::Tuesday:: 11/26 (73-77-1 YTD)

Came out of the gates hotter than hell, and then quickly went into an ice bath.  6-6 yesterday.

Detroit +9.5

Tulsa isn't playing great basketball at the moment, losing three straight, the last one by 30+ to Loyola Chicago.  Their defense has been the issue, as they rank 308th in defensive effective FG%.  The probably shouldn't be favored over anyone by nearly double digits with defense like that.  Mercy also hits the offensive glass at the 46th best clip according to Kenpom, and Tulsa struggles to finish defensive possessions.  Lastly, the Titans are 42nd in 3pt% on offense, and Tulsa comes in at 306th in 3pt% defense.  This just feels like too many points, in a game Detroit could potentially win.

Eastern Kentucky/Southern Illinois Over 148.5

Just like yesterday, I'm banking on SIU to get their fair share on offense, but its their lack of defense that makes any number under 150 look attractive.  EKU traditionally plays at a break neck pace, but their schedule hasn't really allowed them to do so thus far, but SIU will be happy to play at a pace that is favorable for both offenses. The pace should be there, just need some shots to fall. 

San Diego St +4

Creighton is coming off a loss at home to rival Nebraska in which the offense looked broken.  Now they go to Vegas and won't have their starting point guard in Steven Ashworth, and that doesn't bode well against one of the stingiest defenses in the land. If the Aztecs can limit Kalkbrenner, there is no reason they can't win this game outright.  

Louisiana Tech -6

This line appears to be a little short, and that is concerning, but Richmond isn't good.  They have one DI win on the year, and that is over Maine who isn't in the top 200 Kenpom rankings.  They have no offense to speak of, and don't play good enough defense to keep them in games.  La Tech on the other hand is top 100 in nearly every defensive metric that matters on Kenpom, and they get to the foul line at a great rate, and then make their free throws. Richmond gives up nearly 30% of their points from the charity stripe, so that is the difference in this one for me.

Colorado +15

Back to the Tad Boyle well.  They can't shoot any worse than they did yesterday vs Sparty, where they went 4-19 from 3.  Despite that showing, they are still top 70 in 3pt%, so they should have a bounce back shooting day.  It sucks that UCONN is on the other side, but they just played their first true basketball game and it was FAST and went to OT.  I can't be sure they are in good enough shape to close out the Buffs in 40 mins.  Colorado shoots the ball better, and Huskies are a little sluggish, letting Colorado stay within a dozen.

Oregon +3

Gotta run here, but Oregon should get whatever they want in the paint, and I'm not so sure AM offense can keep up with the Ducks.  Neutral floor in Vegas, I love Dana Altman in an underdog spot.

I'll be back home before the second tip in Maui.  GL to all

TH 

@Fuse

@D-Town

STLTH......

GL 

good luck STL 

bol. look at hou.

Michigan St -2

This may seem like a stretch, and it is very much so one, but I'm rolling with it.  Using the NCAA Tournament as my source, in the second game of a weekend (so either Sat/Sun or the first two weekends of the tournament) Izzo is 23-6.  He knows how to get his team prepared on a very short notice, and outcoaches the opposition many times.  Sparty is not gonna be afraid of the physicality of Memphis, and should be able to get the game played at a slower pace than the Tigers would prefer.  Michigan St is a deep team, so they can continuously throw bodies out there.  Multiple times yesterday, they did complete 5 player substitutions.  Give me the better coached, more rested team.

Manhattan/Virginia Under 128

Look.  Virginias offense is f*cking awful. No one wants to shoot the ball. The only player you have to guard on their team is Issac McNeely.  Everyone else is uncapable of beating you. Buuutttttttt.....they still defend their dicks off.  And defense travels my friends.  Manhattans offense has been very poor as well, so I'm thinking a 60-47 kinda game.

More coming but Maui gonna tip in 15 or so

Houston -4

Cause EddyW told me so.  And as mentioned above, defense travels.  No one defends like Houston.  No one shoots the 3 as well as them either.  High tide. 

UTEP -7.5

UTEPs defense leads the country in defensive turnover%.  Now, its not against the greatest competition thus far, but Long Beach is far from being a world beater of any sort.  The Beach are 330th in offensive turnover%, so the easy buckets in transition should be aplenty.  But if the Miners have to run half court offense, that isn't so scary, as they rank 42nd in 3pt%.  The only way this game stays close, is if LBSU can break pressure and get in the half court on a consistent basis.  I'm betting my money that they won't be able to do that.

Notre Dame/Rutgers Over 145.5

UNC/Auburn Over 167.5

Ran out of time.  GL everyone and enjoy the hoops.

lol UVA/Manhattan are pacing about 190 six mins in