Tuesday write-up: UAB @ VCU

Ah, what a great matchup. Here we have two teams that each received controversial at-large bids to the big dance last year. (I bet you remember one of the two, don’t you?)

UAB lost a fantastic guard-duo in Aaron Johnson (C-USA player of the year) and Jamarr Sanders (First team all-conference; 17.8 ppg and 4.6 rpg). These two seniors comprised the best backcourt in the conference, and it left a huge question mark on the offensive identity of this team going into 2012. It was anticipated that Head Coach Mike Davis would have to fill these two holes by building the team’s offense around its frontcourt. 6-10 senior Cameron Moore (14 ppg last year, the team’s leading returning scorer) and 6-8 junior Ovie Soko have been the two players who have really stepped up this year. Moore has average a double-double per game (14.4 ppg, 10 boards…also, 4.1 blocks! That’s #3 in the country). The dude is an absolute menace in the paint. Coming into the season, College Yearbook Prospectus said the following about Soko:

Ovie Soko is coming off a season where he was perhaps the most improved player in the conference. Soko started 29 games and averaged nine points per outing after playing just six minutes a night over the first 20 games of his career.

Soko has lived up to expectations as well and continues to get better. He averages less than 30 minutes per game, yet still has 8.5 PPG and 7.3 boards per game. He is a powerhouse in the paint, and not only does he get rebounds, but he CONVERTS his offensive rebounds, shooting an incredible .609 FG% on 46 attempts. I’m guessing part of the reason he’s not getting more PT is due to an increased role by sophomore Jordan Swing. Swing is 2nd on the team in scoring at 9.8 ppg, yet he also sees less than 30 minutes of PT each game. He is a 6-6 G-F, and is not afraid to play in the post.

Please stick with me. I’m sure most of you are wondering why I’m going on about a 2-6 UAB team that’s had a terrible start to this season. The key in this game is the matchups. Keep reading…

Like I said, UAB lost a lot coming into this year. But VCU lost even more. Here’s a clip from CYB:

[A]s entertaining as last year’s team was, it’s important to keep in mind that VCU was solidly in the second-tier in the CAA, and its shooters got hot at the best of times. The Rams lost four senior starters in the offseason, in­cluding Jamie Skeen. While Skeen was responsible for a number of three-pointers in the tournament run, he was also responsible for keeping VCU’s defensive rebound­ing from being abysmal last year. Unfortunately, there are no obvious replacements for Skeen’s work on the boards. Bradford Burgess is the lone returning start­er, and although he’s been a highly efficient player, he figures to shoulder much more of the load this season.

And that’s exactly what he’s done. Burgess has averaged 14.9 ppg and has knocked down 24 three-pointers, shooing 40.9% from behind the arc. Also, nearly 5 RPG. He is the team’s unquestionable leader and can do damage from anywhere; he is 6-6 and is listed as a G-F. He comes into today’s game after romping UNC-Wilmington on Saturday, where he scored 22 points.

Aside from Burgess, this team is…or rather…SHOULD be in pure rebuilding mode. Burgess is the team’s only senior, and there are only 3 juniors on the team’s roster of 13 players right now (1 of which gets absolutely no playing time). It’s safe to say they have been exceeding expectations this season, after smearing USF and Richmond and losing by single digits to Bama @ Bama. I don’t want to discredit them for these matchups. They played well in these games, and USF and Richmond are nothing to ignore (saw USF play last night against Cle St., they’re really not that bad)...KEEP READING STICK WITH ME

 Biggest weakness for VCU is post play. They average 279^th in rebounds per game and struggle down low. This was apparent against Bama. UAB’s frontcourt is key to this game and the reason why VCU won’t get the easy win. Biggest weakness for UAB is…putting points on the board. They average a pathetic 56 ppg. However, they only give up 60.8. UAB plays defense through and through, and have already faced some insane offenses. The most points they’ve given up was to Creighton (70), but Creighton is 6^th in the country in ppg and shooting percentage. Their last win over Middle Tennessee State was a win over the best shooting team in the country.They held Middle Tennessee St. to just 56 points. Might as well take a good luck at all their games right now:

# 39 Creighton: 70-60 L

#46 Murray State: 62-55 L

#237 Troy: 71-59 W

#24 Wichita State: 68-46 L

#308 UTM: 59-54 L

#209 USA: 55-47 L

#59 Kent State: 57-48 L

#68 MTU: 66-56 W

Of their losses, only one of them was by more than 10 points.They have certainly slipped some games to bad teams by close margins, but they’ve also slipped games to GREAT teams by close margins. When they lose, they lose close games. This helps when you’re just trying to cover a 12 point spread.

UAB has played the #84 overall non-conference strength of schedule. VCU’s non-conference SOS is #149. UAB has overall offensive efficiency of #257 in country, and #65 defensively. VCU’s is #51 and #78. This further shows that UAB’s offense is the biggest question mark on this game. But UAB should know what to do and give the ball to Moore and Soko. Their defense should deliver tonight. VCU is a fantastic three-point shooting team, but I have faith that UAB will be able to do what they did to MTU and keep the score low. UAB also loves slow-ass basketball, with the #332 tempo in the game. VCU doesn’t run, either. It’s much easier to cover a 12 point spread when you have teams putting up 50 or 60 points per game than it is when you have a UNLV shootout.

Just want to drive home the point of where these teams were projected to finish at the beginning of the season. CYB is eerily good at their predictions. They rank UAB to finish 2^nd in C-USA and #72 in NCAA, with Memphis being the only team ahead in the conference. That puts them ahead of teams such as Tulsa, Marshall, UCF. VCU, on the other hand, who sits pretty at #1 in CAA currently, is only projected to finish 4^th in the conference, and #68 overall. 4^th is pretty good, but this is definitely a down year for the CAA and that’s worth noting.

Bottom line: good time to buy low and sell high on this one. This is a great spot for UAB to turn their season around; they have great individual matchups in this game and will thoroughly motivated to get this win. They haven’t played a game since December 7^th. They’re healthy, rested, and have had 13 days to prepare for this game.

UAB +12