Posted:
#1
YTD: 1-1, -.05 units
As I've mentioned before in my threads, my posting will be inconsistent until my semester at college ends and then I post more regularly. I don't post all the plays I make, just the ones I feel the most confident in. If you want to know all the plays I'm on, just PM me as I've started this season off hot again.
Today I'm on Ark/Houston over 146.5 for 1-unit
Not much to say about this, its the sucker bet of sucker bets and I'm just the sucker to take it. As I'm sure you know, Arkansas's new head coach is Mike Anderson, former Missouri head coach and assistant under Nolan Richardson in the 40 minutes of hell days. In his last two coaching stints at UAB and Missouri, the fastest his teams played where in his first year as the coach. He wants the players to buy into the system immediately and goes to great lengths to get them in the uptempo basketball mode.
Arkansas's first two games of the season netted 80 possessions (and total of 146 against 320 ranked in offense last year South Carolina Upstate) and 76 possessions and 159 points against Oakland (with Oakland shooting 25/72 for 34% from the floor).
Not much to say about this, its the sucker bet of sucker bets and I'm just the sucker to take it. As I'm sure you know, Arkansas's new head coach is Mike Anderson, former Missouri head coach and assistant under Nolan Richardson in the 40 minutes of hell days. In his last two coaching stints at UAB and Missouri, the fastest his teams played where in his first year as the coach. He wants the players to buy into the system immediately and goes to great lengths to get them in the uptempo basketball mode.
Arkansas's first two games of the season netted 80 possessions (and total of 146 against 320 ranked in offense last year South Carolina Upstate) and 76 possessions and 159 points against Oakland (with Oakland shooting 25/72 for 34% from the floor).
Houston,
on the other hand, has played two straight games with over 70
possessions themselves and has scored over 80 points in both. Houston's
second year coach James Dickey has been quoted in the off-season as
saying that one of his biggest mistakes last season was not playing a
faster tempo and even when they did play uptempo, he didn't have the right parts for that style but they do now. They also want to make their
style of basketball more exciting to draw more fans and get people
excited about the program again. This is also a very young team (every
player but one has joined the program since April 2010
or later) and there is only 1 player from the 2009-2010 NCAA tourney
team. They have had an infusion of highly touted freshman (four
three-star recruits, not bad at all for a program like Houston),
transfers, and junior college players. As is the case with young
players they want to get up and down the court and run. The top
transfer is Joseph Young who scored 27 a game in high school in Houston
two years ago and led his team to the 4A championship, he signed a letter of intent to
Providence but
decided he wanted to play at home and Providence didn't let him out of
his letter so he had to sit a year but he got to practice all season and
knows the offense and schemes very well.
Lastly, this game has been "hyped" all off-season. Its a matchup of old-school SWC rivals. They are playing the game in North Little Rock and Arkansas
has been using this game to pump up donors,
boosters, and try to increase membership in their "downtown tip off
club." Anderson was transported via limo to a banquet yesterday that
was overflowing with fans that were hyped about the season. Anderson will be looking to put on awesome performance tonight. Dickey, on
the other hand, is a Central Arkansas
native and has lots of connections in the area and its also an area
where they want to recruit so they will be putting their best foot
forward as well.
As
for some non-tempo stats as well (I know its early), Arkansas opponents
are averaging taking 70 shots a game from the field against their
pressure defense (despite the fact that Arkansas first opponent is a slow tempo team). Houston, coincidentally, has averaged over 60 shots per game themselves, even though both games were blowouts and the second half tempo slowed down a bit.
I also like the fact that never team has been living and dying by the 3-pt shot as both teams are averaging under 16 3-pt attempts per game (NCAA average is over 18) and both teams have gotten to the line a combined average of over 26 times per games (and all of there games have been blowouts so these free-throw stats aren't inflated by late game free throws). Both of these two teams take the ball to the basket and can shoot a high percentage from the floor. Also, both teams are averaging almost 10 steals per game (albeit against crappy competition) which leads to plenty of transition and easy baskets as well.
I also like the fact that never team has been living and dying by the 3-pt shot as both teams are averaging under 16 3-pt attempts per game (NCAA average is over 18) and both teams have gotten to the line a combined average of over 26 times per games (and all of there games have been blowouts so these free-throw stats aren't inflated by late game free throws). Both of these two teams take the ball to the basket and can shoot a high percentage from the floor. Also, both teams are averaging almost 10 steals per game (albeit against crappy competition) which leads to plenty of transition and easy baskets as well.
I
could go on and on but the point is that the books aren't fully
adjusted to both teams increased tempo and its also a situational spot
where I believe both teams will want to play a pleasing style of
exciting basketball. I can see this total getting to 150 and beyond
before tipoff. Also, I can see a lot of different scenarios where this game
goes over and can see only one or two ways it stays under. If we can consistently get our money down in situations like this one, I feel we will have a profitable season. Good luck
with whatever you decide.
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