Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 57-40, +82.65
March Leans: 34-35
Spot play. Few of them actually within the same play, and a few spots that I have a tough time avoiding. First, Oregon just scored 100 points, the first time that’s happened since 2008 against a Division 1 opponent. They completed that feat in just 76 possessions. In fact, in both post-season NIT games, they have now scored 96 and 108 in a couple up-tempo ballgames. Tonight’s game should feature some up-tempo as well, or should it? Both meetings this year only hit 70 possessions. In each meeting, one team flat out tanked on the other’s home court and the games really weren’t close. Which leads me to the next spot – and it may not seem all that bad, but it holds value. Back in early February, Washington went into Oregon as a 1 point favorite and got waxed. Yes, you read that right. You want value? Washington was a 1 point favorite AT Oregon. If you watched the game, it was pretty obvious that Washington wasn’t all there. They looked terrible as they often did on the road (pointed out Washington’s road struggles quite a bit this year). They’re just a completely different team when they get away from Alaska Airlines Arena. Not only that, but they were faced with a difficult task in this one prior to the ball even being tipped in the air. The normal 10 minute drive from the team hotel took an hour as they were stuck in traffic caused by an accident, and they arrived just in time for the warm-up. Now most of you will say oh that isn’t all that big of a deal, yadda, yadda, OK, it probably isn’t. But on the mental side of things, it is. Players have pre-game rituals, routines, whatever you want to call it and it will affect teams from the mental standpoint. Enough of the Dr. Phil stuff and more focus on revenge. First place team runs into some trouble and shows up late and tanks, yet still ends up winning the conference. Getting the better defense with height in a revenge spot is key as well. Back to the value, the line just doesn’t make sense. Washington was a 9 point favorite in this spot earlier in the year. What’s changed? Oregon’s offense found its rhythm? They’re scoring more now, so they hold more value? I guess that could be true, but here’s what the defense has done in this same time frame in terms of how many points per possession they’ve given up:
1.28
1.03
1.02
0.75 (Utah – #317 offense)
1.16
1.09
So, while the Ducks have looked good offensively, they’ve looked just as bad defensively. This one should be a battle as both teams hate each other and everything depending on each other’s season comes down to a 3rd and final meeting between the two. The road or home team? The bad or good defense? The team coming into a letdown spot after just scoring 100+ or the team coming in having held a couple pretty good offenses well below a point per possession? Pretty simple spot play for me here tonight.
5* Washington -4.5
GL
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