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#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 28-21, +15.50
January Leans: 26-21
Michigan State at Michigan
Michigan State’s second straight roady against the 1-3-1 zone if Beilein chooses to use it (and why shouldn’t he) after they lost against it just a few days ago at Northwestern. They shot 46% from the field and 50% from the arc, so it’s not like they shot all that bad. The reason they lost at Northwestern was turnovers at key times in the game preventing the normal runouts, which led to easy Northwestern buckets. I think this is the type of game where you can turn it on with five minutes to play and it’s just a matter of capping who wins the last five minutes. Michigan plays very well at home, they rarely blow anybody out, and they rarely get blown out with the style they employ so it’s just a matter of who takes care of the basketball late. Michigan State has some nice revenge, but what’s hurting Michigan this year is just settling for jump shots. They’re at the bottom of college basketball in getting to the free throw line, and it’s tough to win at the end of close ballgames unless you’re aggressive if you’re shots aren’t falling. The Michigan State and Michigan series hasn’t gone over 64 possessions in a single meeting with Beilein involved. I take that back, it went to 67 possessions his first year, but he was a much faster tempo team in his first year b/c he wasn’t using his recruits. I have no interest in this game, but using the theory that MSU will be the aggressor, they get to the bucket and draw a foul late and win on a free throw, so taking a stab: Michigan State 60, Michigan 59
Georgetown at Depaul
In five Big East games, Depaul has given up at least 80 in four of them, including 81 to a Pitt team that is struggling offensively, and most recently gave up 76 to a Louisville team that is struggling offensively. Want to see how they’re doing it? Watch this defensive display otherwise known as “streetball” here. They just have no effort to defend guards to that look to penetrate and that’s what Georgetown gets here. If you notice in the video all the dunks and layups caused off of penetration, Georgetown should have the opportunity to get plenty of those tonight, but they’ll also look to kick out for the three-ball as well, and they can shoot it well. Now, Depaul’s at home, so I might get a bit of a better effort here, but how good does the court storming and the Pitt win look now? It really doesn’t. Georgetown has no look ahead angle really, but they are on the second straight road game after winning the first rather easily. If I haven’t brought up enough of how bad this Depaul defense is, then I’ll bring up one more thing. In Big East play, they’re giving up an average of 43 points per half. I don’t care how fast you play, even if you have an elite offense, giving up 43 points a half is certainly alarming. What’s even more disturbing is that in these Big East games, they’ve only faced one of the better Big East offenses (Syracuse). They get one of the most efficient tonight. I have no interest backing the road chalk here, but I think it’s a bit light. Taking a stab: Georgetown 88, Depaul 73
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