Good morning!
Last big Saturday of games for the year. Can't believe were closing in on the big dance.
SIMS/MODEL plays for the early early games are posted. I'm working on the rest of the games as we speak. PERSONAL PLAYS will be posted here if I have any. Which I will.
Good luck!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JvWccB-xl3WK_nZMUbMUIXwFO98io69YcP8re4gGEco/edit?usp=sharing
ALL SIMS are complete and posted to the sheet. I'm going to dive into PERSONAL plays next.
Good luck today!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JvWccB-xl3WK_nZMUbMUIXwFO98io69YcP8re4gGEco/edit?usp=sharing
PERSONAL PLAY #1: George Mason -7.5
Going to take George Mason at home here today. GMU coming it at 7-8 in conference play and UMASS coming in at 6-11. George Mason is much better than their record indicates. Aside from maybe 2 of the conference losses they were a play or two away from winning each game. UMASS comes in with the 344 ranked defense. With no motivation to play, one of the worst defenses in the country and you just lost your head coach I don't see them hanging around today. George Mason already beat UMASS by 10 earlier this year. I expect George Mason to get the cover.
PERSONAL PLAY #2: Idaho -2
I've enjoyed backing the Vandals this year. These are two bad teams but a small number at home I'll grab. Idaho lost to this team by two on the road earlier this season in the midst of their 3rd of 4 games in a 7 days. Idaho will be looking to surpass their highest total wins since their 22-8 season back in 2018. This would be a great accomplishment for a program that has really been struggling. I have Idaho as the better team and as a 3 point favorite. Give me the Vandals!
PERSONAL PLAY #3: Grand Canyon -13
It's always tough to take double digits in a conference game but I believe we are getting a bargain here. Grand Canyon 14-2 SU at home and 7-1 SU at home in conference games. They are taking on a not so good Dixie St team. Don't let their 13 wins fool you. 4 of those wins were vs non D1 schools and 1 win vs Chicago St.
Dixie St 4-5-1 ATS as a road dog losing by an average of 18 points a game. Grand Canyon 9-5 ATS as a home fav winning by an average of 15 points a game.
Dixie St beat Grand Canyon by 1 earlier this season. Grand Canyon played arguably their worst game of the season shooting 30%. Their top 3 scorers combined for 8-39 shooting and still found themselves in the game until the end. This is a good revenge spot for Grand Canyon on senior night. Grand Canyon also playing for a good seed in the WAC tournament. I'm expecting a much better shooting performance from Grand Canyon than the first time out vs Dixie. Take Grand Canyon -13
PERSONAL PLAYS #4: Nevada +4
Going to roll with the Wolf Pack at home here. I feel like this is a tough spot for the Aztecs. This will be their 3rd game in 5 days. Monday they played a tough game against Wyoming in the high altitude. Traveled to Fresno State on Thursday that ended in a double OT thriller. Now they travel to Reno to take on a Nevada team that has gotten much healthier. Nevada lost by 2 earlier this season to SDSU at SDSU without Sherfield and Washington. I think Nevada can hang around here and have a shot to win this outright.
PERSONAL PLAY #5: Colorado St -3.5
Boise State is your regular season MWC champions and have the #1 seed locked up in next weeks tournament. After celebrating an outright conference title how will they be able to refocus on a road trip to Fort Collins? I think Colorado State will want this one a little more. They have already proven they can beat Boise State as they secured a road win earlier this season at Boise 77-74. I'm going to take the home team that is 23-2 in home games over the last 3 seasons. David Roddy is the difference maker here. This is a game that could come down to the last few possessions and I want to side with Colorado St who is 12th in the nation in FTs and fade the team in Boise who is 350th.
Take the Rams!
PERSONAL PLAY #6: San Francisco -3
I really like the Dons at this number. They are so elite defensively. I expect them to wear down this BYU team who played last night. If San Francisco can force some turnovers and knock down some 3's I expect them to be in great position to get us this cover. These two met twice this season. Each team winning one.
First game between the two BYU won by 2. San Francisco shot 3-23 from 3. San Francisco is top50 in the country in % of points from 3s. They get nearly 40% of their points from 3s and yet they were able to be a bucket away from a win vs BYU on the road.
The 2nd matchup San Fran won pretty comfortably 73-59. They didn't shoot the 3 very well in this one either shooting 8-30. I expect the Dons defense to wear down the Cougars here. San Francisco has wins on natural court vs UAB, Towson, Davidson and a close loss to Loyola Chi. This team can cover 3.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
