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Vegas vs Kenpom System 2012/2013

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Posted: #1
I have been working on a master spreadsheet during the off season in order to do some back-testing to find tweaks that might increase the winning percentage and cut down the number of plays.  (up to 30 games on Saturdays was not easy on anybody's bank roll).

The season is almost here and I am not quite done with the spreadsheet.  If any of you guys that helped last year would like to help me finish it up that would be great.  Let me know!

Cheers to another good season!
 
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Posted: #2
Here are some stats I have already compiled from last season:

Full Games:
347-306-12  (53.14%)
1st Halfs:
363-285-17 (56.09%)

The official plays will be 1st half plays this season
 
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Posted: #3
Last year, someone suggested cutting out the games that had lower than 30 for a thrill score...I back tested the thrill score to see if this change would help the system:

Thrill Score          Full Game Record          1st Half Record

70+                                  33-31                                 6-8

60-69                              25-26                               30-21
                   
50-59                              45-23                               41-30

40-49                              64-47                               58-51

30-39                              72-77                               83-66

20-29                              76-86                               84-73

0-19                                 57-37                              60-33

It is obvious that cutting out games with a thrill score under 30 would NOT be beneficial to the system's performance
 
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Posted: #4
why not just used games with a thrill score 0-19, 40-59 those games seemed to hit at a much higher rate then and would make it far more profitable 
 
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Posted: #5
then again thats just one yr you would prob have to go back a couple more yrs but if its holding true for those thrill scores, playing solely those games they seem to be hitting better or close to 60% 
 
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Posted: #6
Some more numbers:

Dogs with a covers consensus over 50 went 30-29

Faves with a covers consensus over 60 went 18-19

Faves with covers consensus between 50 and 59 went 55-48

This year, the system will not include Dogs with a consensus over 50 or Favorites with a consensus over 60

This will cut down on the number of plays and hopefully increase the winning percentage
 
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Posted: #7
Glad to help any way I can.  I'm the one that put together the spreadsheet last year to copy and past the KP lines and the offshore lines.

I don't have time to crunch numbers for you but a couple of suggestions. Look for sweet spots as far as days of the week and week of the season.  As I recall the system started breaking down toward the end of the season, but was on fire right before that.  I also remember weekends tended not to be as successful as weekdays.  See if you can filter out specific days of the week that are significantly better/worse than others.  And see if there is a sweet spot in the season like WK 5-WK12 or whatever.

The only other suggestion is to look at the prior game.  See if there is a skew relative to either team having a "blowout" win or loss in the previous game.  Since spreads are set largely as a matter of public perception, this should create opportunities for mis-priced games.
 
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Posted: #8
SScott999,

I have gathered and input all of the data that I wanted to get.

Those are good suggestions, I will look at weeks/days of the week to see if I can spot some trends.

I can send you the spreadsheet if you would like to do some digging as well
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Id like to hear about your system.  I am a subscriber to KPom myself.  Very valuable tool.  With a power index, like sagarin ratings, I can formulate a line by the margin of differences in how theyre rated.  Surprisingly accurate, especially in football and the opening lines.  Things I always am in search for there is a variance, or a disparity between the sagarin line and vegas line.  Good method of finding some value with those large differences.  Am interested in hearing what you do with KP.
 
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Posted: #10
It's been awhile since I updated by if you go to http: // kenpomvsvega s.blog spot. com/ you will get the gist.
 
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Posted: #11
The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the opening line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5
4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points.
8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points.
12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points.
16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

Two notes:

I will not be wagering on the Dogs that have over 50% of the bets according to covers contests.

I will not be wagering on the Favorites that have over 60% of the bets according to covers contests.
 
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Posted: #12
So in essence, we take the opposite of what you would initially think to do.

If there is a large difference between Kenpoms line and the "vegas line," many people would look at that game and see "value" in siding with the kenpom ratings.

We assume that Vegas has information on the game that skews the line away from the kenpom ratings and that there is a good reason for the large difference.  Because of that presumed good reason, we side with Vegas
 
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Posted: #13
I like it. Not sure how clear my rationale was with my example for NCAA football using the sagarin ratings, but it's identical to what you say. I look for variance in the sagarin lines vs Vegas open line and side with Vegas.  Are pomeroys lines, or outcomes, accurately reflective of of his four factors and his strategies? And was the larger the variance, or margin of difference, dictate your wager confidence? It appears he calculates at 4 point home advantage. Not sure how he calculates other numbers to predict the outcome. Plus I'm curious how close ate his totals? I'd like to partake in this with you all,just to get a feel. love college hoops.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by 2dawgnation2:

I like it. Not sure how clear my rationale was with my example for NCAA football using the sagarin ratings, but it's identical to what you say. I look for variance in the sagarin lines vs Vegas open line and side with Vegas.  Are pomeroys lines, or outcomes, accurately reflective of of his four factors and his strategies? And was the larger the variance, or margin of difference, dictate your wager confidence? It appears he calculates at 4 point home advantage. Not sure how he calculates other numbers to predict the outcome. Plus I'm curious how close ate his totals? I'd like to partake in this with you all,just to get a feel. love college hoops.


KP's system is purely mathematical.  I am not sure of his exact formula but is is based on the four factors.  He does NOT do any kind of situational capping as far as I can see.  I have been following him for four years now.
 
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Posted: #15
 
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Posted: #16
The system has a lot of merits.  The only downside I can see, is Vegas takes into account "public perception" when they set lines (which is often misguided).  So if you're not careful, you can actually end up betting with the public on the wrong side.  But I know that's why you added the rule not to bet with public over 60% in favorites.

If only there was a valid way to differentiate between vegas lines that are fan favorites, and vegas lines that are skewed to get people to take the side that is "too good to be true".  Then we'd have something special.
 
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Posted: #17
Between Feb 1 and Feb 15 the system had a losing record last season (54-57).

But, between Feb 16 and March 2 the system went 53-43.

Even though it seemed that the system slowed down in February, it kept churning out winners until the end of the regular season.  I will stick with it until the end this year
 
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Posted: #18
Some more research:

          Mon      Tues          Wed         THur           Fri         Sat         Sun

FG  18-15     34-18         58-62       68-45      18-12   131-132     20-23

1H  20-14     26-25        62-59        75-39     19-10    137-118    24-19 
 
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Posted: #19
Week Starting       Full Game       1st Half
11/21                        18-19                 20-16-1
11/28                       25-17-1              24-16-3
12/5                         17-16                  17-16
12/12                       12-9                    17-3-1
12/19                       19-16                 18-16-1
12/26                       20-23-1             25-18-1
1/2                           35-26-2              38-23-2
1/9                           34-24-1                 35-24
1/16                        22-24-2               24-22-2
1/23                        36-31-1               36-30-2
1/30                        24-20-1               28-16-1
2/6                          21-28-1                22-27-1
2/13                        32-31                   30-32-1
2/20                        32-21-2               29-25-1


Red writing signifies weeks with a losing record.  Like i said before, I will use the system until the end of the regular season this year.
 
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Posted: #20
Wednesdays and Saturdays had the lowest winning percentage last season.  That could have something to do with the conferences that usually play on those days, could have something to do with more games televised and lines skewed to the public more than usual.  Or it could just be a coincidence.  One year of data is not enough to throw out a day of the week.  We will revisit this theory next year
 
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Posted: #21
Interesting numbers. I will be looking forward to seeing how it works out during the season.
 
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Posted: #22
hey beaverfan. I can bet reverse line movement would be a criteria for slimming down plays.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by thakidd:

hey beaverfan. I can bet reverse line movement would be a criteria for slimming down plays.


If you look at last years threads you can see that reverse line movement plays were very successful
 
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Posted: #24
Very nice info thx alot!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #25
BOL tonight buddy....
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