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Vegas vs Kenpom System Week III

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Posted: #1
The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the opening line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5
4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points.
8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points.
12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points.
16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

Three notes:

I will not be wagering on the Dogs that have over 50% of the bets according to covers contests.

I will not be wagering on the Favorites that have over 60% of the bets according to covers contests.

All plays will be 1st halfs
 
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Posted: #2
YTD Record

For the night: 0-0 (-%)

For the week: 0-0 (0%)

For the year: 20-22-1 (47.6%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 6-5-1 (54.5%)
Road Teams: 9-9 (50%)

Favorites: 5-11-1 (31.3%)
Dogs:     15-11 (57.7%)

Line moved toward KP:  13-11-1 (54.2%)
Line moved away KP:  7-8 (46.7%)

Full Game Record 22-20-1 (52.2%)
 
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Posted: #3
Early look at tomorrow and I see 2 plays. Hopefully we get back on the horse this week. I really think that the neutral court games and tournament games plus the lack of numbers to fuel Kenpom this early in the season contributed to that poor week. I'm keeping the faith in the system. Stay positive everyone. 
 
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Posted: #4
NC St and UNC fit the parameters as a dog. UNC is knocked out with a high percentage and NC St is right on the bubble.  I will wait a little bit to post the official play or no play
 
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Posted: #5
Hey beaver- played around w/ your numbers a bit.  I think last year you tightened the moves to 2.5/3/3.5/4/&5, I believe they used to be 2/3/3/4/5.   Using those old numbers, i track home dogs at 17-8. Home away moves at 11-4 , and Dog away moves at 11-7.  

Not trying to poke holes, but a bit of tweaking may get you some better results.

G/L
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by schiman:

Hey beaver- played around w/ your numbers a bit.  I think last year you tightened the moves to 2.5/3/3.5/4/&5, I believe they used to be 2/3/3/4/5.   Using those old numbers, i track home dogs at 17-8. Home away moves at 11-4 , and Dog away moves at 11-7.  

Not trying to poke holes, but a bit of tweaking may get you some better results.

G/L

+1

 

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by schiman:

Hey beaver- played around w/ your numbers a bit.  I think last year you tightened the moves to 2.5/3/3.5/4/&5, I believe they used to be 2/3/3/4/5.   Using those old numbers, i track home dogs at 17-8. Home away moves at 11-4 , and Dog away moves at 11-7.  

Not trying to poke holes, but a bit of tweaking may get you some better results.
 
So Schiman....what fits with these parameters?
G/L
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Can you see why 50% or less now? Save your time. You cant rule out the human element. Teams are going to overperform or underperform in relation to the number, its up to us to figure this out, Kenpom cant do it for you. 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by jtoler:

Can you see why 50% or less now? Save your time. You cant rule out the human element. Teams are going to overperform or underperform in relation to the number, its up to us to figure this out, Kenpom cant do it for you. 
 

Jtoler that's why we incorporate Vegas. Vegas is the "human element" as you put it. Kenpom's numbers not being enough are the basis of the entire system! Pay attention and shut it because this system will finish over 50% this year.
 
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Posted: #10
NC State looks like a play to me. At 42% right now.
 
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Posted: #11
nc st looking good with pinnacle at 5.5 and the rest at 6.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by schiman:

Hey beaver- played around w/ your numbers a bit.  I think last year you tightened the moves to 2.5/3/3.5/4/&5, I believe they used to be 2/3/3/4/5.   Using those old numbers, i track home dogs at 17-8. Home away moves at 11-4 , and Dog away moves at 11-7.  

Not trying to poke holes, but a bit of tweaking may get you some better results.

G/L


Good catch, lets go back to old numbers.  It was working really well last year
 
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Posted: #13
If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
 
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Posted: #14
The human element are the humans themselves. They will under or overperform according to the number, doing it this way wont put you over 50% guaranteed.
 
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Posted: #15
NC St was a play - and it lost


YTD Record

For the night: 0-1 (0%)

For the week: 0-1 (0%)

For the year: 20-23-1 (46.5%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 6-5-1 (54.5%)
Road Teams: 9-10 (47.4%)

Favorites: 5-11-1 (31.3%)
Dogs:     15-12 (55.6%)

Line moved toward KP:  13-11-1 (54.2%)
Line moved away KP:  7-9 (43.8%)

Full Game Record 22-21-1 (51.2%)
 
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Posted: #16
Nc st hasn't lost...yet.
 
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Posted: #17
Ga southern +1.5
Ball st +1
Boston college +.5
 
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Posted: #18
GL tonight......
 
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Posted: #19
2-1 tonight. Finally a positive night!
 
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Posted: #20
YTD Record

For the night: 2-1 (66.7%)

For the week: 2-2 (50%)

For the year: 22-24-1 (47.8%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 7-6-1 (53.8%)
Road Teams: 10-10 (50%)

Favorites: 5-12-1 (29.4%)
Dogs:     17-12 (58.6%)

Line moved toward KP:  13-12-1 (52%)
Line moved away KP:  8-9 (47.1%)

Full Game Record 23-23-1 (50%)
 
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Posted: #21
Seeing 5 potential plays for today with 3 of the 5 being plays only under the new old parameters of 0-4 with a 2 pt diff*.

LSU
Manhattan
Florida International*
UMKC*
Pepperdine*
 
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Posted: #22
Manhattan -4, fiu +4.5 -115, umkc +.5 -120, Lsu -2.5, Pepperdine -.5
 
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Posted: #23
3-2, another solid night...building some momentum into the weekend
 
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Posted: #24
Official Friday Plays:

Georgia St
Arkansas
Auburn

No 1st half lines up yet
 
 
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Posted: #25
Good Momentum,Beaver. 

Notice that all 3 winners last night were the 3 that did NOT fall under the stricter params.  I can't explain it, but noticed that even last year, Nov works better w/ the looser restraints.  

That said, we may now find that the next 45 days will lean toward the tighter filters.  I dont have stats from 2010- but 2011 looked that way.

I'll continue to track and let you know.... Just want to throw it out there so that you guys keep it in mind.
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