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Vegas vs Kenpom System Week VI

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Posts: 12
 
Veteran
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Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1545
Posted: #1
The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

Three notes:

I will not be wagering on the Dogs that have over 50% of the bets according to covers contests.

I will not be wagering on the Favorites that have over 60% of the bets according to covers contests.

All plays will be 1st halfs
 
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Posted: #2
YTD Record

For the night: 3-3-2 (50%)

For the week: 3-4-2 (42.9%)

For the year: 44-47-3 (48.4%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 19-20-2 (48.7%)
Road Teams: 20-15 (57.1%)

Favorites: 15-24-1 (38.5%)
Dogs:     29-23-2 (55.8%)

Line moved toward KP:  27-28-2 (49%)
Line moved away KP:  16-16-1 (50%)

Full Game Record 43-51-1 (45.7%)
 
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Posted: #3
As you can see the system has been dog garbage this season.  If it is not profitable this week, I will stop tracking it.

Official Monday Plays:

Detroit +10.5 (RDA)
UTEP +3.5 (HDT)
Ark LR +1.5 (HDT)
SUU -1 (HFN)

 
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Posted: #4
And by "dog garbage" I mean...well im not sure what I meant to say there
 
Legend
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Joined: Oct, 2009
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Posted: #5
Good Luck Tonight...
 
Banned
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Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 16326
Posted: #6

ALL THAT TIME AND EFFORT TO BASICLY FLIP A COIN AND HAVE A 50.50 CHANCE I WAS HOPING YOU WOULD GET IT FIGURED OUT  BUT I AGREE IT JUST HASNT BEEN VEY EFFECTIVE  FOR THE TIME CONSUMED   

HAPPY HOLIDAYS BEAVER

 
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Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 49
Posted: #7
I think you are pretty much saying that your theory is garbage. I think you need to find yourself a handicapper and just take his picks lol. You will last longer. I hear linelounge and RAS are good. both going 60%. ill let you choose lol. another 50/50 for you
 
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Posted: #8
I have been coming to covers for a long time and I have witnessed the success in years past. There is no reason to flame a guy who has developed a system rather than tailing someone else and blame others for the loss.

Your a smart dude that just needs to tinker your system and make some adjustments.  Im sure there is a nitch to the market you trade, you just have to find the deeper numbers. consider what is moving the line so much. injuries, prime time game, revenge. All are factors but what is the motivation behind the line move.

A reason I point this out is because I live in Florida a friend lives in NY.  Each of us using locals, we would get middles of three to four points. This became very profitable over time, but as Vegas adjusted those middles dried up. But the message is... different regions can influence a line based based on fan favorite. 

Make your adjustments. Do you think Vegas doesn't adjust? For ever evolving.

GL and get that LOOT.

 
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Posted: #9
Utep +3
Miami OH +4
S Dakota +1.5
UMKC +9
N.AZ +1
S Car St +15.5
Loyola Marymount +4.5


 
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Posted: #10
System has been doing very well as of late.  Sorry I haven't posted plays...hopefully some of you are following on your own.

BOL to all
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 49
Posted: #11
hey man post the play,I have always followed and waited for your return. thanks
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 217
Posted: #12
Beav...I've always been a fan bro but if you're gonna lead us down the system road then you gotta be there through thick and thin...
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