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#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 37-21, +64.45
March Leans: 19-16
Just one brief thought on a future that I believe holds a bit of value in regards to the “big” tournament, and that is Ohio State to win either the East (1.5/1), or to win the whole thing (8/1). I’m not sure that there is a coach licking his chops at the type of draw he got more than Thad Matta (maybe Self and Kansas), but I’m sure there are arguments that could be made. In terms of why Ohio State, that the match-ups really favor them. Drawing a WVU or Gonzaga in the second round is certainly favorable, but more importantly, I focus on Florida State. I think Florida State’s in a favorable quadrant, and I do expect them to have some trouble prior to getting to the sweet 16, but if they do, I really can’t expect them to get by Ohio State. As I sat there and watched selection show expert after expert break down the brackets, a greater percentage chose Florida State to beat Ohio State in the game to get to the Elite 8. Here’s the thing, and if you paid any attention at all this year, Florida State just can’t flat out score against good defenses. Sure, they put up some high point totals on UNC and Duke more than once, I don’t put them in the category of good defenses as I have stated numerous times before. Here is the Florida State point totals against top 100 defenses this year: 41, 49, 73 (this game went 3OT and they scored 47 in regulation), 59, 58, 63, 62, 63, 48, and 63. Those are pathetic, and I feel it’s important to note that Ohio State isn’t only a top 100 defense, they are the #1 defense in the country. In the top half of the bracket, I think Syracuse got a horrendous draw. Probably having to play a tough and physical Kansas State team, but more importantly having to play any combination of Vandy/Harvard/Wisconsin/Montana who all shoot the 3 ball extremely well against a zone. So, just going off of that, I think Ohio State holds a ton of value in regards to how Matta’s going to approach their road to the Final 4. It’s really the only region I found value in. Other thoughts, maybe a Kansas with a pretty easy road, and getting to St. Louis. The West is a mess, and certainly what I feel is the toughest region (Missouri, Florida, Marquette offenses and Michigan State, Louisville defenses, along with some mid-majors, and a bracket that has Memphis as an 8 and STL as a 9?). This region reeks of disaster, and upsets. Kentucky’s region I view as pretty easy, with the only contenders being a 5 senior Wichita squad, along with maybe a UNLV or Xavier. That wraps up the only thoughts I have on the bracket. ---And those thoughts were typed before this Fab Melo news broke today.
Akron/Northwestern
This is really an interesting match-up. Granted, only 37 at-large teams are allowed in the field, so neither of these teams probably had a case to present and both were left out of the field. I think Akron not getting in was a bit more of a snub however. They ran through the conference season, they were one of the few teams to win more than a handful or road games, played an extremely aggressive out of conference slate, won the conference outright, and lost by 1 in the final with an automatic bid on the line. To know that they were so close, I expect a little letdown here. With Northwestern, you have a bit of the same, yet slightly different. They really didn’t earn anything as opposed to what they did throughout the season. They were reportedly in the first four out of the tournament, which Carmody called the toughest day of his basketball life when they weren’t put in the field. So, you do have a somber team and one that might letdown a bit tonight. However, that isn’t the case as they take some pretty big motivation into the tournament tonight. Why? Well, if you’re a first four out, how in the world do you get a #4 seed in the NIT. Carmody says they’re over the NCAA selection process, and he has a group of motivated kids out to prove that they weren’t a #4 seed, and a team that gets just one home game before flying across country to Washington if they were to win. One of these teams is motivated, and it’s not the one you think. Akron was oh so close to getting in, Northwestern was not. In terms of the game itself, Akron’s bigs are pretty much neutralized by the 1-3-1 zone, something they have yet to see on the season, and something that’s going to be tough to adjust, too. They’re going to get a ton of touches along the baseline, but these bigs are more focused on getting the ball in the paint and scoring from there. They can’t do that against a 1-3-1, however good or bad the zone is really doesn’t matter if they can’t utilize their strengths against it. And it shows with this year’s results. The team owns two victories against a zone defense all year, Ball State and Eastern Michigan, both of whom lie on the other half of the MAC which might be the worst half of a conference in all of Mid-Major Universe. The other games they have faced off against a zone against similar teams, if not lesser teams than what Northwestern brings to the table:
Lost by 21 (WVU)
Lost by 5 (Duquesne)
Lost by 12 (Buffalo)
Lost by 4 (Buffalo)
They just can’t use their strength against the zone. Offensively, they haven’t really seen a modified Princeton offense either on the year, and one day of prep time before travel just isn’t enough, especially coming off such an emotionally draining loss in the final of your conference tournament with an automatic at stake. More importantly, being...
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