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Vegas vs Kenpom System Week II

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Posted: #1
YTD Record

For the night: 0-0 (-%)

For the week: 0-0 (-%)

For the year: 16-7 (69.6%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 6-2 (75%)
Road Teams: 8-5 (61.5%)

Favorites: 5-4 (55.6%)
Dogs:     12-2 (85.7%)

Line moved toward KP:  11-5 (68.8%)
Line moved away KP:  5-2 (71.4%)

Full Game Record 12-11 (52.2%)
 
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Posted: #2
The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the opening line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5
4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points.
8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points.
12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points.
16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

Three notes:

I will not be wagering on the Dogs that have over 50% of the bets according to covers contests.

I will not be wagering on the Favorites that have over 60% of the bets according to covers contests.

All plays will be 1st halfs
 
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Posted: #3
Early look at tomorrow's card and I see two potential plays but things can change between now and tomorrow with Kenpom.

South Alabama
Southern California 
 
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Posted: #4
why only 1st half bets ?
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by behindthadeuce:

why only 1st half bets ?

Higher historical win rate.

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by behindthadeuce:

why only 1st half bets ?

Because those have proven to be wining at a higher % than full games. Last year it was the case and so far this season you can see the results:

1H bets: 16-7
Full games would have been 12-11.
 
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Posted: #7

keep it going, very nice job figuring out that the 1st halves hit much higher. very astute
 
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Posted: #8
This looks good. I'll be hopping on this train with my popcorn
 
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Posted: #9
Bol
 
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Posted: #10
Official Monday Plays

Waiting on 1st Half Line
4:00 - S. Bama (NFT)
Midnight - USC (NDA)



Waiting on Opening Line
2:30 - WF
4:30 - La Tech
5:00 - Cleve St
5:00 - Iona
7:00 - Chatt
7:30 - Quinnipac
10:00 - Uconn

 
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Posted: #11
Looks like Wake Forest is a play but the rest of the "waiting on opening line" are not. Still no line on Cleve St.
 
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Posted: #12
Bol
 
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Posted: #13
Public all over Wake... Doubt this fits his system.
 
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Posted: #14
I like wakeforest!

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

Looks like Wake Forest is a play but the rest of the "waiting on opening line" are not. Still no line on Cleve St.

It has 78% in consensus.
 
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Posted: #16
Haven't looked at public %. Was just talking about purely system difference. Just a reminder, nothing I post is official. No play is official until beaver says it is.
 
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Posted: #17
Just saw s.bama at 62% making that a no play. Sorry for those that already locked it in, and good luck. Still waiting on line for Cleveland state game. 

As of now the only play is USC at midnight
 
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Posted: #18
Official Monday Play:

USC -1.5 1H (NDA)
 
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Posted: #19
lets get this
 
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Posted: #20
Glad I stayed up to watch that shit show


 
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Posted: #21
that sucked, i watched the first 5 minutes and turned it off.
 
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Posted: #22
YTD Record

For the night: 0-1 (0%)

For the week: 0-1 (0%)

For the year: 16-8 (66.7%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 6-2 (75%)
Road Teams: 8-5 (61.5%)

Favorites: 5-4 (55.6%)
Dogs:     12-3 (80.0%)

Line moved toward KP:  11-5 (68.8%)
Line moved away KP:  5-3 (62.5%)

Full Game Record 12-12 (52.2%)

Im assuming USC wont come back to win this game
 
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Posted: #23
Does anyone know of a  website where I can find 1st half moneylines from last season?
 
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Posted: #24
i believe you can find at sbrforum
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Does anyone know of a  website where I can find 1st half moneylines from last season?


https://www.oddsportal.com/basketball/usa/ncaa-i-a-2011-2012/results/#

click on the game, then "home/away" and "1st half".
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