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Vegas vs KenPom Week 2

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Thursday Recap:

For the night: 4-2 (67%)

For the week: 12-9 (57%)

For the year: 34-27 (56%) ???

Friday plays coming soon


Nice work tonight Beaver.  I'm bombed on beers and finally won $$ because of you.

Do it again.  Do it again.
 
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Posted: #77
I missed that one Beaver, 
And Beaver, dont even feed into defending urself on here. Anyone who is pointing out that it cant work.. they should fuck off.. we are merely trying to find ways that can work. If u have a better idea show us/it.  
Anyhow, Beaver i was thiking that we have to come up with another way to use this data. Instead of just going off the difference in the spread vs kenpom score. Now i dont know what that variable or qualative data would be. But i think we need something else to fine tune it. 
 
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Posted: #78
What do you have in mind?
 
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Posted: #79
Fuck i dont know yet,  i am just throwing it out there as I think we need another tool to add value to this idea.  Well we know that kenpom doesnt factor into it's lines injuries or rivalry games but we know does.  I am just thinking out loud here but maybe looking into how a team is playing its last 10 games and comparing the teams a bit more with styles and player types.  Like i said i dont know yet but i was hoping to come up with something that gives us less games out of our criteria and maybe a higher overall percent. Anyone else reading have an idea. 
 
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Posted: #80
Also, if we can figure it out, cause we dont have all the info which team has the best most complete player on the court. 
 
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Posted: #81
lastly, i lost on this tonight but i think it was a great bet regardless. I bet South Florida in football. One would think the line for the game should have been West V minus 6 based upon record and stats but it was only west v minus 1 then too 2 despite all the public money on west v. The sharp money was on USF. And usf had their chance 2 win if not for a fumble on west v 26 yardline with 2  min left. West V went to win by a fg.  Anyhow, i went with the reverse line movement. I know you are familar with this too. 
 
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Posted: #82
I dont know man, it seems to be working pretty well so far, including the first couple tracking weeks this system is 62-41 (over 60%).  I'm thinking lets not fix what isn't broken. 
 
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Posted: #83
TRY MONEY LINE PARLAYS BEST 3 HOME TEAMS WATCH THE CASH ROLL IN BROTHER LIKE SYRACUSE MONEY LINE AND POSSIBLE CARDS MONEYLINE   SIMPLIFY IT TO PICKING JUST A WINNER WATCH YOUR ACCURACY
 
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Posted: #84
THERES THE FILTER THE MISSING LINK HELL WITH THE SPREAD STRING A FEW OUT RIGHT WINNERS TOGETHER TO INCREASE ODDS BETTER PAY OUTS GIVE IT A TRY IVE BEEN ADJUSTING THIS SYSTEM SINCE LAST YEAR AND FOUND THIS HAS WORKED ADVANTAGE /HOME TEAM LINE MOVEMENT INCREASED FROM 3 TO 6 FROM VEGAS GO WITH VEGAS LIKE TOMORROW SYRACUSE -3 KP =6 VEGAS TAKE THE CUSE AT HOME MONEY LINE SURE WINNER
 
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Posted: #85
beaver, u ever take notice of the line moves on your plays and the results of those moves? not sure but i notice that those favs win when the lines go down, i.e. boise from -7.5 to -5.5, cal poly -15 to -13, usc -6 to -4, zags -12 to -10 , app.st. -12 to -11, w.caro -1 to +1. lasalle -7 to -5. just something that i have following with you plays.  of course there were some that lost but most won on those moves.
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:

im on st pete and depaul cleve st  keep up the great wk id add a filter edge on home teams


Dude, you would've lost with that moneyline parlay thing tonight.  And your thoughts are so scattered and filled with bright colors and light bulbs.  Your hard to understand brotha


 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by da_scoops:

beaver, u ever take notice of the line moves on your plays and the results of those moves? not sure but i notice that those favs win when the lines go down, i.e. boise from -7.5 to -5.5, cal poly -15 to -13, usc -6 to -4, zags -12 to -10 , app.st. -12 to -11, w.caro -1 to +1. lasalle -7 to -5. just something that i have following with you plays.  of course there were some that lost but most won on those moves.


Thats very interesting, I haven't noticed....but that could definitely be something to keep an eye on.  Keep me posted if the trend continues
 
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Posted: #88
I like what Da scoops had to offer, thats kinda what i am talking about Beaver. Looking at some other aspect of the data that gives us a more narrow yet accurate pick.  However, i dont think this Ken data will be truelly useful until we are in conference play.. this is still way to early in the season. 
 
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Posted: #89
Are you doing any o/u's?
 
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Posted: #90
NOT HERE TO BASH BUT COVERS CONTEST PERCENTAGES ARE ALWAYS WAY OFF. USE SCORESANDODDS.COM TO GET YOUR "TRUE" 65% AND OVER PERCENTAGES
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by Hawk_You:

NOT HERE TO BASH BUT COVERS CONTEST PERCENTAGES ARE ALWAYS WAY OFF. USE SCORESANDODDS.COM TO GET YOUR "TRUE" 65% AND OVER PERCENTAGES


Thanks for the tip hawk, I will check it out....but if you don't mind me asking, how do you know? 
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

Are you doing any o/u's?


I haven't done any Totals yet, but it might work just as well as the sides.  Not sure
 
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Posted: #93

This thread is making me want to rip my eyes out of my head!

You NEVER lose money if you are playing basic bets laying normal juice and you win at a 55% clip.  Vegas only looks for 58% or higher for their sharps. 

Sure...if you have only mad 20 bets, lets say, at $110 each you're only up $110....BUT YOU'RE UP!!!

The longer you go at that percentage the more the money just keeps on coming.  Hell, i'll take 55% every day of the week!

 
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Posted: #94
*made
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by Atherton:

This thread is making me want to rip my eyes out of my head!

You NEVER lose money if you are playing basic bets laying normal juice and you win at a 55% clip.  Vegas only looks for 58% or higher for their sharps. 

Sure...if you have only mad 20 bets, lets say, at $110 each you're only up $110....BUT YOU'RE UP!!!

The longer you go at that percentage the more the money just keeps on coming.  Hell, i'll take 55% every day of the week!





Its hard to argue with dumb people
 
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Posted: #96
Official Friday Plays:

Florida +6.5
Canisius +13.5
Nevada +4


 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by Atherton:

This thread is making me want to rip my eyes out of my head!

You NEVER lose money if you are playing basic bets laying normal juice and you win at a 55% clip.  Vegas only looks for 58% or higher for their sharps. 

Sure...if you have only mad 20 bets, lets say, at $110 each you're only up $110....BUT YOU'RE UP!!!

The longer you go at that percentage the more the money just keeps on coming.  Hell, i'll take 55% every day of the week!



20x$110=$2,200 

So you are willing to risk over 2 G's to win or "be up"  $110.

Hmm.  I must be dumb.
 
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Posted: #98
[Quote: Originally Posted by beaverfan23] Official Friday Plays:

Florida +6.5
Canisius +13.5
Nevada +4


Love the pics Beaver.

Lets Go!!!!
 
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Posted: #99

beaver

your dogs this week when the line went up i.e duke +5 to +8 lost

FIU +8 to +9.5 lost, ntex +19 to +23 won. the other dogs that didn't move won.  something to watch. GL

 
 
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Posted: #100
Canius starting pg and best player is not playing 2nite... that might be a good reason not to play them. 
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