Posted:
#1
Toledo opening at 19 and moving to 19.5 has me perplex after thinking about it. This line is based on Buffalo's solid overall record and home record (8-2) Whereas, Toledo's overall record looks like thrash,overall record 4-17, away record 0-10. At first glance when looking at the records at a standpoint, you would agree with the line the oddsmaker put out. Now onto common opponents, Kent St., Bowling Green, WMICH and NOIlL and Here are the corresponding lines
for those games.
vs Kent St. : Toledo +18.5 @ AWAY/ Buff -4 @ HOME
vs BG : Toledo +5 @ HOME/ Buff -11.5 @ HOME
vs WMICH: Toledo +9.5 @ HOME/ Buff -2.5 @ AWAY
vs NOILL: Toledo +11 @ AWAY/ Buff - 13 @ HOME
vs Young St: Toledo + 13.5 @ AWAY/ Buff -3.5 @ AWAY
*Considering @ Home is worth 8 pts.
Point Diff from each game respectively, 14.5, 16.5, 3.5, 16, 10.
So is the oddsmaker really making you lay the chalk with Buffalo record? Or do they really know something as don't? I really think the line is off and its a huge exaggeration due to the overall records.
Furthermore, with the common opponent theme. Buffalo is 2-3 ATS and 3-2 SU, losing as a -11.5 fav vs BG and losing to YT St as a -3.5 fav, Whereas, Toledo is 4-1 ATS (losing to BG by 6 pts as a 5 pt dog) and 1-4 SU, beating WMICH as a 9.5 dog.
Now here comes the stats for these 2 teams.
Toledo PPG 57 / PA 70.6 / FG% 39.9 / FGA% 44.9
Buffalo PPG 73.2 / PA 65.4
Now lets take a closer look at Toledo in their last five games. Where they've found there groove offensively and defensively. With a young team who needs to play day in and day out with confidence. Their definitely not lacking that knowing that there not losing by double digits as often and keeping their opponents under 42% FG.
PPG 61.2 / 67.2 / 40.2 FG% 40.2 / FGA% 41.2
I'll be on Toledo but for much? These stats support my play and if i lose, ill feel like a douche spending all this time writing this up. Normally I don't have writes up but this one definitely deserves one and I hope we can hurt the books.
PS. Shout to Spaz, I borrowed his/her format comparing the oppo spreads and etc.
vs Kent St. : Toledo +18.5 @ AWAY/ Buff -4 @ HOME
vs BG : Toledo +5 @ HOME/ Buff -11.5 @ HOME
vs WMICH: Toledo +9.5 @ HOME/ Buff -2.5 @ AWAY
vs NOILL: Toledo +11 @ AWAY/ Buff - 13 @ HOME
vs Young St: Toledo + 13.5 @ AWAY/ Buff -3.5 @ AWAY
*Considering @ Home is worth 8 pts.
Point Diff from each game respectively, 14.5, 16.5, 3.5, 16, 10.
So is the oddsmaker really making you lay the chalk with Buffalo record? Or do they really know something as don't? I really think the line is off and its a huge exaggeration due to the overall records.
Furthermore, with the common opponent theme. Buffalo is 2-3 ATS and 3-2 SU, losing as a -11.5 fav vs BG and losing to YT St as a -3.5 fav, Whereas, Toledo is 4-1 ATS (losing to BG by 6 pts as a 5 pt dog) and 1-4 SU, beating WMICH as a 9.5 dog.
Now here comes the stats for these 2 teams.
Toledo PPG 57 / PA 70.6 / FG% 39.9 / FGA% 44.9
Buffalo PPG 73.2 / PA 65.4
Now lets take a closer look at Toledo in their last five games. Where they've found there groove offensively and defensively. With a young team who needs to play day in and day out with confidence. Their definitely not lacking that knowing that there not losing by double digits as often and keeping their opponents under 42% FG.
PPG 61.2 / 67.2 / 40.2 FG% 40.2 / FGA% 41.2
I'll be on Toledo but for much? These stats support my play and if i lose, ill feel like a douche spending all this time writing this up. Normally I don't have writes up but this one definitely deserves one and I hope we can hurt the books.
PS. Shout to Spaz, I borrowed his/her format comparing the oppo spreads and etc.
0
gonna ride the +19.5 ...very small
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