VEGASJACK College Hoops Research & Plays 11/7-11/13

There is not too much to say about this game aside from the fact that it is a phenomenal fade of Butler and a tremendous spot for Evansville.

This is motivational and situational handicapping at its finest.

Butler is coming off back to back championship game losses. Only difference is this year, they will not have ANYONE they had from last season. Well, maybe a slight exaggeration. They will have two seniors, Ronald Nored and Garrett Butcher. Lost from those two runner up teams are heart and soul, Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack, Shawn Vanzant.

This Butler team looked extremely inexperienced and uncoordinated in preseason play against Northern State (who?) and Franklin University.

Evansville on the other hand opens up this season in a brand new stadium. For the first time in 55 years, Evansville will play a home game outside of Robert Stadium. A new playing venue is always a major motivation boost. Everyone wants to christen in the home with a victory, especially against an instate rival.

This line opened up with the Aces as a 3.5 point home dog and has not moved an inch despite nearly 9 of every 10 bets coming in on Butler. With a majority of the big name teams playing yesterday and today being a big college football card, this handle is minimal, but is the second biggest of the college hoops card.

The last four runner ups from the championship game have failed to cover their first game the next season, I expect this to be five as Evansville gets the job done over the Butler Bulldogs this afternoon.

Evansville Aces +3.5 5*

Play Over any total of 155 or higher when both teams are coming off victories in their last game.

Play Under any total of 115 or lower when both teams are coming off victories in their last game.

Past three seasons: 56.69% win rate.

Common Strength + Common Strength = One Dimensional Outcome.

In order for a total to be extreme high or low, you must have exceptionally offensive or defensive minded teams playing against each other.

College athletes have short term memories. When a team that is “extreme” gets a victory, it is always due to playing to their particular strength. Coming off a victory, players tend to go with what worked last game. When matched up against an opponent with a common strength, the game becomes one dimensional. I find each team’s strength gets enhanced by the mirror image opponent.

The only factor working against this trend is line movement. Oddsmakers are tremendously sensitive with extreme totals. When money comes in in favor of the extreme, the line responds instantly.

When playing extremes, I lock my bet in as early as possible to ensure the best price. 

VMI AIR FORCE OVER 160 5*

That was my line of reasoning for betting the airforce under last night and somehow they scored 87 points. Not falling for that trick again. VMI presses and jacks up from all over so air force will get a lot of easy buckets tonight.

The VMI game is strictly a situational play. I covered that situation on here and in detail in a preview column I had on The Sports Network.

One thing about college hoops, and football for that matter (example Nebraska vs. Penn State today) that is different from other sports is the home team controls the pace of play and tempo 99 out of 100 games, regardless if they are home or away team.

Air force showed they can fall into that style of play last game and will again today. Remember, big weekend for both these schools, late game, this will be a show more then anything.

Over, over, over.

I expect this game to hit the high 160's or into the 170's.