Tuesday CBB Selections 42-21 (67%)

CBB Season Record 42-21-1  (67.0%)

#1. Tenn -2 over Arkansas

Arkansas (11-2) benefits from a very soft schedule and the fact that are (11-2) and not ranked in the Top 25 confirms that.  They SOS ranks # 71.  They have only played one true road game and that was at unranked Minnesota where they lost by 14 points (71-85).

The only ranked team that Arkansas has played this year was at home against #24 ranked Florida a game that they lost by 9 points (72-81). 

I don’t doubt that Arkansas will not be trying after losing their SEC opener at home to Florida, but I am not sure they have the talent to go on the road and beat Tennessee.

Tenn is (8-5), but they have played one of the tougher schedules in the country with their SOS ranked at # 27.  The following are who the Vols have lost to:

Lost at #11 ranked Wisconsin by 12 (62-74)

Lost at #14 ranked North Carolina by 2 (71-73)

Lost to #4 ranked (14-0) Gonzaga by 76-96

Lost at #15 ranked Oregon by 4 in OT (65-69)

There is no question that Tenn has played a very tough schedule and their (8-5) record is nothing to be ashamed of.

I am also impressed that the Tenn Vols just went on the road in their last game and won by 10 points (73-63) at Texas AM (8-4), which is a difficult place to play and win.

Other trends that favor Tenn

-Arkansas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 SEC games

-Tenn is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall

-The Home Team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings

Arkansas won both meetings last year and I think this well tested and talented Tenn team has the ability and motivation to return the favor this year.  I am on this Vols team that has played 4 Top 15 ranked teams to get the win cover the -2 at home.

BOL!

#2. Kent -6 over Ball State

This is one of those games where one team just seems to OWN the other team.

Kent (8-5) and 5-1 at home just  owns Ball State (9-4) having won the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

What’s even more impressive is that in this 10 game win streak they are also 9-1 ATS (90% cover rate).

In these last 10 straight wins vs. Ball State the margin of victory by Kent has been 8, 5, 11, 12, 14, 21, 11, 13, 34 and 7 points.  In only 1 of these 10 games would Kent not have covered the -6 point spread.

In the 5 victories at home, Kent has won by an average of 16.6 points.

I also like the fact that Kent in their last game just won at Texas by 5 points (63-58).  Texas has some big and talented athletes, so they will be playing Ball State with a lot of confidence and this will be a big step down in competition.

Other trends supporting Kent:

-Ball State is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games on Tue.

-Ball State is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Kent

-Ball State is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

In my many years of wagering on basketball, I have found when you see a trend this strong you have to grab it.  I am taking Kent tonight to continue their dominance of Ball State.

BOL!

Thanks!....a long story on the name change, but got banned because I had this old account and it was the only way I could keep posting.

Dallas/Ft. Worth area, but grew up in KY.  I am BAW.  Kept getting banned for have multiple accounts and they told me about this one I set up 2 years ago and did not use, so had to start using it or stay banned.  Silly rule when you are not doing anything wrong, but I am good with it and hopefully don't get banned again.  BOL!!!

#3.  KY and Texas AM OVER 150

This total looks suspiciously low???  I was going to stay away, but am now going to make it a play.

KY is averaging 94.9 points per game at home and I think they will be able to control the pace in this game, especially if they jump out to a lead.  Only concern would be if Tex AM gets an early lead.

Also, KY is allowing an average of 71 points per game at home, so that puts us in right at 165.

In their last 5 games, KY has averaged 91.0 points per game and Tex AM has averaged 74.0 points per game, which also puts us in right at 165 points.

In KY's last 10 games they have only scored less than 92 points in two games.  One was against one of the toughest defensed in the country @ Louisville when they only scored 70 and the other game was 87 points against Valpo.

Tex AM has scored 80 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games.

Trends that point to OVER:

- Over is 7-2 in KY's last 9 games

- Over is 6-0 in KY's last 6 games vs. the SEC

- Over is 5-1 in KY's last 6 homes games

- Over is 4-1 in KY's last 5 games of a favorite of -13 or more

- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between KY and Tex AM

Far too many reasons to expect at least 150 points in this game to not make a move on the OVER.  Again, this total looks low to me.

BOL!!!

I opened an account in DEC 2014 and got married in FEB 2014 and was way too busy to use it.  Two years later how many people remember they had an account and what the name or PW was?  Covers made me aware of this Account and said that was why I had been banned. Nobody needs two accounts unless they are trying to troll or cause problems.  Hope that explains it.

2-1......will take that any day.

100-58 Over was a WINNER.

I learned a lesson.  Do not be against a team that lost their conference opener.  There is too much incentive to win the next game.  Tenn should have been a no play against Arkansas.