Totals number way off

Now I realize that it takes a lot of nerve to play an under with these new hand-checking rules but the books are suddenly over-adjusting.  As Kenpom has pointed out, the increase in scoring is not as drastic as perception due partly to poorer field goal and free throw percentages.

Anyway, this early in the year, sometimes one game can skew linemakers.  Case in point, Stanford lost to BYU in a game where BOTH teams scored over 100 points.  So with snail Northwestern coming to town, the oddsmakers still hung a 157 total on this game.  All of the postgame quotes from Stanford players and coaches talk about how the emphasis will be on defense.  And Northwestern will slow the game down as much as they can.  So barring some late game foul parades or overtime, this game should finish comfortably under the number.

UNDER 157 (available now on BOL)

YTD 1-0

Stanford won 71-58 so I had a winner by 28 points.  I don't expect them to all be that easy so let's try to duplicate that.  When people think about Duke at home against a cupcake, they think a slaughter with a lot of scoring.  While I give Florida Atlantic zero chance of winning the game or even keeping it to single digits, one thing is for sure, they will try to slow the game down.  The Owl strength is a few big man transfers from Europe so running and gunning with Duke is a recipe for disaster.  Mike Jarvis is too smart for that.  Meanwhile, coming off a loss, Coach K will be more interested in working on certain things as opposed to having a track meet.  Now I can see them scoring 80 points notwithstanding.  But with a 30 point pointspread, that is still a total of 130 points if the Owls only net 50.  So even if you assume Duke gets to 85 and the Owls get to 60, that's 145.  And they hung a 161 total on this thing?  Really?  There will no end of game fouling or overtime to worry about as Duke will have the game in hand.  So even if this bet gets worrisome with several minutes to go, scoring should become a draught at the end of the game. 

Duke UNDER 161 (now at BOL)

YTD 1-0-1

Pushed the Duke game and was lucky to do so as the bet appeared dead until scoring petered out.  Another opportunity presents itself with Rutgers-Canisius.  My numbers say 146 but Vegas put a 160 on the game and that is simply way too high.  The RAC is a tough venue and Canisius won't have it's usual three point prowess.  Meanwhile, Rutgers hasn't been hitting on all cylinders either (only beating Yale 72-71).  I would be supremely confident in this bet if not for the possibility of a last minute foul fest if Rutgers were to have the lead by 6-10 points.  But regardless, with 14 points of value, I'm feeling comfortable going under here.

Rutgers UNDER 160 (now at BOL)

YTD 2-0-1

Rutgers won 66-51.  Again, very rarely will there be one that easy.  I don't get the sense anybody is tailing me but, in case somebody does care, I will be on the lookout for another one soon as bad totals numbers are the best way to win at College Hoops, IMO. 

Ok, I found one that looks very doable.  I'm not sure why I'm always on the unders lately but I'm guessing the books are overcompensating as bettors are likely blinding playing overs because of the increase in scoring.  Anyway, Manhattan and Illinois State both pride themselves on pressure defense.  While that can lead to turnovers and quick points, neither team plays helter skelter either.  In fact, Manhattan coach Steve Masiello prefers a snail offensive pace when the opportunity dictates and I think that is what he will try to do on the road. Their numbers are also skewed by a double OT game with Lasalle who loves to run.  Meanwhile, Illinois State just won a 68-64 game against Northwestern so no reason to shift gears if going slow worked out just fine.  They got toasted by VCU 96-58 earlier in the year and thus learned their lesson to have a more measured approach.  Long story short, barring an overtime moose or a super protracted foulfest in the last two minutes, there is plenty of cushion for this under.

Manhattan UNDER 152 1/2 (now at BOL)

Thoughts on an over adjustment

BYU UNDER 181?

WICHITA ST UNDER 155?

Total numbers have been frustratingly tight.  It's not like the good old days when the opening numbers would be 10-15 points off.  Anyway, one popped up today that is a solid 10 points off.  UC Irvine started the year as a run-and-gun team.  They opened the season with a 98-97 game with Fresno.  However, the team is 180 degrees different now with the coaching staff stressing defense in conference play.  They played a 46-44 snore fest with Long Beach State and their two games since then have been similarly slow.  Meanwhile, Cal Northridge struggles to score.  The only concern to this total at all is that Northridge's defense is below average to put it mildly.  Notwithstanding, barring OT or a last minute foulfest, this game should go comfortably under the number.  Figure 71-59.

Cal-Irvine/Cal Northridge Under 142 1/2 right now at Betonline.

Late fouling did make this a bit close landing on 138 but it was a fairly comfortable winner as it was 121 with two minutes to go.  It is why I try to pick a 10+ point favorite so that OT and late fouling is less of a risk if you want to play an under.  I will try to keep posting but I don't force plays and try to practice excruciating patience.

YTD 4-0-1