Posted:
#26
Will you please talk about James Madison. After a very poor showing against Towson why a cover against Georgia St.?
Thanks
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Tuesday Hoops
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by TexasTman:
What do you make of Texas as well as Texas A&M tonight? Both seem like superior teams but i have hated laying the chalk lately and since the number seems low it appears to offer some value.
What are your thoughts?
Nice spot for Texas, but they're going to give up a ton of "extra" opportunites to Kruger's squad. Only road victory in the conference is by 2 points.
Always a good idea to fade Texas Tech, but A&M has a big-in on Saturday and the most they've scored on the road in the conference has been 53. Ick.
GL
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Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by MitchC:
Any thoughts on the total of Drexel v Wm and Mary tonight? Thanks in advance.
Any thoughts on the total of Drexel v Wm and Mary tonight? Thanks in advance.
Drexel's offense has been good, really good as of late, and a ton better than what I projected them to be. Totals involving William & Mary are tough to guage. If they're making the insane amount of three's they shoot, she's gonna go over. Drexel defends it awfully well, but they play a type of defense that allows teams to at least get some attempts up there. Tough teams to gauge.
GL
0
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:
What do ya think about Ohio St under tonight??
What do ya think about Ohio St under tonight??
Minnesota wants to slow it down and make it a half court game, but the problem is when they do that, I have no idea how their guards are going to score. Under should be the right side with value, just scared of this game getting out of hand and Ohio State putting up one of those crooked #'s.
Tubby hasn't been a +8 pup at Minnesota. Most he's been dogged at home is 4.5 last year against Ohio State. Think the line might be up there for a reason.
GL
0
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by ameame:
Will you please talk about James Madison. After a very poor showing against Towson why a cover against Georgia St.?
Thanks
Just not a fan of Georgia State's offensive abilities coupled with the fact that they're hitting the road after dropping a close one in OT.
James Madison has talent, just haven't put it all together. Maybe that win over Towson gives them a little confidence?
Not sure. Part of the reason I only leaned that way, but it's more of a fade on Georgia State coming back down to earth prior to the conference tournament. Should see some losses next few weeks.
GL
0
Posted:
#34
Neil,
Im with you on Wisky tonight however i think Brown being out (is this confirmed) has alot more to do with my motivation than it appears it does to you. I am not worried about the offense whatsoever but without him slashing and causing havoc at the defensive end (grady is not brown imo) opens alot of doors for wisky to control the tempo for the entire game and not be pushed into bad shots from the guards. I have a value of 2 pts on Brown so this would be -2 vs a pk and then add in the revenge angle and home court, im thinking wisky could be -3.5-4 in this game. PICK is pure VALUE imo.
gl to all
Im with you on Wisky tonight however i think Brown being out (is this confirmed) has alot more to do with my motivation than it appears it does to you. I am not worried about the offense whatsoever but without him slashing and causing havoc at the defensive end (grady is not brown imo) opens alot of doors for wisky to control the tempo for the entire game and not be pushed into bad shots from the guards. I have a value of 2 pts on Brown so this would be -2 vs a pk and then add in the revenge angle and home court, im thinking wisky could be -3.5-4 in this game. PICK is pure VALUE imo.
gl to all
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 23-19, +13.90
February Leans: 23-22
Just not sure how Cleveland State responds here. All the build-up to the revenge match-up with Valpo at home, and they tanked. Then, two days later, dropped their even bigger match-up with rival Butler. Now, they hit the road against one of the toughest defenses in the conference and welcome in a Drexel team that's won 19 of their last 20 games for Busted Bracket Saturday. Pretty nice revenge game for Wisconsin MKE, here as the 83 that Cleveland State posted in the first meeting was their highest point total in conference play and also happened to be the highest point total MKE's given up all year as well. Don't really have faith in either one of these offenses with recent results, so simply going with revenge here. Wisconsin MKE's only two home contests they've dropped in the Horizon came to Valpo and Youngstown State, who also happen to be the two of the tops in the league this year. I can't put CSU in that category. If you remember anything about my Cleveland State info from last year, a large part of the defensive analysis came down to D'Aundray Brown and how badly he was missed. He's got a groin injury, so this defense takes a major hit (and a big part of why they've sucked the last few games). His slashing offense also becomes less of a focal point and MKE can concentrate on what they do so well and that is guarding the perimeter. If he's not creating turnovers, the offense sputters in the half court, and they're a much, much, much easier team to score on (he is probably my hands down, most important defensive player to any team in the country at the guard spot - Briante doesn't get enough minutes for that spot, but it's close). I would have played this even if he was healthy, but this is just an added bonus here.
5* Wisconsin MKE PK
Played this game earlier this year without success, but that game did go over the listed 112.5 with only 56 possessions. Going back to the well here with an extra three points of value, and again a Clemson offense I don't think is still all that great. Also have Clemson with North Carolina on tap and just coming off their first conference road victory and highest offensive output on the road as well where they shot a sizzling 58%. In terms of Virginia, they'll play slow, and they defend well. It's also important to note that they have rebounded well off a loss all year and they haven't lost two straight all year. More importantly, I think it's safe to say that after giving up their highest conference total of the year of 70 to UNC last time out, they should rebound defensively. Going a step further, after a loss this year, they've given up 35 (Drexel), 38 (Georgia Tech), 49 (Boston College), and 44 (Wake Forest). And yes, those are full game point totals. In terms of the injury to Joe Harris, it only hurts their offense. Big Men in the pack defense aren't all that important. He was a pivotal reason the first game went over (he hit 3 straight three-pointers in a 19-3 run in the 2H). That first game was also a game in which Clemson's Milton Jenning's did not play. He's their best interior defender, and not all that efficient on the offensive end. Just having him in the lineup helps the Clemson defense, but it also takes possessions away from Booker and Smith who had decent games in the first meeting. Should be a game where Virginia makes it a point to hammer the ball into Scott, and a game Bennett really relies on the defense. If I liked this a few weeks ago, hard to avoid this now catching a few more points given the above.
3* Virginia/Clemson Under 115.5
First two times these two teams played this year, Indiana State was in the middle of a Wichita/Creighton sandwich. Since then, the offense has come to life with point totals of 90, 61, 66, 60, and 78. If you've been paying any attention to Illinois State, the defense has simply hit the fan. Yah, they held Drake to 53 (Drake was without Simons), Bradley to 48 in a rivalry game, and Southern Illinois to 40 in a big revenge setting. Fact is, they haven't been able to stop anyone else. Last four road games in the Valley they've yeilded 77, 79, 102, and 78. Not sure going into the other ISU tonight is going to help. Both teams shoot the three-ball quite a bit and neither team defends it worth a damn. Combine Indiana State's little revenge angle here with Illinois State's inability to defend on the road, and this is a nice little equation for an over. Also tough to not like Indiana State here, but the three-balls that go up tough to determine a winner here. The first meeting, Illinois State only shot 17 of them. That's their lowest attempt total unless you count the SIU game where they took the air out of the ball the 2H (and still ended up with 16).
2* Illinois State/Indiana State Over 128.5
Lean: VCU +1
Lean: James Madison +5
Lean: Kent State -4.5
Lean: Indiana State -4
GL
0
Posted:
#37
I gotta admit it, your thread is one of the reasons I log on the covers daily. Me and you dont play many of the same games, but I love reading about the smaller schools and your analysis of the games you are on (and even the ones you dont play!) . So for that, I thank you. 
I believe E Mich to be a live dog tonight and I think Florida is stepping into a buzzsaw tonight. Who really wants to bet Bama only getting a baket and a free throw? LV is known to throw stinkers up at random times, and tonight looks like a decent chance as they will have all of TCUs attention.
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
I gotta admit it, your thread is one of the reasons I log on the covers daily. Me and you dont play many of the same games, but I love reading about the smaller schools and your analysis of the games you are on (and even the ones you dont play!) . So for that, I thank you.
I believe E Mich to be a live dog tonight and I think Florida is stepping into a buzzsaw tonight. Who really wants to bet Bama only getting a baket and a free throw? LV is known to throw stinkers up at random times, and tonight looks like a decent chance as they will have all of TCUs attention.
Thanks Train. Florida game scares me. They've looked like dogsh*t on the road and Bama's more of a system. As long as Releford's in the lineup, they're essentially the same thing with a little less size.
TCU's tough. Game comes down to pace. If it's up and down like both want, then I don't see how there is even a remote chance that TCU can score with them. Travel issues, and just going on the road a bit of a distraction, but this is just class of the MVC versus cellar, and a style UNLV wants to play. Ugly game.
GL
0
Posted:
#42
hey nropp11, you seem like such a good analyzer, and your aproach to games is awsome as well. Im a numbers guy and thats how i try to find value. i make my lines by using the stats covers gives, but for some reason when i do find a line that is off, and the team with value is also the team consensus likes, often means that it is a game to stay away from. however when i do find a game with value and consensus is on other side, i find that it is a high % play. My question to you is why is that? for example, my line i came up with using last 5 games played as well as the home and away stats, i had texas tch -6.8 plus the avg home edge of 5 which would have them around a 11.8 favorite. now everyone was on A&M and texas tch is killing them at half during the time i wrote this. but then why is it on another example IND st my line was like 13.7 so the value was on them however consensus was on them so i stayed away. and they are losing the game outright.
0
Posted:
#43
the reason why i'm asking u this, is because i saw your comment :
As for LSU, teams never look as bad as they were the previous game, and never look as good as they were either. Law of averages keep us coming back to hit the submit button and the reason that many spots open up for value. Otherwise, we would have 170 teams that were 32-0 and another 170 that are 0-32. In regards to the game the other night, I would assume LSU's mental preparation was not all the way there. They were playing a second unit, they were aware of the suspensions, so it's a spot where a team thinks they can coast to victory. They did still win by 9. No thoughts on this game tonight. A little out-matched at the guard position, but both match up well on the interior. MSU hasn't dropped two games in a row all year. Should be a good game, don't see any value.
And it made wonder if using avg. and old data is more of a fade when the the numbers are really off, since you said the law of averages means things are going to be differant
0
Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by bobbie18:
Bobby it's late, go to bed pls
the reason why i'm asking u this, is because i saw your comment :
As for LSU, teams never look as bad as they were the previous game, and never look as good as they were either. Law of averages keep us coming back to hit the submit button and the reason that many spots open up for value. Otherwise, we would have 170 teams that were 32-0 and another 170 that are 0-32. In regards to the game the other night, I would assume LSU's mental preparation was not all the way there. They were playing a second unit, they were aware of the suspensions, so it's a spot where a team thinks they can coast to victory. They did still win by 9. No thoughts on this game tonight. A little out-matched at the guard position, but both match up well on the interior. MSU hasn't dropped two games in a row all year. Should be a good game, don't see any value.
And it made wonder if using avg. and old data is more of a fade when the the numbers are really off, since you said the law of averages means things are going to be differant
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