Posted:
#1
November
12-6 +5.5 units
December 13-5 +10.1 units
January 9-8 +3 units; 2-unit plays 3-0; 3-unit plays: 1-0
Hey guys, solid win with Citadel winning straight up as 7-pt dogs last night. Feeling really good about my plays (unposted have been super solid in Jan, just trying to find time to write this games up has been my biggest struggle). I appreciate all the support and its really true that we are in this together and when we stay positive much better things come our way. There are going to be some awesome spots over the next few weeks so stay disciplined and we are less than four weeks away from trying out "the system" again this season. Today I'm on UNDER 140 in the OU/Texas Tech game. Here are some reasons why:
First, I see no value whatsoever in a side in this game. These teams are very very similar statistically speaking and they are in very similar spots in their seasons. Both have sucky coaches, both are 0 for the conference season, both know this could be their most winnable games in weeks, both have gotten destroyed by top-tier Big 12 teams over the past two weeks, etc. etc. I give OU a slight edge based on their mindset as their coaches and players are shockingly optimistic and seem intent on turning the season around (which they won't). Tech, on the other hand, is nothing but absolute negativity. Knight has called out his seniors multiple times the last few weeks and then dropped the "I'm use to having seniors who step-up" bomb on them after the last loss. Every quote from the players is about how they are terrible and Knight even went so far as to have a Wes Welker-like press conference were he turned multiple questions into an opportunity to trash the team even more. Tech does have one thing in its favor, it beat a MUCH BETTER OU team twice last year (for 2 of their 4 conference wins) so they will be more confident coming into this game then you would normally expect. So on to the total:
OU made the decision at the Christmas break that the only way they are going to win and compete in the Big 12 is so slow the game way down and play more zone defense. Since the break, OU has taken 49, 43, 45, 55, and 51 shots. Also keep in mind that they were way behind in 3 of those 5 games and still didn't pick the pace up much at all. In their first 3 conference games (all blowout losses) they are averaging only 61 possessions per game. Their defense, on the other hand, hasn't been terrible at all as they "held" Texas A&M and Texas to under 70 points and Baylor to 74 (all three of those teams are top-40 in offensive efficiency while Tech will be coming in as number 118).
Meanwhile, Tech has been a disaster on both end of the floor. In conference action they are averaging under 60 pts a game and are only taking 53.5 shots per contest (turnover mainly to blame and not many offensive boards). The one game Tech points to as playing "well" is the Baylor game because of their defensive effort. Tech knows that defense will be the name of the game today if they are to beat OU and pick up a conference road win. Both games last season between these two teams barely sniffed 140ish and both teams were much better offensively than they are this season.
As I mentioned yesterday, its really important to know look at the stats since Christmas break, since conference play started, and/or their last 5 games. There are a few number that jump out when looking at these stats. First, neither team is getting to the line very often (Tech less than 16 and OU 13 times), both teams will need to be very efficient to sniff this total with that few of free throws. Next, neither team is getting many offensive boards/2nd chance points (Tech less than 9 a game and OU less than 6 - another reason I'm leary to back OU tonight). In their last 5 games, both teams offense has produced more turnovers than assists and both teams defense has done the same. All three of these factors are very strong indicators that this game can/should go under the total tonight.
The matchup zone defense that OU threw at Texas on Saturday caused a lot of 20+ second possessions and I expect something similar tonight. OU has NO desire to get out and run and Capel has them run their offense into the ground and it eventually turns into their famous "shot clock is under 8 seconds - I'll attempt to break this guy down off the dribble and force a shot" possessions. In the Texas game, OU had 0-1 player crash the offensive boards and sent everyone back to protect against transition baskets, I expect a similar gameplan tonight.
Can this game go over? Sure, OU is very streaky from 3-pt land and Tech hasn't been playing good defense all season, but with that being said, neither of these teams are getting to the line, neither are getting fast break points or second chance points, both are shooting less shots per game in conference play and both understand that defense is the way they are going to win games, not outscoring their opponent (Tech should know this but might still be too stubborn). The only real danger I see is that a) the game is close and goes to overtime or one of the two idiot coaches starts fouling and extending the game too early or b) OU jumps out to a lead and Tech starts picking up the pace and their crappy extended defensive pressure and the game has to many easy baskets. Aside from that, I think that 8 times out of 10 these teams will play a game in the low-60's and its a fairly easy under 140. I wouldn't be surprised if one of these two teams struggled to get to 60 points (not confident on which one that will be) and if that is the case the under should get home. With those thoughts in mind, I'm more confident than a normal 1-unit bet but not as confident as I normally am for a 2 or 3-unit bet so I'm splitting the difference and making this a 1.5 unit play (or about 6% of my bankroll). Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together.
UNDER 140 Tech/OU for 1.5 units at Matchbook
December 13-5 +10.1 units
January 9-8 +3 units; 2-unit plays 3-0; 3-unit plays: 1-0
Hey guys, solid win with Citadel winning straight up as 7-pt dogs last night. Feeling really good about my plays (unposted have been super solid in Jan, just trying to find time to write this games up has been my biggest struggle). I appreciate all the support and its really true that we are in this together and when we stay positive much better things come our way. There are going to be some awesome spots over the next few weeks so stay disciplined and we are less than four weeks away from trying out "the system" again this season. Today I'm on UNDER 140 in the OU/Texas Tech game. Here are some reasons why:
First, I see no value whatsoever in a side in this game. These teams are very very similar statistically speaking and they are in very similar spots in their seasons. Both have sucky coaches, both are 0 for the conference season, both know this could be their most winnable games in weeks, both have gotten destroyed by top-tier Big 12 teams over the past two weeks, etc. etc. I give OU a slight edge based on their mindset as their coaches and players are shockingly optimistic and seem intent on turning the season around (which they won't). Tech, on the other hand, is nothing but absolute negativity. Knight has called out his seniors multiple times the last few weeks and then dropped the "I'm use to having seniors who step-up" bomb on them after the last loss. Every quote from the players is about how they are terrible and Knight even went so far as to have a Wes Welker-like press conference were he turned multiple questions into an opportunity to trash the team even more. Tech does have one thing in its favor, it beat a MUCH BETTER OU team twice last year (for 2 of their 4 conference wins) so they will be more confident coming into this game then you would normally expect. So on to the total:
OU made the decision at the Christmas break that the only way they are going to win and compete in the Big 12 is so slow the game way down and play more zone defense. Since the break, OU has taken 49, 43, 45, 55, and 51 shots. Also keep in mind that they were way behind in 3 of those 5 games and still didn't pick the pace up much at all. In their first 3 conference games (all blowout losses) they are averaging only 61 possessions per game. Their defense, on the other hand, hasn't been terrible at all as they "held" Texas A&M and Texas to under 70 points and Baylor to 74 (all three of those teams are top-40 in offensive efficiency while Tech will be coming in as number 118).
Meanwhile, Tech has been a disaster on both end of the floor. In conference action they are averaging under 60 pts a game and are only taking 53.5 shots per contest (turnover mainly to blame and not many offensive boards). The one game Tech points to as playing "well" is the Baylor game because of their defensive effort. Tech knows that defense will be the name of the game today if they are to beat OU and pick up a conference road win. Both games last season between these two teams barely sniffed 140ish and both teams were much better offensively than they are this season.
As I mentioned yesterday, its really important to know look at the stats since Christmas break, since conference play started, and/or their last 5 games. There are a few number that jump out when looking at these stats. First, neither team is getting to the line very often (Tech less than 16 and OU 13 times), both teams will need to be very efficient to sniff this total with that few of free throws. Next, neither team is getting many offensive boards/2nd chance points (Tech less than 9 a game and OU less than 6 - another reason I'm leary to back OU tonight). In their last 5 games, both teams offense has produced more turnovers than assists and both teams defense has done the same. All three of these factors are very strong indicators that this game can/should go under the total tonight.
The matchup zone defense that OU threw at Texas on Saturday caused a lot of 20+ second possessions and I expect something similar tonight. OU has NO desire to get out and run and Capel has them run their offense into the ground and it eventually turns into their famous "shot clock is under 8 seconds - I'll attempt to break this guy down off the dribble and force a shot" possessions. In the Texas game, OU had 0-1 player crash the offensive boards and sent everyone back to protect against transition baskets, I expect a similar gameplan tonight.
Can this game go over? Sure, OU is very streaky from 3-pt land and Tech hasn't been playing good defense all season, but with that being said, neither of these teams are getting to the line, neither are getting fast break points or second chance points, both are shooting less shots per game in conference play and both understand that defense is the way they are going to win games, not outscoring their opponent (Tech should know this but might still be too stubborn). The only real danger I see is that a) the game is close and goes to overtime or one of the two idiot coaches starts fouling and extending the game too early or b) OU jumps out to a lead and Tech starts picking up the pace and their crappy extended defensive pressure and the game has to many easy baskets. Aside from that, I think that 8 times out of 10 these teams will play a game in the low-60's and its a fairly easy under 140. I wouldn't be surprised if one of these two teams struggled to get to 60 points (not confident on which one that will be) and if that is the case the under should get home. With those thoughts in mind, I'm more confident than a normal 1-unit bet but not as confident as I normally am for a 2 or 3-unit bet so I'm splitting the difference and making this a 1.5 unit play (or about 6% of my bankroll). Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together.
UNDER 140 Tech/OU for 1.5 units at Matchbook
0
Solid bro. Great play & writeup. 
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