True Love is Beating the Books

On a day where lovers are sharing flowers, cards and chocolates, I thought I would share some insight with you.

NCAAB is arguably the most unpredictable sport out there, which combined with a ton of games can give odds makers a tough time and essentially gives us the players an advantage.

There a ton of great tools out there and I applaud Covers.com for providing a one-stop shop to find anything I am ever looking for.
But how do we know which tools are valuable and which will work over the long term?

The answer? I can't give away all my secrets but I will share the results of something I track on a regular basis.

The " trap game " or fixed match has always been a debate with bettors for years and whether or not you prescribe to it, you can make money on it.

If you use the covers-consensus tool which I feel represents a good, if not better than average betting " likeness " on a side of a game.

I track the results of what would happen if you FADE the Top % pick each day and the results are pretty alarming.

I will share with you the last 3 weeks results ( 22 games because there was an exact consensus on one day )

N.C State -2.5          (won by 2)      73.43%  
Ball state -2             (lost by 2)       69.67%
Syracuse -12.5        (lost by 22)      69.97%
W Illinois -3.5           (lost by 8)       69.28%
Illinois -4                  (lost by 3)       74.33%
Cornell -4.5              (lost by 7)       66.49%
UConn -5.5              (lost by 1)       74.05%
S Alabama -3.5        (lost by 6)       72.40%
N Arizona  -3.5        (won by 11)      62.70%
Creighton -5             (lost by 8)       71.25%
Memphis -6             (lost by 3)        70.39%
Idaho -4.5                (lost by 3)        69.86%
Fairfield -3               (won by 4)        66.53%
Uconn -3                 (won by 2)        70.07%
Utah -4                   (lost by 5)         70.06%
Vermont -11.5         (won by 25)       65.00%
Delaware St -4        (won by 8 )        66.53%
N Iowa -2                (lost by 8)         59.86%
Mich -2                   (won by 9)        68.65%
Florida Int -2           (lost by 4)         70.26%
Princeton -3            (won by 30)      69.55%
Memphis -2.5          (won by 6)       68.05%



Couple interesting numbers:   

15/22 correct
9/9 correct when 70%+

All these plays are dogs and 13/25 won outright.

The play tonight would be Kansas State +5.5.  79.10%

Great insight. 

hmm 9/9 when above 70% eh

I saw that too.... I like it

your definitly on to something the sharpys the vegas linesmakers are very accurate look at the spread to cover margin add 6 points to your analisi  how this would increase the win percentage    intresting now your swimming good thread brother keep up the excellent work it will pay nice dividens

let's hope tonight is no exception

GL

I would like you to come to the Serious Streak Survivor Thread and share more insights that you have. I have taken the liberty of posting this great article on our thread for our members to see and of course we have given you credit. Please drop in anytime and share with us your insights. Our goal is simple to win the dam money with a W21 and then go for the big bucks $100K. We look forward to seeing you there.

  Thanks a lot man. Good luck winning the big one, but it's really tough. Even if you found a strategy that worked 60% of the time, the odds of hitting 25 straight are retardedly small.

Find things that work and make 25K, small amounts at a time. Sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint.

Good luck.

This theory has already been beaten to death over the past 3 decades and has shown no profitable angles. 3 weeks is too small of sample size to conclude that your sample properly represents the population. I've looked at this angle dozens of times and its a waste of time. Not trying to be rude but I've done my research and you should analyze every game on a case by case basis.

I completely agree that every game has to be reviewed on a case by case basis. Of these 22 plays, I personally only played on on 8 of them because the others did not fit my criteria. I find it interesting that the 70%+ games seem to be hitting a good clip. I am going to back 1 year and see where we end up.

Make it 10/10.

K State putting it on Kansas. Public Blood Bath.

whats the play for tomorrow

Won't know until about an hour before game time. Look for it around 6 ET.

Thanks PremierEdge. Great work, and you are correct. Sports betting is a marathon. Gotta grind it out

Oddly enough (or maybe not), here were the top 3 from tonight on a limited card

I have run top 3 numbers and they aren't nearly as profitable, but the ML on these dogs.... WOW

The play today looks like it's going to be Seton Hall +3.

However it does not fit my criteria so it's a No Play for me.

There are 5 Parameters I use and this breaks 2 of them.

I never bet on a team that has under .500 mark.

I never bet against Good-Great teams coming off of 2 or more straight losses.

I personally think Nova rolls them tonight.

Never bet against a team coming off a SU home loss and playing at home.

Never lay double digits. ( In combination with teams .500 or above, it's never smart to lay double digits. They always find ways to stay in games )

Never bet on a team with 3 or more ATS Wins and never bet against a team with 3 or more ATS losses.

Thank you for sharing.....this all makes alot of sense.  I just wish I had the patience to stick to all of these parameters all the time.

Great info. Thanks for your great work

vegasinsider is much more accurate than covers for %s IMHO

It's a lot tougher to do than people think.

Take Marquette ML, VCu -1 and Ottawa Senators in NHL tonight and you will be a very happy person.