Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 26-15, +52.45
March Leans: 12-10
If you’ve paid attention all year to my Illinois analysis, it’s been pretty straight forward. This is a team that defends exceptionally well in the half court, but they themselves have trouble scoring in the half court. That concern’s sort of masked today as Iowa brings in the fastest tempo in the Big-10. After the 43-7 run that Nebraska put on them, and all the hoopla of the Bruce Weber press conference, I had come out and said that there was really only one spot left on the schedule where I could have taken a shot with Illinois and that was the only remaining home game where coincidentally they faced off against fast paced Iowa. Back to the analysis on the year, Bruce is a team that will run if he thinks he has advantages doing so against some bad defenses. He went toe to toe with Missouri in a 73 possession game. Can he outscore a team like Missouri? No, but if it’s going to help the offensive output, he’s going to take a chance with his defense. Here’s Illinois’ point totals against the fastest teams in the conference this year:
79
67
65
71
Out of conference #’s against fast teams:
71
82
74
48 (this came against UNLV in the United Center where Illinois hasn’t shot well in years, and UNLV defense is a tad bit better than Iowa, and by tad bit, I mean a ton.)
So, nothing’s going to change today. The possession total is sure to go over the 65 mark where these two played about a week and a half ago. Illinois was sluggish to start the game, and actually held a pretty big lead until Iowa made a run late with pressure, and Illinois didn’t have the right line-ups on the floor to combat it as Bruce has been in this crazy lineup switch thing over the past couple weeks to get these guys motivated. Motivation should come today. When guys like Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard are being benched, you get motivation in spots like this. And when the other guys are getting more experience, it helps in spots like this. Illinois hasn’t had a thing to play for since the 43-7 run at Nebraska. Shit hit the fan, the rest is history. Should get a motivated group here today, and one with the better defense, in the up-tempo scene they like to play in. If the game’s a snail, then yah, Illinois is going to look pitiful in the half-court, but nothing I’ve ever seen from Franny Mac suggests this one is slow. In terms of the match-ups and scheme, if Iowa goes zone after the pressure, Illinois has shooters to combat it, but they also get transition if this is a fast paced game to get away from the half-court. Got Brandon Paul (top 500 in block and steal %’s) on Gatens, and a really good attacking team like Iowa who likes to get in the paint comes in against 7’1 Leonard. It’s a tough draw for Iowa, and a very favorable one for the Illini.
Think the over’s got a decent shot, too with the # of possessions I’m expecting, but early tip and a motivated Illinois defense keeping it to just a lean.
5* Illinois -2
Lean: Iowa/Illinois Over 132
Gonna be a full day...
GL
0
hope you kill the books today
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