I believe Virginia got a great draw for their play in game.
This is a true match-up of Offense vs Defense. As bad as Virginia has looked at times, they still rank 9th in the country in defensive efficiency. Colorado St doesn't play much defense, ranking 138th. However, the Rams rank a solid 43rd in offensive efficiency, while Virginia is really sad at 236th. Yet, the Cavs still managed to go 23-10 - while finishing 3rd in the ACC at 13-7, behind only North Carolina and Duke. 3rd place in the ACC behind just NC and Duke is pretty damn solid. And they did it all with defense. Colorado St has a nice record as well going 24-10, but finished 7th in the Mountain West where they were just 10-8. That doesn't impress me.
In Colorado State's 10 losses, only one team (UNLV) ranked worse in defensive efficiency. And it wasn't much lower, just 16 spots at 154th. In other words, they struggle against teams that play D. I expect them to struggle against one of the best in Virginia. Virginia does have problems against teams that can rebound as they rank 246th in that area. However, Colorado St is not a good rebounding team, coming in at 202nd. So, I think boards become a moot point as both teams play relatively small.
Bottom line for me - Virginia's style is just a bad match-up for the Rams. They play the popular Pack Line Defense. It's a man-to-man defense that emphasizes help on penetration, forcing teams to beat you from the perimeter. Colorado St ranks 146th from beyond the arc. This doesn't bode well for the Rams best player, Isiah Stevens. The 6 foot guard is going to need his teammates to hit shots (with hands in their faces) because Virginia isn't going to let Stevens beat them like he has often done against lesser defensive opponents. Oddly, Virginia ranks 36th in the country in 3 point shooting, so advantage Cavs if this becomes a 3 pt contest.
Lastly, Virginia comes in with a chip on their shoulder as many talking heads have questioned their inclusion in the tournament. They're going to have something to prove and I believe they'll take it out on the Rams. The Rams also seem to be looking past Virginia. Their head coach is already talking to them about play-in teams going to the final four, elite 8, and sweet 16. Listen Coach Medved, you might want to focus on beating one of the better programs in college basketball before you start dreaming about a final 4 run. Tony Bennett knows all too well about looking ahead.
The line currently sits at Virginia +3. I'm not sure if this will move much, but I'll be surprised to see 3.5 or 4. So, I grabbed it now. I also hit the Moneyline at +140.
Cheers and I wish everyone the BOL 
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