Sam Houston/Stephen Austin
I told myself if this total came out north of a 100, I’d take a look. Just a lean here b/c I’m a box. Two slowest teams in the conference. Both defenses trump the other’s offense. Two teams hit 105 this year, and the 340th ranked three-point shooting team in the country shot 50% from the perimeter. Both teams hammer the ball inside (to give you an idea Sam Houston plays a zone and Austin only took 12 three’s that meeting). Both teams defend the inside well. Both early meetings stayed well below 60 possessions in regulation. If you look at the game that was close, the OT period hit 9 possessions a piece and only yielded 11 points. Same scenario today, both teams are fighting for the playoff bid, should get the exact style that I saw in the OT session. Two teams are mirror images in terms of match-ups. One team holds an offensive advantage inside, but that’s taken away with the other’s ability to defend the inside.
East Carolina/Rice
Two fast paced teams that I feel have under-achieved on the year to a great deal. Seems as if both have given me nights of having tremendous advantages that favor their team and just haven’t shown up. Crossed her off right away.
Bama A&M/Texas Southern
Really interesting match-up here, and another game I’m going to point to the over based on a few scenarios. First, both teams are speed demons as both teams are more focused on quantity over quality in the grand scheme of things. Both meetings this year hit 73 possessions, an extremely high amount of possession for such a low listed total here. In those games, the shot attempts totaled 108 and 93. That’s certainly alarming in taking part in any under. But here’s the thing, both attack the rim consistenly. The only reason the shot attempts are low is b/c both got to the foul line a ton, and in fact, both games hit the 57 and 58 FT attempt mark. Neither team can make a FT to save their life, but with that many attempts, the value is gonna be there. Texas Southern employs a zone, but it’s a different type of zone. They look to trap across half court at a few designated spots on the floor, and in return leads them to many transition opportunities for layups, and again, the opportunity to get fouled in transition, something they do extremely well, and something that A&M doesn’t. They foul at an alarming rate. As is the case with EWU last night, almost every member on the team commits three fouls per 40 minutes and they’re one of the leading teams in the country in bench minutes b/c they foul so much. Neither of these teams are all that tall (although Texas Southern will have a big advantage in the paint), and the two teams again are built on getting out and going. Normally I would shy away from overs with a zone defense present, but not this one as it forces turnovers, and really looks to force the pace. All in all, this is probably a game that relies on guard play, and when you get that, you get a free flow up and down game with tons of attacking, tons of fouls, and an all around ugly type of game. Anything that comes from the three-point line, or the offensive glass (both are decent) are simply a bonus here.
Washington State/Oregon State
I’ve talked a bit this year about players getting into daily routines, but haven’t talked as much about it as I have in past years. But this situation today presents itself as an automatic cross-off game for me. In a combined total of 60 ball games, Oregon State and Washington State have only played a total of 5 games before 5pm. The stat itself is probably not shocking as both lie on the West Coast, but it is certainly noteworthy. Oregon State’s opponents in day games: Towson & Cal State Bakersfield. Washington State’s opponents in day games: UC Riverside, Santa Clara, and Colorado. My point is, capping a game outside the realm these two teams are comfortable playing in is impossible to me.
Hampton/Savannah State
Pretty much goes back to the Winthrop/Campbell game a week ago in about exact detail. Simply put, both teams defend, and more of a case of me trusting Joyner a bit more than trusting Savannah State. These two teams haven’t played since December of this year, a 16 point loss by Hampton. Hampton’s gone to a bigger lineup since then. More size at the guard spot, and in the interior, and along with that, they’ve seen a bump in their offense as well. Here’s the thing with Savannah State, their offense is certainly nothing special. They have been winning games based solely on their defense. Yes, Savannah State has won 13 games in a row, in fact, they’ve covered this # in their last 8 trips to the court. I realize this. That’s the good news. The bad news is, this team hasn’t played a game in 6 days. And that’s...
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
