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THATS IT! I AM BETTING WITH VEGAS! *MUST READ*

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Captain
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Posted: #26
hey bet to win you hit it on the money 99.999999 of the public lose good eye and good thinking if you will bet aginst the public you will  come on top I posmise but 1 thing to remember do you have the the balls to pull the trigger not saying you don't just in peplole in general like P.S.just like its sunday night and your down 2 dimes and the game is greenbay/ detroit at PICK do you have the balls to pull the trigger on detroit 99.99999 pepole can't but good luck keep up the good work ty
Dilaudid8
 
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Posted: #27
Hey Bet to Win, I have been looking very closely at this for the past year. Its been paying pretty well too. Im not a big bettor but its definitely provided me with some pocket money. I added you as friends, i wanna run my thoughts by you so you can let me know what you think. Friend me back.
 
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Posted: #28
Thanks Kinky and everyone for your comments.

Looks like it should be a profitable day (I hope)

I didnt take Cavs ML, I meant to put +17, not that it mattered..

I will post a total after the Clippers game has ended.

BOL
 
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Posted: #29
My computer crashed. Unbelievable.

Anyway here were the 1/31 results

Texas A&M +1.5 (2 UNITS) 
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 (2 UNITS)  (WON SU)
NJ Nets +3.5 (2 UNITS)  (WON SU)
Louisville +5 (2 UNITS) 
Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 (2 UNITS) 
Louisville ML (1 UNIT) 
Cleveland Cavs (1 UNIT) 

Might decide to just play the Top 5 bets in the longrun. 

TOTAL RECAP: 3-4 (0.00 UNITS)

NBA- 2-2 (+1.00 UNIT)

NCAA- 1-2 (-1.00 UNIT)
 
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Posted: #30
2/1 TOP BETS (FADE OF TOP 10)

Ole Miss +6.5 (WON SU)
Sacramento Kings +6.5
Wisconsin Badgers -5 

Portland Blazers +5.5  
Bradley +5 (WON SU) 

Washington Wizards +9.5 

Vandy +4.5 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #31
what site is this you speak of?
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #32
its vegasinsider.com on the bottom right there is a top ten bets chart
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Squares finally got killed in college basketball this weekend with a number of the most popular bets going down in flames. This is the time of year where sharps really start to have a major edge on the public as teams become more and more desperate and the potential for let-downs and look-aheads increases.

With that said, a strict "fade the public" stragedy has proven to be an average system at best and an unprofitable myth at worst. Don't indiscriminately fade the consensus picks because of one bad weekend, but do bear in mind that the idea of "bad lines" or "Vegas mistakes" are fallacies created by people setting themselves up for failure. All lines are set for a reason and those that appear to good to be true generally in fact are...



PERFECT POST
 
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Posted: #34
Ole Miss +6.5 (WON SU)
Sacramento Kings +6.5
Wisconsin Badgers -5 

Portland Blazers +5.5  (WON SU)
Bradley +5 (WON SU) 

Washington Wizards +9.5
Vandy +4.5

SYSTEM WENT 7-0!

WILL UPDATE STATS TONIGHT!!
 
Captain
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Posted: #35
I HAVE USED VEGAS INSIDER FOR YEARS AND HAVE NEVER SEEN THESE TOP 10 BETS YOU SPEAK OF.......CARE TO ENLIGHTEN ME?????
 
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Posted: #36
Goto vegasinsider.com

Look on the bottom right of the page, its titled TODAYS TOP BETTING TRENDS. It updates every 5 minutes with bets placed at sportsbook.com

 
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Posted: #37
RECORD AS OF 2/1/11:

OVERALL 10-4 (71%)

NBA 5-2 (+8 UNITS)

NCAA 5-2 (+6 UNITS)

__________________________

Once again, the way I determine units is at 6:45 PM EST I look at vegasinsider.com and the Top 5 Bets are worthy of a 2 Unit play and the next 5 are worthy of a 1 unit play.

Obviously as the night gets older, some plays jump other spots, but obviously we cant change units once bets are already placed.

I will not be at my computer until late tonight, so at 6:45 I will jot down the Top 10 Plays and keep a record like I did last night.

I am not making any wagers until I feel comfortable wagering with my system. 

I really feel like this system has potential to make us some nice change. Everynight its not even 10 plays as some teams are in the Top 10 twice, so I just go with the team that has more money on it.

BOL to all my supporters and followers. 
 
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Posted: #38
i like this
 
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Posted: #39
Swept the public, lol.. nice 
 
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Posted: #40

Isn't this like the 100th attempt at this system the past few weeks?

I will ask you the same question I have asked many... how does what the public selects impact the result of a fair basketball game?

Where you...me or anyone else puts their respective money is 1000% totally irrelevant in calculating the result.  What your doing is looking at data that has no connection to the result and are implying it does.

The fade the public system is nothing more than a disagreement in the terms of value. Novice bettors tend to overvalue things such as record-name power and underestimate things such as look aheads and home court advantages.

But basing selections off of percentages of wagers placed is pointless and ignorant.

 

 

 
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Posted: #41
Hey BTW, what will you do with the Dallas/Knicks game as they are both 2 and 4 of the top 5? A no play I suppose?
 
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Posted: #42
It's no big deal, just go to scoresandodds.com, same info on the left side of the page, the teams keep changing throughout the day, the top ten wagers are usually favorites, example today : so far they have the Bulls, Pacers, Dallas, Sixers, Memphis, Denver, and U Conn. There are days that the favorite win,so the top ten are correct. and If u follow this guy on his system, u'll go 0-6 or maybe 3-7. I've used this site for over 15 years, i only monitor their odds movement, the top ten wager are hit and miss, follow at your own risk. These sites "scoresandodds.com, covers.com,and vegasinsider.com are all link to each other. they are the same people behind it. If u don't believe me, check out all three sites. 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by BET_TO_WIN:

RECORD AS OF 2/1/11:

OVERALL 10-4 (71%)

NBA 5-2 (+8 UNITS)

NCAA 5-2 (+6 UNITS)

__________________________

Once again, the way I determine units is at 6:45 PM EST I look at vegasinsider.com and the Top 5 Bets are worthy of a 2 Unit play and the next 5 are worthy of a 1 unit play.

Obviously as the night gets older, some plays jump other spots, but obviously we cant change units once bets are already placed.

I will not be at my computer until late tonight, so at 6:45 I will jot down the Top 10 Plays and keep a record like I did last night.

I am not making any wagers until I feel comfortable wagering with my system. 

I really feel like this system has potential to make us some nice change. Everynight its not even 10 plays as some teams are in the Top 10 twice, so I just go with the team that has more money on it.

BOL to all my supporters and followers. 
They change because some games already started, so they got deleted. 
 
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Posted: #44
It's 11:00 am Vegas time the top ten has change again, Oklahoma just appear at #2, and Baylor appear at #4, so I play Baylor because lot of people in Covers like the Oklahoma play, that seals it for me. Baylor is play #1.  What is the big deal, there is no system, U r taking a chance on a non popular play in Baylor. That's the secret. 
 
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Posted: #45
Why not track it here at covers???....Don't think there's much difference, and scores and odds  has the same thing in the upper right corner....What ya think??....Yesterday, on scores and odds, CREIGHTON was the 'top pick!'
 
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Posted: #46
any picks tonight? thanks
 
Captain
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Posted: #47
I TRACKED SIMILAR NUMBERS SOME TIME BACK AND OVER THE LONG RUN THE PUBLIC IS ABOUT 52%. NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MONEY.
 
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Posted: #48
I will post plays tomorrow everyone at 6:30.

Here were the plays as of 6:45 PM EST on 2/2/11

The Knicks/Mavs game I wouldnt have played with real money but because this is a test run I used it with the system.

___________________

Syracuse +3.5  (WON SU)

Indiana (CBB) +3  (WON SU)

LA Clippers +2.5 *PENDING*

Maryland +4 *PENDING*

Knicks -2 

Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5 

I will post the final results once the Clippers game goes final. Thanks for following.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:

Isn't this like the 100th attempt at this system the past few weeks?

I will ask you the same question I have asked many... how does what the public selects impact the result of a fair basketball game?

Where you...me or anyone else puts their respective money is 1000% totally irrelevant in calculating the result.  What your doing is looking at data that has no connection to the result and are implying it does.

The fade the public system is nothing more than a disagreement in the terms of value. Novice bettors tend to overvalue things such as record-name power and underestimate things such as look aheads and home court advantages.

But basing selections off of percentages of wagers placed is pointless and ignorant.

 

 


Great points and I respect all of them. My response to you is that I am betting against the games that have the most money wagered on them. I am not simply fading the public on certain  spots, key matchups, etc but on spots based on money being wagered.
 
 
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Posted: #50

You have no idea how much is wagered on each side...you just have a percentage which are often very misleading.

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