Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 37-23, +55.65
March Leans: 19-17
Minnesota/LaSalle
Classic case of Minnesota coming off four snails in a row into an up and down style here, with the most recent games coming against an itty bitty version of the Princeton offense (both going into OT) into nothing like it here. LaSalle’s going to push the pace, Minnesota hasn’t shyed away from it against up-tempo teams and I just don’t think they have enough offense to go up and down against a team who only owns two home losses on the year (and both come against NCAA tournament teams in STL and Temple). Minnesota didn’t play a single non-conference true road game, so going into tiny Tom Gola Arena might be a bit of a shock (it only seats 4000) along with the fact they’re getting Sampson back into the mix having not played with him in the mix since the regular season finale.
Manhattan/Albany
Really good match-up of scorer versus scorer here in Beamon and Suero as their pretty similar type players. The question here is how much does Manhattan have left in the tank. The up-tempo pressure from one baseline to the other has seem to have caught up with them, and something that Albany is use to facing as they exhibit a very similar style within the game itself. You’ll notice that Albany is a bit banged up, a few post players have been injured, might or might not play tonight, and I’m OK with that. The injuries open up more opportunities for guards to shine in an up-tempo game that I expect this to be. With Manhattan, you have a team that’s played it’s last four games without it’s focal point in the half court offense in Alvarado. They’re 2-3 since, a couple losses to Siena, and a couple wins to teams that can’t take care of the basketball in NC Wilmington and Canisius. The ended the season with a heartbreaking loss at Loyola MD, coupled with a bad draw to a Siena team that just beat them. They have not played in 11 days, and all four of their victories in February came against teams who rank #260+ in turnover percentage in the country. Albany’s much better than that in terms of taking care of the ball, along with the fact that a few more guards will get some action tonight. All in all, this is a big game for Albany at home. Their out of conference home games on the year came against Navy, Farleigh Dickinson, Colgate, Dartmouth, and Rider (whom they beat in the bracket buster game who comes from the same conference as Manhattan).
Buffalo/American
Weird game of complete opposite style teams. Buffalo wants to get up and down, and utilize their bigs in the half court. American’s like a Denver type of squad with the fact that they play pretty slow, but are deadly from beyond the arc. Would probably lean American here, but going to point to the over instead. Buffalo plays a zone, one that doesn’t really exhibit too much pressure on the outside, so American’s three’s they throw up will be open shots. On the other side of things, American defends guards extremely well, but they have some issues within the match-ups in the paint here. I leaned American b/c the guard pressure sort of denies those touches in the paint or at least some of them, but if Buffalo can just get itself going on the inside, it’s going to open up some opportunities to score from the outside. American’s played up to ten top 100 offenses this year, with all but one of those a game where they yielded less than 60 (and that was snail Bucknell). The fact that Buffalo uses a zone should speed up a game like this.
North Dakota/Drake
I’m a big fan of Drake’s offense, and North Dakota’s pressure is only going to help things and open up more chances to score. In terms of pace, I don’t think either wants to slow down. Here’s Drake’s possession totals against the top half in terms of pace in the Valley: 65, 69, 71, 89, 69, 71, 73, 69, 68 and 71. North Dakota comes from the fastest conference in the country and they’ve been playing one style the whole year. The fact that they took Western Illinois to 68 possessions earlier in the year is certainly remarkable with the snail pace that WIU plays, and the fact that they played at an MVC school already this year and went to 81 possessions and a 147 point total helps as well (Bradley on 11/19). They also yield 73+ on the road for the year. A little concern with Drake having some time off, but this will be the style of game they enjoy offensively. No travel issues for North Dakota, they’re making the trip from Chicago after winning the Big West tournament over the weekend, so the high octane pace brings in a bit of momentum.
No time for the rest...
5* Albany +2
5* Illinois State/Ole Miss Over 133
3* North Dakota/Drake Over 133.5
2* Western Illinois +11
2* Buffalo/American Over 134
2* Lasalle -2.5
Lean: Bowling Green +4
Lean: Lamar -1.5
Lean: North Dakota State +9
Lean: Rice/UL Lafayette Under 141
GL
0
...
but otherwise solid work as always, GL
potential.
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