Tuesday Hoops

ODU’s offense has been abysmal to this point, but they get to face a bad defense for the first time in a matter of weeks in East Carolina before opening up conference play on Saturday. East Carolina really has yet to face anyone that even cares about slowing the pace and playing defense, so this will the first test for an offense that has trouble scoring at times. I clearly like ODU here on paper, but they had Thanksgiving off, and actually had Monday off too b/c a majority of the team has the flu. This ODU team is a completely different squad than in years past, and I’m not sure it’s a product of talent or they system just not working thus far. They have been one of the best rebounding teams in the nation the past few years, especially on the offensive side of things, and this year has been the complete opposite. They have failed on the offensive glass, thus those high percentage shots they get from misses are not going in. Combine that with the fact that they really don’t have all of that great of outside shooters, and the offensive rebounding stat is magnified. This team needs extra opportunities to score, and when they aren’t getting them, they will struggle. I’m not sure if they need practice time to correct those issues, or if it is a matter of effort, but with the state of this team for the past week, I’m not sure you will get their best shot tonight at correcting those mistakes.  

As is the case with Georgia and Colorado last night, this presents another similar matchup. Northwestern’s potent offense and little defense going into Georgia Tech’s putrid offense and stellar defense. This game will be played at Phillips Arena, while the home court undergoes renovations, so while it’s not a true home court, it technically is for this year. I will be backing Georgia Tech here with the revenge angle. Last year, they went to Northwestern and got waxed to the tune of a 91-71 final score and allowed Northwestern to shoot an odd 65% from the field. There was a bit of a silver lining in that game. Prior to traveling to Northwestern, they were on a three game roady and dropped the second of that game in the title match of the Legends classic with very little preparation with the trip to Northwestern. This year is a totally different story. Out goes Paul Hewitt, in steps Brian Gregory, who ran a similar style offense at Dayton, and who defended against a few similar styles in the A-10. Along with that, Gregory coached at Northwestern (before Carmody), and spent eight years as an assistant for Michigan State, so he knows the offense, and knows how to beat it. Don’t get me wrong, Northwestern’s offense is good. In fact, it’s better than good, but the reason they hold the ball on offense and use the Princeton style is because they are often mis-matched defensively and often out athleticized on that end of the court if that is even a word. To put it simply, and I alluded to this last year, this meeting last year was circled by Northwestern before the season started as a statement game. The non-conference schedule was so pathetic that they circled one game and made it their audition for the NCAA tournament. And they responded well as I have noted with the 65% shooting percentage and the big win. But now, the shoe is on the other foot. They go on the road here in a true road setting for the first time, and they already have that big tourney win to their credit, and last year’s victory in the back of their mind. Georgia Tech should come in with the revenge mindset, and Gregory’s had the better part of a week to prepare for the Princeton offense, something he clearly knows about having faced it many times previously. This spot sets up for Georgia Tech awfully nice.

I think the value is on Maryland here, but eh, who knows. Actually shocked Illinois is favored here, but I guess Maryland’s offense has looked pretty bad as well. Illinois will be solid all year defensively if they can keep Leonard on the court, so maybe that’s where oddsmakers are going with this one. I’m not high on either of these teams for the year, and won’t invest in any Illinois games, but just the fact that they’re hitting the road for the first time with a weird offense and offense that will go minute after minute without scoring sort of made me want to take a look at Maryland, but I will skip right along.

This game here is a perfect example of flipping a coin. Which LSU offense is going to show up? What will James Dickey do with Houston tonight? Two coaches who flip the script and never know what you’re going to get. And just a few reasons I haven’t taken a stab at either of these teams in previous years...

yah +1, -2, not a big difference.

There isn't only one book in the world. If you're serious about betting, rule nr 1 is to have a decent amount of books to bet on.

Defense should help them with the cover, but I'm not sure I could lay the chalk in what should be a really, low scoring game with a team that is struggling offensively. Probably the only side I could go with, but I hate laying chalk, let along double-digit chalk.

GL