I have been knocked on my butt, by the Flu or a bad case of Bronchitis and running a fever since Saturday night. Got to the Doc this morning so should be back on the rebound in a day or two. I will update my record tomorrow or Thursday when I am feeing a little better.
Gonna tread lightly here for a few days, because capping games sick and with a fever is a sure recipe to lose money, but being from KY and going to school at both Louisville and KY, I have to weigh in on this game.
KY -1.5 over Louisville
There is no more important game in the State of KY each year then when these two teams meet. It is like the Hatfield's and McCoy's of basketball. Both teams will have equal representation at the game as Lexington, KY is just 60 miles east of Louisville and KY has enough alumni in Louisville with money to buy every seat in the Arena. Also, it does not bother me that this game is in Louisville as the Road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
There is only one thing that concerns me about KY in this game "if anything" is their big win against N. Carolina this weekend, but these kids know how important this game is, so there should be not let down.
Both Teams have an excellent RPI with KY #8 and Louisville #11.
Strength of schedule favors KY slightly #14 vs. Louisville at #27.
I think on a scale of talent KY is an easy 10 and Louisville is about an 8. On depth of bench, I think KY is also about a 10, with Louisville around a 7. I think this depth issue will come into play late in the game as the Louisville players will be exhausted from trying to play their pressure defense against KY for 40 minutes.
Here is where the rubber also meets the road, whether the game is at KFC YUM Center in Louisville or RUPP Arena in KY the KY Wildcats have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.
Could Louisville pull the minor upset as a +1.5 point dog? Sure, but they will have to play their best game of the season and hope for KY to struggle.
Louisville has a 7 point win over Purdue in Louisville, but I think Purdue is the better team. Purdue came out cold as ice in the first half and trailed 19-33 at half-time and actually won the 2nd half 45-38. In this game Purdue shot poorly at 35%, while Louisville shot above their average at 48.5%
Calipari knows how big this game is to all of the KY Alumni and he will have his team ready. It is also and incredibly huge game for the student body for bragging rights in the state of KY. Louisville is like the little brother to the University of KY and you treat the little brother nice, but you never let him win.
Laying -1.5 with KY causes me no concern at all with a "back door" or any other type of cover. In the past 9 meetings between these teams with KY winning 8 the score has never been decided by less than 2 points and the average margin of victory has been 7.
BOL!!!!
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