Wednesday Hoops

Bol Neil Thank you for all your hard work!!

Just wanted to update everyone on some inside info I just received. A's you all know, ULM is really struggling right now because of APR issues and budget concerns. ULM will be traveled by bus yesterday to Knoxville which is a 12 hour ride greyhound style. They weren't able to leave until 2:30 central time going into EST making it roughly a 15 hour ride with stopping to eat. Add in the fact that they will be without a starter that will not be travelling due to academic concerns and puts them at 6 scholarship players. Ndongo will not be with the team and though he is not very good, it is another body against an in your face man- man defense that Martin will apply tonight. I understand that UT could be looking ahead but even so I cant see ULM getting to 50 because lack of offense (48.5) per game, along with no depth and the travel with 3 games in 6 days.

Just wanted to update everyone on some inside info I just received. A's you all know, ULM is really struggling right now because of APR issues and budget concerns. ULM will be traveled by bus yesterday to Knoxville which is a 12 hour ride greyhound style. They weren't able to leave until 2:30 central time going into EST making it roughly a 15 hour ride with stopping to eat. Add in the fact that they will be without a starter that will not be travelling due to academic concerns and puts them at 6 scholarship players. Ndongo will not be with the team and though he is not very good, it is another body against an in your face man- man defense that Martin will apply tonight. I understand that UT could be looking ahead but even so I cant see ULM getting to 50 because lack of offense (48.5) per game, along with no depth and the travel with 3 games in 6 days.

Thanx and GL NROPP

Having problems posting and apologize if this shows up multiple times:

Just wanted to update everyone on some inside info I just received. A's you all know, ULM is really struggling right now because of APR issues and budget concerns. ULM will be traveled by bus yesterday to Knoxville which is a 12 hour ride greyhound style. They weren't able to leave until 2:30 central time going into EST making it roughly a 15 hour ride with stopping to eat. Add in the fact that they will be without a starter that will not be travelling due to academic concerns and puts them at 6 scholarship players. Ndongo will not be with the team and though he is not very good, it is another body against an in your face man- man defense that Martin will apply tonight. I understand that UT could be looking ahead but even so I cant see ULM getting to 50 because lack of offense (48.5) per game, along with no depth, harsh traveling, 3 games in 6 days. Just won't be able to score. Any thoughts nrop??

Hard not to like Creighton this year,  McDermott kid is so skilled, Echinique has only improved and overakk the team is better.  Creighton definitely has one of the best non-BCS home court advantages and this is not an easy road game....but first game for UAB makes it interesting.

Neil you done with football?  2 MAC games tonight.....

I like some good matchups tonight. Picks:

Long Beach State (+13.5)@ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is overrated and Long Beach State has 4 seniors this year that need to make a statement for the NCAA tourney. Expect this game to be tight all the way down and I believe LBS can actually win, should be close enough to cover 14 points at least (buy the half point fellas).

Indiana (-4) @ Evansville

I bought the two points to make it -2 but I believe -3 would be fine. Don't be fooled by the OT win over Butler, it is a rebuilding year for Butler. Also, Tom Crean has a lot on the line and he has the better team in this matchup. I don't particularly like Indiana's team without Maurice Creek but the matchup here easily favors Indiana and is not purely name recognition. (By the way Butler should have won the game they blew it) Take Indiana.

Lean- Boise State over Utah (-6), Boise State is at home and the lineup Utah is trotting out couldn't beat D-II teams. I take the home team but I wish the line was lower, will buy points to make it -3 if I get a chance but line is on the move...

Lean- Hofstra +9.5 @ Oregon State- Nropp11s right up is about as perfect as it gets. Oregon State is not good and Hofstra should shoot a load of 3s. Cover is easy enough and win if they get real hot on 3s. Don't have the balls to take Hofstra ML on this though.

NROPP - GLAD TO SEE YOUR IN-DEPTH ANALYIS AS USUAL: DIDN'T POST BUT DID WELL YESTERDAY ON 24-HOUR MARATHON ON TV.  BASED ON WHAT I SAW I WOULD SAY DUKE WON'T BE LIFTING ANY BANNERS AT THE NCAA, NOR MICHIGAN, NOR OHIO STATE.  KENTUCKY HAS IT 'DIAPER DANEES" WITH THE EMPHASIS ON DIAPER (YOUNG BUT WILL MOVE UP THE DIAPER CHAIN IF THEY GUARD PLAY IMPROVES.  KANSAS IS NOT THE KANSAS OF THE PAST.   LOUISVILLE, SYRACUSE, AND THEN SOME OF THE MID-TIER TEAMS WILL MAKE IT AN INTERESTING YEAR.  OKLA STATE TONIGHT BIG, ALONG WITH THE CADETS TO COVER, AND INDIANA TO BREAK THEIR LOSING STREAK EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR ONCE.

Hey bud, good stuff.  I think you lose alot of people though who don't wanna sift thru an entire page.   Any chance you can break down each game individually (small paragraphs).  Just a thought, haha

Neil,

I spent an hour looking at the Hofstra game today and my uneducated #'s come up with ORE -3 so alot closer to your pk then the current of 10? What is it we are missing? I will take a shot on the ML along with the game but as you know I really focus on totals. Has anyone else (a true capper with a modeling system) really spent some time on this game? Interesting what you may find. Hunter? STUCKEY? let us know what your info tells you?

thank you




I crunched numbers and analyzed this Hofstra/Oregon State game for the better part of my Tuesday and couldn’t quite come up with why I kept making this game a PK. Am I overvaluing Hoftstra, even with the loss of Jenkins? Am I too low on Oregon State having lost three seniors? Hours later, I was back to where I started. Can I really trust Hofstra going across country and competing with a P-12 program who has had two convincing wins at home already? I’m still without an answer. Hofstra’s opener come season’s end will look like a good win, as I expect Long Island to come out of that conference as the champ, or at least contend with Robert Morris. Then again, Oregon State’s been impressive, albeit against awful competition who are not familiar going against a 1-3-1 zone that Oregon State deploys a majority of the time. Maybe I’m reading too much into the fact that Hofstra has decent enough guards and enough weapons from the outside and enough athleticism to go toe to toe with Oregon State and make this an up-tempo game if OSU chooses to do so. Hofstra really doesn’t match up well on the inside, but I can give that up if this game is up and down (hoping they use the 2-3 zone a bit defensively, not all that scared of any OSU shooters). I really don’t know. The travel scares me and the fact that Oregon State gets Texas on Saturday makes me all warm and fuzzy on the inside, but aside from that I’ve looked at this game a bit too long to pass on the value, and I’m sure this is a spot where I learn from a mistake – sometimes it’s unavoidable. Also point to the under here probably if I think we see as much zone defense on both sides as what I expect. [/Quote]

g/l and thanks for your hard work

Nropp any insight on Long Beach State tonight?

 

Got ya going 7-6, -3.0.Correct me if i'm wrong

Posted: 11/15/2011 7:23:44 AM

4-3, -0.40

Leans: (2-6)

3* Belmont/Memphis Under 145 LOSER

2* Florida +10 WINNER

2* Austin Peay/Cal Over 145 LOSER

1* Central Michigan +2.5 WINNER

1* St. Louis/Southern Illinois Under 121 WINNER

1* Florida ML +450 LOSER

Leans: (Rhode Island/Texas Under 143, Elon +5, Chattanooga/Butler Under 140, NCO/Wyoming Under 140, Arkansas State +3, Utah State/Weber State Over 128)

7-6, -3.0

Nice job as usual,thanks

Hey NRopp...it's a polish middle to me. If he lays 4 on UAB and lays 1 on Creighton and the game lands UAB 1 or 2, he loses both.....anyway, always good to see you...had us all scared with the Jimmy Hoffa rumors that you had disappeared earlier this year and may not be with us anymore....glad you are ok...

Anyway, I think Creighton has talent but has possibly one of the worst head coaches in Division 1 basketball. McDermott is clueless and was the worst hire possible. he has no game plan, doesn't communicate with his players and is hated. When he was at Iowa State, 29 out of 33 players left his program withour graduating and many transferred. Creighton probably has the best talent in the MVC this year but the real enigma is Gregory Ecehenique, who I feel could easily be a second round draft pick, but McDermott has no clue how to use him. He was the leading rebounder in the Bog East as a freshman and had all sorts of potential but McDermott uses him just 20 minutes a game. When he gets the ball, he is extremely efficient. Doug McDermott is possibly the best player in the Valley. Antoine Young is a very solid PG. He's not the better shooter in the world but has a very solid assist to turnover ratio. Jahenns Manigat has really stepped up his game early on and the Bluejays have a lot of depth. The one thing that hurt Creighton the most last year was they don't pressure the ball on defense and I think they ranked 2nd worst in the country in creating turnovers. McDermott has athletes and depth and needs to pressure the ball more. In addition, McDermott is horrible at making halftime adjustments and the Bluejays often struggled to score in the second half in games last year. Tonight's an interesting matchup as UAB has size upfront to offset Echenique, who has struggled in his first two games and I understand he is overcoming a concussion. Overall, I expect them to be 1st or 2nd in the MVC but they must pressure the ball and learn to play on the road. I lean towards Creighton +3 tonight. Best of luck!

Great write up Neil as always and love the plays!

No SEMO?

 

bol

nropp11,

I sent you a PM. f you get time, check it out.

Thanks for all your work

trackem