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Posts: 61

wvu06

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 238

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 4:10 PM ET #26

What's your take on UALR? That's one that I know very little about. Thanks in advance and best of luck. I always enjoy reading your stuff.

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sportsbetter1

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 318

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 4:18 PM ET #27

BOL Neil

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Liquorinfront

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 306

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 4:25 PM ET #28

Neil - Im liking UNI in this spot even though they played yesterday a D3 team. Their leader on their team, Koch sat out yesterday with the "flu". I think he's 100% tonight and ready. Plus all the starters played 19mins or less yesterday. No look aheads on either side. Panthers have a their conference opener 9 days later. The Panthers have the size to match up, They are a better perimeter team, free throw %, and the Bobcats have avg around 22 fouls a game their last 5 games, where UNI is at 16. A high foul total to me makes me believe they are having problems in the transition game or plain and simple they cant play solid half court defense. I like UNI at home here -5. Ohio is a solid team and I think they have the Panthers attention here. I think a win here by UNI and they should be considered a top 25 team. Like the under 131, too....your take?

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JEG53

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 26433

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 4:26 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by sportsanalyst:

Thanks for the analysis. U make good points as usual. I am going to stay away from Idaho now and this game as a whole. Just going to learn from the game.

He saved me money on that TCU game for sure,I thought it was a good spot for them,he said NOT,they got crushed,

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capskip

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 33526

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 5:09 PM ET #30

Bol tonight nropp....

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trajan21

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 79

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 5:13 PM ET #31

Nebraska is without Jorge Diaz and Dylan Talley again tonight and they struggled with one of the worst teams in Alcorn St. on Saturday.
Bo Spencer played awful but Central Michigan is tempting even as a Husker fan.

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 5:23 PM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by wvu06:

What's your take on UALR? That's one that I know very little about. Thanks in advance and best of luck. I always enjoy reading your stuff.

I'm going to need quite a few things to go right for this ML to hit, but the points definitely hold value. Illinois State is just playing over their heads right now. They are coming out of a game where multiple records were set, and their defense held Norfolk state to the lowest shooting percentage in the history of the program at 21%. If that doesn't scream letdown, I don't know what does. Getting back to playing over their heads, the team identity right now is just a total 180 from what Jankovich really wants to do and it's going to catch up with them at some point. As it stands, 45% of their shot attempts are coming from beyond the arc. They've attempted a whopping 218 three's in 10 games. In looking deeper, around 90 of those have been attempted by the bigs in the modified (really modified) Princeton offense. Looking deeper though, the numbers are a bit skewed. Just recently they have started attempting quite a bit more as the past four games have clearly gone over their average attempts, and that is a bit of a cause of concern I would think. When you start to rely on it, you become complacent, and this offense as slow as it operates, those two things don't really work together. Against the worst defense in the country in Chicago State, they got up 38 shots from beyond the arc. That tells me one thing, they're settling. Taking an even deeper look, they're averaging this many attempts for two reasons. One, they're getting big leads and the only people coming off the bench are shooters. And two, they've played some competition where they've been forced to use the three-ball to get back in the game. Looking at their schedule, not a single victory shocks me. They have beaten some really bad teams. Yes, Morehead State is a big name but they're a totally different team than last year. The Rutgers victory is probably their biggest victory to date, but Rutgers has yet to win a game against a BCS foe. I just see value in fading ISU in this spot. The most glaring loss is the home loss to NC Wilmington, who brings pretty much the same makeup as Arkansas LR brings into this matchup. They're probably a little more talented from an offensive standpoint under Buzz, but makeup wise they're the same. Good quality PG's, and bigs who can operate away from the bucket. From the Arkansas LR standpoint, if they're going to have any chance they're going to have to do it with defense. The offense has flat out sucked and from breaking down the game for the better course of the past few days, I can say with confidence that the right five aren't starting the game for Shields, so I don't agree with that, but I like what he has done lately (he's gotten some Seniors into the mix from a minute perspective). They aren't in all that great of a spot here on the second game of a roady with a conference game on deck (more than a week away), but it is what it is. They had a big lead at Lousiana Tech and fumbled it away, pretty much the story of their season. They haven't finished a game, although they've had chances, so that's why the big spread here. From a defensive standpoint, they're going to allow ISU to continue to pop three after three, but they aren't going to allow the bigs to shoot out there. They have the guys to stick with the bigs on the perimeter, so from that standpoint, if the ISU guards can beat me, then so be it. It doesn't really make sense from a normal person's vantagepoint, in terms of "wow Arkansas LR doesn't guard the three-point line and they're going against a team who shoots three's almost as much as anyone in the country", but that's exactly what I want. I want the complacency to set in, because honestly, this team is not a perimeter oriented offense, and it's going to bite them in the ass at some point. I'm hoping it's tonight, b/c it's the last time they'll be favored by double digits the rest of the year. Can they cover this? Absolutely. As I noted, Arkansas LR could completely tank with what's transpired the last week, but I'll gladly take a chance at 10/1.

GL

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Quote Originally Posted by wvu06:

What's your take on UALR? That's one that I know very little about. Thanks in advance and best of luck. I always enjoy reading your stuff.

I'm going to need quite a few things to go right for this ML to hit, but the points definitely hold value. Illinois State is just playing over their heads right now. They are coming out of a game where multiple records were set, and their defense held Norfolk state to the lowest shooting percentage in the history of the program at 21%. If that doesn't scream letdown, I don't know what does. Getting back to playing over their heads, the team identity right now is just a total 180 from what Jankovich really wants to do and it's going to catch up with them at some point. As it stands, 45% of their shot attempts are coming from beyond the arc. They've attempted a whopping 218 three's in 10 games. In looking deeper, around 90 of those have been attempted by the bigs in the modified (really modified) Princeton offense. Looking deeper though, the numbers are a bit skewed. Just recently they have started attempting quite a bit more as the past four games have clearly gone over their average attempts, and that is a bit of a cause of concern I would think. When you start to rely on it, you become complacent, and this offense as slow as it operates, those two things don't really work together. Against the worst defense in the country in Chicago State, they got up 38 shots from beyond the arc. That tells me one thing, they're settling. Taking an even deeper look, they're averaging this many attempts for two reasons. One, they're getting big leads and the only people coming off the bench are shooters. And two, they've played some competition where they've been forced to use the three-ball to get back in the game. Looking at their schedule, not a single victory shocks me. They have beaten some really bad teams. Yes, Morehead State is a big name but they're a totally different team than last year. The Rutgers victory is probably their biggest victory to date, but Rutgers has yet to win a game against a BCS foe. I just see value in fading ISU in this spot. The most glaring loss is the home loss to NC Wilmington, who brings pretty much the same makeup as Arkansas LR brings into this matchup. They're probably a little more talented from an offensive standpoint under Buzz, but makeup wise they're the same. Good quality PG's, and bigs who can operate away from the bucket. From the Arkansas LR standpoint, if they're going to have any chance they're going to have to do it with defense. The offense has flat out sucked and from breaking down the game for the better course of the past few days, I can say with confidence that the right five aren't starting the game for Shields, so I don't agree with that, but I like what he has done lately (he's gotten some Seniors into the mix from a minute perspective). They aren't in all that great of a spot here on the second game of a roady with a conference game on deck (more than a week away), but it is what it is. They had a big lead at Lousiana Tech and fumbled it away, pretty much the story of their season. They haven't finished a game, although they've had chances, so that's why the big spread here. From a defensive standpoint, they're going to allow ISU to continue to pop three after three, but they aren't going to allow the bigs to shoot out there. They have the guys to stick with the bigs on the perimeter, so from that standpoint, if the ISU guards can beat me, then so be it. It doesn't really make sense from a normal person's vantagepoint, in terms of "wow Arkansas LR doesn't guard the three-point line and they're going against a team who shoots three's almost as much as anyone in the country", but that's exactly what I want. I want the complacency to set in, because honestly, this team is not a perimeter oriented offense, and it's going to bite them in the ass at some point. I'm hoping it's tonight, b/c it's the last time they'll be favored by double digits the rest of the year. Can they cover this? Absolutely. As I noted, Arkansas LR could completely tank with what's transpired the last week, but I'll gladly take a chance at 10/1.

GL

nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 5:25 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by Liquorinfront:

Neil - Im liking UNI in this spot even though they played yesterday a D3 team. Their leader on their team, Koch sat out yesterday with the "flu". I think he's 100% tonight and ready. Plus all the starters played 19mins or less yesterday. No look aheads on either side. Panthers have a their conference opener 9 days later. The Panthers have the size to match up, They are a better perimeter team, free throw %, and the Bobcats have avg around 22 fouls a game their last 5 games, where UNI is at 16. A high foul total to me makes me believe they are having problems in the transition game or plain and simple they cant play solid half court defense. I like UNI at home here -5. Ohio is a solid team and I think they have the Panthers attention here. I think a win here by UNI and they should be considered a top 25 team. Like the under 131, too....your take?

Yah, I sort of feel the same way. Not necessarily about the top 25 assertion, but this defensive style should cause Ohio fits.

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 5:25 PM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by trajan21:

Nebraska is without Jorge Diaz and Dylan Talley again tonight and they struggled with one of the worst teams in Alcorn St. on Saturday.
Bo Spencer played awful but Central Michigan is tempting even as a Husker fan.

I looked long and hard at this one. Feeling the same way as you.

GL

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AgainstDaConsen

MVP

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 16713

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 6:06 PM ET #35

No love for College of Charleston...

GL on your card

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cheeersM8

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 358

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 6:40 PM ET #36

My book has Southern Utah total at 152.5 is that too high?

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Oscarxena

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 1575

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 6:44 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by cheeersM8:

My book has Southern Utah total at 152.5 is that too high?

Only if the game lands 152!

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cheeersM8

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 358

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 6:48 PM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by Oscarxena:

Only if the game lands 152!

Well I meant would nropp still consider it a 3* play

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Bigten51

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 2929

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 6:58 PM ET #39

Today!

3* Southern Utah/Troy Over 150.5

2* Arkansas LR +14

2* Southern Utah +6....

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:00 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

No love for College of Charleston...

GL on your card

None. Have a hunch they get shut down.

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:01 PM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by cheeersM8:

My book has Southern Utah total at 152.5 is that too high?

Not with these defenses. But, you have lost value. Your call.

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gregdabunny

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 41

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:02 PM ET #42

KENT STATE -11?

I'm an SPC student...they are bad...especially on the road

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1919

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 1514

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:13 PM ET #43

I feel like tonight is your night finally nropp11

Your credibility is on the line and you answer the challenge.

silence your critics

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1919

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 1514

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:16 PM ET #44

12-2 Illinois St.

at the first TV timeout

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Andy_Dufresne

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 600

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:18 PM ET #45

17-4 at the second TV timeout... Hey theyre still covering!

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1919

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 1514

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:19 PM ET #46

holy shit

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:19 PM ET #47

Quote Originally Posted by 1919:

12-2 Illinois St.

at the first TV timeout

ISU on pace to make eighty-seven 3's.

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1919

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 1514

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:19 PM ET #48

1*

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:20 PM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by gregdabunny:

KENT STATE -11?

I'm an SPC student...they are bad...especially on the road

Agree.

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JEG53

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 26433

Posted: Dec. 20, 2011 - 7:21 PM ET #50

So is Purdue,they didnt miss anything in that FH,that under in trouble.

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