YTD: 15-10 (60%)
On a 1-5 slide, and coming off the Bradley/Southern Illinois loss that missed the over by the hook
Play: Valparaiso / Wisconsin – Green Bay Over 137
On the surface, this will probably not be a popular play as GB comes in only averaging 59.7 ppg. However, much of their offensive struggles this year can be attributed to the fact that they’ve faced the 3rd hardest strength of schedule with respect to defense in the country this year, including 4 vs the top 25 (Wyoming, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Marquette). More than half of their opponents this year actually have defenses ranked in the top 100 so it’s easy to see why they have struggled at times on the offensive end.
Tonight, however, should be a different story as GB gets to face a Valpo team that won’t mind getting out and running with them and will not bring the defensive intensity that the Phoenix have seen with many of their opponents (Valpo comes in as the 3rd fastest team in the Horizon (66.8 possessions, #179) and 3rd worst defense in the conference allowing 1.043 pts per possession (#246)). This proved to be very true in their first match-up on 12/31, a game that saw GB score a season high 87 points. It was also evident in their match-up vs a similar-styled Detroit team on 1/12 that saw an 80-73 final on 70 possessions.
On the flip side, we get a Valpo team who leads the country in 2P% at 57.2% facing a GB defense that has given up an average of 77.8 points in its L5 conference games. Furthermore, 7 of the 9 games that Valpo has faced an opponent ranked in the top 200 nationally with respect to pace has gone over tonight’s total (average final total 155.4). This stat applies to Green Bay as they come in ranked #95 with respect to adjusted tempo. There’s further value based on the fact that Valpo is coming off a 5 game stretch of facing slow paced conference opponents Wright St, Youngstown St, Cleveland St, Loyola, and Ill-Chicago.
And for those who like historical trends, the over is 8-2 in their L10 match ups
Could this go under – it easily could as GB comes in only averaging .938 pts per possession (#267). However, I believe the situation is right for an offensive breakout from GB vs an opponent that will be more than willing to get up and down the court trading baskets with them.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
gl friend
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