Posted:
#1
2016 record: 5-1
This game is not for the faint of heart. You will see some awful basketball in this game so backing either side will leave you squeamish for several stretches of minutes during this game.
So why did I cap it?
Well Donald Rumsfeld who served as Secretary of Defense during the Bush administration, summed a situation like this up perfectly with his most famous trainwreck of a quote:
"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are also known uknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we don't know we don't know."
We know we know this game exists. We know the later rounds exist but with what matchup (known unknowns). We don't know what the matchup or more importantly, what the line will be in later rounds (unknown unknowns).
Thanks Donald!
So we knew this game existed for 4 days. Therefore, despite these being two woeful teams, they are far easier to cap in 4 days than having to cap two good teams in a later round in less than 24 hours.
We are taking South Florida. Here is why.
1. ECU plays a game that doesn't play to its strengths.
They are a guard heavy team with three G's, 2 F's and no center. Because of this they live and die by the jump shot and threes. If they fall you will lose. Don't worry, they don't fall often at all. The problem with ECU is they are not good at shooting the ball from the perimeter.
They rank 244th in the nation in this area at 42.7%. They also rank 175th in 3 pt percentage. Why cater to bad shooters? Why not have some semblance of an inside game? Because they don't have much in regards to recruits. They're recruiting from foreign countries and you'll see this if you watch the game. Those foreign recruits have heart but they can't shoot a lick. This is terrible team. They show some guts here and there but overall they are not good (and neither is USF for that matter :))
I will note South Florida actually shoots the ball worse at 280th but they have an inside game and frontcourt presence as a bailout. They are a good rebounding team at 66th in the nation and excellent at blocking shots. They had 11 in a win vs Tulane so they will eat you up if you come inside. This makes outside shooting even more of a priority for ECU to live and die with. Also a lot of that horrid shooting came when SFU was on a long losing streak and they've picked it up a bit lately.
I also wanted to note ECU plays a 2-3 zone on defense. This is because they want to collapse the middle when a player drives or a big man gets a pass down low. They can't do anything else defensively. It allows for wide open threes at times. So if USF can get itself up for this game, we may she shots fall more often than not and better they won't be defended well.
Unfortunatley, USF can't shoot the three and are quite undisciplined. But it does leave for the opportunity for wide open shots should they trail late or if we need a backdoor (which we shouldn't).
2. Recent play
I can assure you the USF you saw at the beginning of the season is not the same one as this team.
I loved their fight against Tulsa last game. They were within 6 points of Tulsa on the road in a must win for a bubble team like Tulsa, a pretty damn good team. Falling 83-73 on late free throws, they really showed a lot of fight in a game that couldn't have changed their seeding for this tournament. It is that kind of inspired play that gives terrible teams confidence and we saw that in USF last game.
How did ECU do last game? They had the doors blown off them 83-53 by a fledgling Memphis team.
In fact ECU hasn't scored over 56 pts in their past three games. Why? They are not shooting the ball well and it's coming at the worst possible time in a lost season, at least for this game.
Moreover, South Florida is 2-3 in its last 5 but has an outright win over Memphis. 3 of their past 5 games have been very good ones for this team. It's the right time for this team to get on a mini roll for this bet.
0
that's how I've always made my money
Hot Forum Topics
