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Posted: #151
Is this thread a joke?
 
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Posted: #152
Had someone ask my why I am playing so many plays.  Valid question.  Pretty simple really.

My goal on straight plays is to hit 57% to 60% over the long term.  If I handicap a game and feel as if I have a 57% or higher winning edge, its a play.  

Why would you not play smaller units and more games if you felt like you could win 57% to 60% long term?  

You spread the risk out over more games.  No one game dominates the fate of your bankroll.  

It takes discipline and patience and confidence in your handicapping.  But if you can do it and keep grinding away on it, it pays off.

Nothing complicated about it and it is made even simpler as I lean heavily on numerical analytics in my handicapping.  Of course, I look at many other factors but its probably weighted 60/40 toward the numbers.

5 unit plays are plays where I feel I have a greater than 75% expectation of winning.

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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by bumnurse:

Is this thread a joke?

Thanks for your question, Sir.  Why, yes...yes it is.

Please move along.  Nothing to see here.

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Posted: #154
Thursday March the 5th.  Lets start this puppy up!

Taking Niagara +4 for a 1 unit regular play.

Siena has owned the season series thus far going 2-0 with wins by 10 at home and by 4 points away in the series.  Recently though Siena has a 0-5 streak working while Niagara is on a 4-0 run and playing quite well.

The analytics say that these teams are very close.  Taking the generous points here and looking for double revenge as Niagara upsets the Saints today.

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Posted: #155
Keep it up man! Good luck to you.


 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by mikeru3:

Keep it up man! Good luck to you.



Best of luck to you today as well, Mike!

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Posted: #157
Spent quite a bit of time on this game.  Just not seeing the love for South Carolina playing out in this game.

Arkansas -1.5 for a 2 unit play.

The Hogs are coming off a 17 point loss at Kentucky which actually looked worse than that.  They have gone 10-2 in their last 12 with that loss to KY and a 1 point loss at Florida. In that run, they beat the Gamecocks by 20 on their home floor.

South Carolina has gone 4-8 in their last 12 with a 34 point loss at Kentucky as a common opponent comparison.

The only slight concern here is that the numbers are much closer than anyone would expect and this probably explains the line more than anything.  Arkansas still has advantages in overall efficiency.

I don't see an Arkansas letdown here.  With the short number, I will take them for an upgraded play.


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Posted: #158
Next play in the early games is ready...

Western Kentucky +5 (bought the .5) for a 1 unit regular play.

Need to make sure that Western Kentucky has their regular starters for this game before making the final bet.  4 or 5 of their guys have been ill with something (flu?) recently but are probable for the game.

If so, the numbers favor them here and the points are a plus.

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Posted: #159
Solid advantages statistically for UAB tonight across the board and a whopping 33 basis point efficiency advantage.  

UAB -6 for 2 units.

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Posted: #160
Adding Wisconsin -7 for a regular 1 unit play.

Huge statistical advantages across the board for Wisconsin but can only put a single unit on it as it will be close early with a late game cover as the Badgers grind it out late.

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Posted: #161
Adding UT Martin +2 for a regular 1 unit play

Wrong team is favored here according to the numbers I have.  Will take the home dog and points for a regular play.

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Posted: #162
Adding Middle Tennessee -4 for a 1 unit regular play.

Very solid efficiency and strength of schedule advantages here for the Blue Raiders and worth a regular play.

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Posted: #163
Adding UT Arlington +7 for a 1 unit regular play.

Efficiency stats on these two give a slight nod to Ga. Southern but strength of schedule goes to UTA in a big way.  I will take the generous points here and look for a close game.

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Posted: #164
Adding La Tech -18 for a 1 unit play.

Big number but the favorite in this matchup is 9-0 over the last 9. Southern Miss is 3-7 in their last 10 and particularly bad on the road going 0-4 in that same span.  

The numbers all point to La Tech in a big way as well with a whopping 55 basis point advantage in overall efficiency.

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Posted: #165
Adding UL Monroe +5 (bought .5) for a 1 unit regular play.

Georgia St. has a habit of not covering spreads going 4-12 in their last 16 road games while UL Monroe does a decent job going 15-9 overall this year.  Slight advantage to the Panthers in the numbers but I will take the home dog here for a unit.

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Posted: #166
Adding Arkansas Little Rock +8 (bought .5) for 1 unit.

These two squads always play each other tough with their last 2 games going to OT.  The Rajin Cajuns come in on a 4 game winning streak and I like them to cover the number here in a tight game.

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Posted: #167
Oops...wrote that a little wrong there...not the Rajin Cajins but the TROJANS will be covering the spread tonight.  They come in with a 3-1 record in their last 4 games.

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Posted: #168
Adding Northern Arizona -6.5 for a 1 unit regular play.

Braxton Tucker, one of Portland St.'s leading scorers, has a bum knee and is questionable for tonight.  The Lumberjacks took care of the Vikings by 13 on the road earlier this year and the numbers say tonight should be more of the same.

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Posted: #169
Adding South Alabama +5 for a 1 unit play.

Arkansas St. is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 overall.  Not a covering machine by any means.  The Jaguars are a respectable 14-9 ATS this season.  The numbers are quite close overall and I like the points here.

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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Adding Northern Arizona -6.5 for a 1 unit regular play.

Braxton Tucker, one of Portland St.'s leading scorers, has a bum knee and is questionable for tonight.  The Lumberjacks took care of the Vikings by 13 on the road earlier this year and the numbers say tonight should be more of the same.

system play smack..be crful
 
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Posted: #171
Adding Idaho +3 (bought .5) for a 1 unit regular play.

The Vandals are 15-8 this year ATS while the Wildcats are 1-8 ATS at home this year.  These two seem to play each other tough and the numbers are in Idaho's favor.  I will take the points in a close game.

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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by ryno23:

system play smack..be crful

Bah...too late, the deed is done.  Guess I just have to let the chips fall where they may.  More and more I have stayed away from many of the other threads just to try to keep my opinions my own.  It's been working so I am going to stick with it.

Thanks for the advisement though bro!

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Posted: #173
Adding Southern Utah +5 (bought .5) for a 1 unit regular play.

The Thunderbirds come into this game with a 4-2 record in the last 6 and they seem to be winning the games they used to lose earlier in the year.  They are 14-9 ATS overall and 5-3 ATS at home this year while the Hornets are 9-11 ATS overall and 4.5 ATS on the road.

I am liking the Thunderbirds to put up a fight tonight against one of the top Big Sky teams and keep it within the number.

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Posted: #174
Adding Davidson -3 for a 2 unit play.

Davidson is ..
13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
36-16 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
20-4 ATS overall this season.
8-2 ATS last 10.

Davidson comes into the game going 7-2 in their last 9 and on a 7 game winning streak. They are peaking at the right time of the year.

VCU comes into this game 4-5 in their last 9 losing 2 OT games during that stretch and losing their last 2 games at home vs Dayton and on the road vs Richmond.  They are not playing as well as they did early in the season.

My numbers are tight for this game but I am going with the big trends here and my gut says Davidson handles this easily tonight.

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Posted: #175
Arizona -19 for a 1 unit regular play.

Yep, huge number.  But all the numbers pointing to AZ are huge as well.  10-2 ATS last 12, 8-2 ATS in last 10 at home, etc, etc, etc.

Its worth a unit.

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