (and 8/9's maybe a post later) to see if there was any historical data that might help us make some money. I used the tournaments from 2011-2021 (10 tournaments). If you read my post yesterday I stated the shot clock as a reasoning for pinpointing the post 2015 seasons, I won't do that in this case as the 7/10 as there isn't a huge disparity in the level of the two teams. Ok so let's get into it.
In the tournaments from 2011 through 2021:
The 7 seed is 25-14 (64.1 win %) (no contest for Oregon vs VCU, 2021)
Of the 7 seeds 14 losses, 10 occurred when that team scored less than 65 points (71.4%)
For the 15 seeds, 9 of their 14 wins have come when they have scored 70 or more points (64.2%)
Of the 25 wins, the 7 seeds' have only won 6 games by double digits. All have actually been 15+ in those 6 wins. Every other win has been by 8 or fewer points.
-I think this is a crazy stat that in 39 games there hasn't been one instance where the winning margin for the 7 seed was between 9-14 points, considering how close these teams should be to one another.
Since the 2016 tournament (19 games) the 7's are only 11-8 and have only won 2 games by double digits.
So as was expected these games seem to be a toss up with the edge going to the 7's but less of an edge as of recent times. If one were to simply tease all the 10's to +8.5 points, they would have covered in 33/39 games (84.6%) of the matchups since 2011.
Another interesting note is that in these 6 games, either the 7 seed scored 84 or more points or the 10 seed scored 55 or less. .
Since the 2015 tournament, that percentage grows to 91.3% (21/23 games) and in both of the games that the 8.5 was covered since 2015, the 7 seeds that won had 84 and 93 points. With the exception of Missouri none of these teams throw up points in that range on a regular basis. Although, I will be teasing all the 10's, if there is one of these that would concern me it would be the Missouri game. I may omit that one from the tease and add another, but Utah St. is no slouch themselves in terms of offense. Nonetheless, I will list all the potential tease values.
This years 7/10's and current spread:
7 Michigan St. vs. 10 USC (+2) -> USC +10.5 (-500)
7 Texas A&M vs. 10 Penn St. (+3) -> Penn St. +12.5 (-588)
7 Northwestern vs. 10 Boise St. (+1.5) -> Boise St. +10.5 (-526)
7 Missouri vs. 10 Utah St. (-1.5) -> Utah St. +8.5 (-476)
Betting Odds +102
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